Unjust attacks on public men do them more good than unmerited praise.
-Rutherford B Hayes
TOUGH TRADE TALKS: Hill Republicans are growing increasingly worried about President Trump’s murky stance on trade - specifically what will replace the TPP and what he has in store for NAFTA. While Trump pledged to renegotiate trade deals that have “ripped off” American workers, lawmakers aren’t sure what his actual plan is going forward. To add to the uncertainty, Conservatives are none too pleased with Speaker Ryan’s 20 percent BAT on imports believing that it will cause a trade war - particularly with Mexico. To make matters worse, Ryan’s BAT proposal is already under fire in the Senate - led by Senate Majority Whip TX Senator John Cornyn - even before a bill has been dropped.
THE GAP WIDENS: In a move designed to lend further credence toward its stance on trade, the Trump Administration is considering plans to exclude re-exports from U.S. trade calculations. Changing the trade deficit calculation will inflate the gap between imports and exports, and the trade imbalance will appear greater between the U.S. and countries such as Mexico. While no decision on adopting this approach has been made, the discussions surrounding recalculating the trade deficit are indicative of wider tactics the Administration is likely to employ as it seeks to build its case to Congress for improved or renegotiated trade agreements.
COTTON MOUTH: Trump’s choice of Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster for National Security Advisor has received widespread acclaim from both Republicans and Democrats. And, It also shows the growing voice AR Senator Tom Cotton has on foreign policy matters within the White House. Cotton urged Reince Preibus, Steve Bannon, and Jared Kushner to consider McMaster for the position where he ended up on the shrinking short list. Cotton has also been a Trump champion on immigration and introduced a bill that overhauls the U.S. immigration system. It’s looking more and more like he is vying to be the voice of Trumpism in the Senate now that Jeff Sessions has joined the Administration.
CHANGE OF PLANS: Now that Trump has his EPA Administrator, Scott Pruitt, installed, he can begin overturning the climate and water rules he has in his crosshairs. Trump issued executive orders for the EPA to rewrite a 2015 rule that cracks down on greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants, and a rule that gave the federal government more regulatory power over waterways. The Clean Power Plan and the water rule are two of the more unpopular and overreaching rules from the Obama administration and Pruitt, a frequent adversary of the EPA, will take great pride working to overturn them.
IMMIGRATION REFORM - TAKE DOS: DHS Secretary John Kelly plans to expand immigration raids and the definition of criminal aliens, diminish sanctuary areas and use local law enforcement to carry out federal immigration policy. These continue to fall in line with Trump’s decision to expand the deportation of criminal immigrants and will allow DHS to hire 10,000 new immigration officers. Although certain policies are moving slowly, the quick pace of immigration reform is making up for it.
CALL INVITE: HOTSPOT KOREA: A FORMER COMMANDER’S VIEW: Join us on Monday, 27 Feb at 11AM EST to hear the four star former commander of U.S. and UN forces in Korea explain the chance of war there.
THE US RIG-COVERY: WHY OPEC’S PRODUCTION CUT PLAN IS NOT WORKING AS INTENDED: Our Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle writes that U.S. crude stocks and rig counts are rising as are new doubts about automatic extension of six month OPEC deal. You can read the full piece here.
