RECENT NOTES
11/18/16 SJM | 2Q17 EARNINGS NOTE – BUFF IMPLICATIONS
11/17/16 HAIN | THE BAR IS NOT SET LOW ENOUGH
11/11/16 BUFF | QUICK TAKE | 3Q16 EARNINGS NOTE
11/10/16 FLO | QUICK TAKE | 3Q16 EARNINGS NOTE
11/10/16 USFD | NEW BEST IDEA LONG
11/10/16 POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | NEW STARTING LINEUP (KR, COST, USFD)
FUN FACT – Thanksgiving Day dinner for 10 people fell 24 cents from last year to $49.87
Consumers are expected to pay less than $5 per person this Thanksgiving. Turkey, pumpkin pie mix, milk and veggie trays led the declines year-over-year. (ARTICLE HERE)
RECENT NEWS
WMT | CONTINUES EFFORT TO REMAIN THE CHEAPEST GROCERY STORE
Ahold is the most recent victim of WMT’s efforts in the market place. But with KR self-identifying WMT as their primary competition at the majority of their locations, KR will continue to be affected by WMT’s actions.
LW | LAMB WESTON NAMES ROBERT MCNUTT CFO
Robert McNutt will become the CFO of Lamb Weston effective January 16, 2017. McNutt brings more than 30 years of finance experience to the company; he is currently the CFO of Expera Specialty Solutions, a specialty paper company.
RETAIL LOYALTY PROGRAMS HAVE GLOBAL APPEAL
Loyalty programs are an important aspect in retail, and we believe as WFM is able to ramp up their loyalty program they will see an improvement in their customers’ behavior.
MRS. GREEN’S – ANOTHER INDEPENDENT GROCER IS FORCED TO CLOSE STORES
Mrs. Green is the latest grocery store to fall victim to excessive growth and intense competition. They are closing 5 stores, or 50% of their locations.
GIS | YOU CAN TEACH AN OLD DOG NEW TRICKS
Totino’s pizza rolls are the best-selling frozen snack and appetizer in U.S. retail store, controlling more than 26% of the segment. GIS sold more than $530mm of pizza rolls in the LTM ending October 2, according to IRI.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
Food and organic stocks that we follow outperformed the XLP last week. The XLP was down 0.1% last week, the top performers on a relative basis from our list were Hain Celestial (HAIN) and Treehouse Foods (THS) posting increases of +12.4% and +10.2%, respectively. The worst performing companies on a relative basis on our list were Blue Buffalo (BUFF) and Pepsico (PEP), which were down -3.8% and -1.7%, respectively.
XLP VERSUS THE MARKET
Food and Organic Companies
Food Retail Companies
Food Retail stocks that we follow underperformed the SPX last week. The SPX was up 0.8% last week, the top performers on a relative basis from our list were Target (TGT) and Whole Foods (WFM) posting performance of +6.0% and +1.4%, respectively. The worst performing companies on a relative basis on our list were Natural Grocers (NGVC) and Walmart (WMT), posting performance of -10.4% and -4.6%, respectively.
Beverage & Alcohol Companies
Beverage & Alcohol stocks that we follow underperformed the SPX last week. The SPX was up 0.8% last week, the top performers on a relative basis from our list were FIZZ and SODA posting increases of +7.1% and +4.9%, respectively. The worst performing companies on a relative basis on our list were BUD and CCE, which were down -6.3% and -5.7%, respectively.
Please call or e-mail with any questions.
Howard Penney
Managing Director
Shayne Laidlaw
Analyst
