He's been in office only four days and President Trump is already ruffling feathers and following through on controversial promises he made during his campaign. Case in point is Trump's plans to sign two executive actions today advancing construction of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines.
Under Obama, Transcanada Corp's Keystone XL oil pipeline was rejected in 2015 after environmentalists campaigned against it for over seven years. Trump's action would be a boon for oil producers concerned about limited pipeline capacity bringing oil to market.
Here's a quick look at some other key issues investors should keep an eye right now from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.
"CARROT AND STICK" APPROACH
#Business #Regulations
Now that President Trump has been inaugurated, Republicans on the Hill are clamoring to get down to business. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy laid out the first 100 days for Congress with Republicans focusing on four major policies - healthcare, regulation, tax reform, and infrastructure.
While all of these have the support of the new president, in a meeting with business leaders President Trump enticed them with a cut of 75% (and potentially more) in regulations should they choose to keep manufacturing jobs here in the States. In this meeting, the stick was used to threaten them (and other business leaders) with a “major border tax” if they outsourced jobs overseas.
THERE’S A NEW TARIFF IN TOWN
#TPP #Trade #Trump
Following one of his first executive orders to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership ("TPP" -- a trade deal being negotiated between 12 nations who represent more 40% of the global economy), Trump has set his eyes to renegotiating NAFTA and making good on one of his major campaign promises.
While NAFTA’s goal was intended to eliminate most trade tariffs, increase investment and tighten protection of intellectual property, it has hurt the U.S. manufacturing industry. Trump plans to meet with the Canadian PM and the President of Mexico to begin the negotiations and ultimately overhauling the role of the U.S. and our approach to tariffs globally.
CFPB IN CONGRESSIONAL CROSSHAIRS
#DoddFrank #Congress
The Republican tax reform blueprint is slated to be unveiled in the second round of reconciliation, yet Republicans on the Hill may look to try and push Dodd-Frank reform through that same vehicle within the budgetary process. While the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) cannot be restructured under reconciliation, changing the funding structure can be achieved allowing Republicans to in essence shut down the CFPB’s power.
Republicans will still try to work with Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee, but if negotiations start to falter there could be a major push to squeeze it in with tax reform through the reconciliation process.
CUE THE HAWKS
#Spending #Deficit #OMB
South Carolina Rep. Mick Mulvaney, Trump's choice to lead the White House budget office, hails from the Tea Party wing of the Republican party. He is an avowed deficit hawk. With his confirmation hearing as OMB Director set for today, you can bet that newly installed Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and other defense hawks are watching closely for his sentiment on defense spending and sequestration in light of Mulvaney’s track record and fervent support of the latter.
Oh yeah, don’t forget about the new guy in the West Wing with big plans for the Pentagon.
ENDING THE SPENDING?
#DrainTheSwamp
President Trump and conservative Republicans in Congress plan to join hands and go after discretionary spending in the upcoming budget. But, they may meet with opposition within their own party.
Trump is looking to cut programs like the Legal Services Corporation, Essential Air Service program, and the International Trade Administration. It is setting up a conflict and drawing criticism from Senators who otherwise would have President Trump’s back given that many of these programs help industries in Republican states.
*OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST
ACA REPEAL AND REPLACE: STATE OF PLAY, EXECUTIVE ORDER EDITION: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans writes about Trump using one of his first executive orders to instruct agencies to relax regulation of federal health care programs including the ACA.
GENERAL DAN CHRISTMAN: NEW “TEAM TRUMP”: SEEING THROUGH A GLASS, DARKLY: LtGen Dan Christman takes us through the new president’s foreign policy.
*Email sales@hedgeye.com for more access to and information on our institutional research.
