Our country may be likened to a new house. We lack many things, but we possess the most precious of all - liberty!
-James Monroe
GROWTH SPURT: It didn’t taken long for Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin to exert his influence in his new job. Mnuchin wants Congress to pass tax reform by the August Congressional recess and believes that a tax plan focused on middle income tax cuts and a simplified business tax can lead to three percent GDP growth. Mnuchin, who has been working closely with House and Senate leadership, believes we won’t see benefits from their tax plan until the end of 2018 - playing nicely into Republican plans for the midterms.
HOW TRUMP WILL TRANSFORM THE FED: By mid-2018, President Trump will have had the opportunity to nominate five people to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Five. Out of seven total! Here’s the rundown: The FOMC has two vacant seats, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer’s term expires 6/12/18 and Daniel Tarullo is resigning in April. Add in Trump’s incendiary campaign rhetoric and it’s safe to assume Janet Yellen won’t be offered a second four-year term as Fed chair on February 3, 2018. Candidates to be among Trump’s first appointees, writes our colleague Darius Dale: former FOMC governor Kevin Warsh, who recently chided the Fed as effectively “day trading” monetary policy, and Stanford economist John Taylor, who’s Taylor rule currently recommends a Fed Funds rate of 4% by year-end 2018.
START YOUR ENGINES:The auto industry is already leaning on EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt to help overturn Obama era regulations. The one particular regulation they want overturned is the strict vehicle emissions standards. Automakers have spoken out against the 2012 standard that they believe are too strong and too costly to implement. As the rule is now five years old the only way to overturn it is through a comprehensive regulatory process which will be led by Pruitt’s EPA.
DAMMIT, WE NEED AN INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND:Transportation and infrastructure spending continue to take a backseat on the Congressional agenda as tax reform, a SCOTUS nominee, ACA repeal, regulatory reform as well as a budget, appropriations, and a debt-ceiling extension remain the priority. It’s becoming more and more likely that President Trump’s massive infrastructure plan may have to wait until next year which could force Democrats to back the plan in the lead up to the midterms. What could change that timeline - well, last week we mentioned recent reports about our nation’s deficient bridges and this week we’re seeing the effects aging dams are having in California and Nevada. There’s nothing like a crisis to precipitate action in Washington...
HAS ANYONE SEEN A PHOENIX AROUND HERE?: Going into the final day of the race for DNC Chair, it’s a two-horse race between former Secretary of Labor Thomas Perez and Current MN Representative Keith Ellison. The winner of this race will be the face and soul of the Democrats as party attempts to rebuild after being torn asunder by Trump’s electoral college surprise in their stronghold. Perez, who is the slight front runner, represents the Obama branch of the party while Ellison represents the progressive Bern side of the party. Whoever ends up winning will need to unite Democrats to battle Trump and turn around a party in tatters at almost every level.
CALL INVITE: HOTSPOT KOREA: A FORMER COMMANDER’S VIEW: Join us on Monday, 27 Feb at 11AM EST to hear the four star former commander of U.S. and UN forces in Korea explain the chance of war there. You can find the dial in details here.
CALL INVITE: WILL CONGRESS PASS TRUMP'S AGENDA: AN ASSESSMENT FROM SPEAKER RYAN'S FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF: Join us for a call on March 1 with David Hoppe, Speaker Ryan's former CoS, the morning after President Trump's Address to a Joint Session of Congress. You can find the dial in details here.
