Economic growth in the United States is accelerating. So is inflation. That’s what’s happening now according to the analysts on our Macro team.
In a nutshell for investors, that means:
- Stocks: Bullish
- Bonds: Bearish
- Gold: Bearish
It’s simple, says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in the video excerpt above. U.S. economic data is accelerating.
“Industrial production just slowed at a slower rate. Durable goods just slowed at a slower rate,” McCullough says. (For more on the U.S. economy check out “What The Media Missed: Retail Sales Not ‘Sluggish’ & Industrial Production Not In ‘Steep Decline.’)
Then there are classic “late cycle” economic indicators like employment. These metrics are the last shoe to drop when the economy finally rolls over. On that last point, there’s an interesting dichotomy developing between the Industrial and Cyclical sides of the economy, which appear to have bottomed, and the employment side, which continues to slow.
Here’s something to ponder. “What if it stops slowing?” McCullough asks.
Already, leading, sentiment-driven indicators of employment like consumer confidence and business propensity to hire are improving. “If these are leading indicators for [jobs growth] stop going down, that would be yet another feather in the bull case,” McCullough says.
The data doesn’t lie. For now, it says the U.S. economy is accelerating. So we’re staying bullish.
(It’s uncanny. This is literally the same market call McCullough made nearly four years ago, in 2013. For more, check out his last appearance on CNBC.)