Honest conviction is my courage; the Constitution is my guide.
- Andrew Johnson
SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE: Yesterday the former Chief of Staff to Speaker Ryan took us through the timeline for a number of issues moving on Capitol Hill with the focus being ACA repeal and the importance of replacing it quickly. We’ve stated many time over the past few months that Senate has to deal with more arcane procedural rules than the House and scheduling time on the floor requires weeks (sometimes months) of planning. A large chunk of that time will be continue to be consumed by confirming President Trump’s Cabinet and sub-Cabinet nominations, catching up with the House on CRA (House has overturned 13, the Senate only three) and two weeks for the Gorsuch SCOTUS nomination (last week of March/first week of April). We’ll be sending out a more detailed analysis of our call with him in conjunction with our colleague Emily Evans later today.
REVVING UP REPEAL: ACA repeal takes a major step forward next week as the House Energy and Commerce Committee plans to hold a markup on the legislation. Republicans are moving forward with getting rid of the healthcare law even as division remains within the party on Medicaid expansion and a refundable tax credit. The bill that will be marked up will repeal the extra federal funds for the ACA’s Medicaid expansion starting in 2020. At the current pace though the bill may be marked up and voted on before the CBO score shows how much the bill would cost and how many people would lose coverage.
EN FUEGO ECONOMIC DATA: One criticism of the impressive Trump stock market rally? Economic data fueling investor exuberance is simply “soft data.” Bearish naysayers claim while U.S. consumer confidence is at 15-year highs, this optimism hasn’t translated into tangible economic growth. Well, that’s not entirely true. This week, U.S. Consumer Confidence hit 114.8 for the month of February, a new high versus 111.6 the prior month. More importantly, that was followed up by headline ISM Manufacturing and New Orders rising to 31 month and 39 month highs, respectively, according to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Meanwhile, sales backlogs saw their biggest sequential increase in 49 months, rising to their highest level in three years. On the news, the S&P 500 notched yet another all-time high yesterday. That brings the post-Election stock market rally to +12.4%. Talk about hard data!
GETTING THE GANG BACK TOGETHER:One of the major takeaways from President Trump’s address came from his bipartisan push for immigration reform. Although he didn’t give specific details, Trump still opposes a pathway to citizenship option for the 11 million undocumented immigrants, but is willing to offer them some sort of legal status that would allow them to stay. He also appears willing to cave on citizenship for “Dreamers.” Whether Democrats are willing to get on board remains to be seen, but it wasn't that long ago when comprehensive immigration reform did receive bipartisan support from the Gang of Eight...
SINCLAIR-TRIBUNE DEAL WOULD LIKELY WIN APPROVAL: Our Senior Telecom and Media Policy Analyst Paul Glenchur writes a combo of SBGI and TRCO, if proposed, would likely win regulatory approval despite existing regulatory limits. You can read the full piece here.
