We must adjust to changing times and still hold to unchanging principles.
- Jimmy Carter
MEXICAN STANDOFF: Tensions between the U.S. and Mexico are reaching a boiling point. Following Trump’s signing of an executive order that begins the process of building the wall, President Enrique Pena Nieto cancelled his planned meeting with President Trump next week and Trump in turn agreed to cancel if Mexico has no plans to pay for the wall. Trump’s aim to shake up our trade deals is off to a blazing start as promised, but our relationships with our second and third largest trading partners are deteriorating quickly.
IN CASE OF FIRE, BREAK GLASS: Now that Trump is following through with the border wall, someone has to pay for it and it won’t be Mexico - for the time being. Speaker Ryan has proposed moving a supplemental spending bill that will pay for the wall at an estimated cost of $12-15 billion. If this plan falls through, the 2017 omnibus or continuing resolution that must be passed by the end of March could also be a vehicle to fund construction. Enter Trump’s back up plan - asking Congress to impose a 20% tariff on all imports from Mexico. Not likely given the already delicate dynamics of tax reform...
BROTHERLY LOVE: Fissures between the Trump Administration and Congressional Leadership have emerged in the first week on topics from voter fraud, torture, and tax reform. At a presser in the middle of the Republican retreat in Philadelphia, Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell distanced themselves from any talk of tension between the two branches and claim that they are working together toward agreed upon goals. Expect Ryan and McConnell to continue to focus on their agenda and turn the other cheek at President Trump’s more extreme positions and statements as long as their longstanding goals are met.
NOT QUITE SHOVEL READY: Republicans are trying to narrow their focus on what they must accomplish in the first 200 days. With one of the busiest schedules since the “Contract with America,” Congressional leaders are looking at moving an infrastructure bill down the list. With the main focus on ACA repeal, Tax Reform, and Regulatory reform, a massive infrastructure spend was the obvious candidate. Even House Transportation Chairman Bill Shuster is resigned to the fact that we won’t be seeing shovels in the ground for two or three years - but we still think movement in conjuction with, or towards the end of, the tax reform timetable - or later in the year is still likely especially if Trump starts to twist an arm or two - or 535.
VERIZON AND CHARTER? REALLY?: Our Senior Telecom & Media Policy Analyst Paul Glenchur rights about the rumors swirling about a Verizon deal with Charter. Absent details, we’re shooting in the dark, but regulatory risk would be big. You can read the full piece here.
