The government is us; we are the government, you and I.
-Theodore Roosevelt
TRUMP IS TRIUMPHANT: President-elect Donald Trump took a battering ram to Hillary Clinton’s blue firewall, reshaping the political landscape and defying pollsters, pundits and politicians alike. His coalition of working class white voters launched him into the presidency and gave him one- party control of Washington with the hope that his promise to change decades of policies they feel have gone against them. Trump’s victory speech was gracious, praising Hillary Clinton for a hard fought campaign, but faces the major task of healing the nation after the one of the most corrosive and divisive campaigns in history.
NOW FOR THE HARD PART: Now that President-elect Trump has a clean slate from the electorate it is time for him to start governing and getting Speaker Ryan and Majority Leader McConnell to agree to his agenda. Or the other way around. But beyond his campaign slogans and building a wall, there are scant details as to what he’ll want to accomplish as president. The policies that will likely top the list are tax reform, regulatory reform and an infrastructure spending bill to help get the economy growing to the 4-6% he promised. This is when he is going to get his introduction into Washington politics as a major spending bill is not likely to go over well with the fiscal conservatives in his own party, that is, unless it's "paid for." And, let’s just say we’re a bit bearish on any trade deals for the time being.
RYAN CAN RELAX: Now that the final numbers are in and Republicans maintain control of the House with 236 seats against the Democrats 191 (with a few yet-to-be-called). Some of the pressure to replace Speaker Paul Ryan may have been released with Trump’s stunning victory last night. Ryan reaffirmed his intent to finish his job as Speaker and should be able to fend off any potential challenger from the Freedom Caucus; and early signs that Trump will take a conciliatory approach bodes well for working with the man he has tussled with since securing the nomination earlier in the year.
ONLY THE BEGINNING: The Democrats had all the advantages going into this Senate election only defending 10 seats against the Republicans 24 - and they were left in Trump’s wake. Republicans surprised everyone and managed to maintain control of the upper chamber with 51 seats versus 47 for the Democrats (there are still two races to decide). Majority Leader Mitch McConnell may be a bit humbled for not supporting Trump throughout the election process choosing instead to focus on the Senate elections, but you can bet that he and his colleagues will do everything they can to position themselves for 2018 elections - which may get them to the magic 60 seats they need to a filibuster-proof majority.
UNAFFILIATED VOTERS: After a very divisive election following a very divisive few years, many people in the country are turning their backs on the political parties and are instead registering as unaffiliated voters. Young voters and immigrants who have been turned off by the hyper partisan politics have decided to forgo typical party politics and set out on their own. In CO alone unaffiliated voters now outnumber both Republicans and Democrats.
MACROCOSM 2016: Hedgeye invites you to MACROCOSM 2016: The Political Economy on WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2016 at the Waldorf Astoria in New York City.
MACROCOSM 2016: The Political Economy is Hedgeye’s second annual conference which will focus on how the new political environment will affect the markets.
Click here for the full invitation.
HEALTH CARE POLICY AND A TRUMP PRESIDENCY: EARLY (MORNING) THOUGHTS: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans writes that a Republican victory does not mean an easy path to repeal and replace of the ACA. You can read the full analysis here.
FIVE WAYS TRUMP PRESIDENCY WILL IMPACT ENERGY MARKETS: Our Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMOnigle writes about how the reinstating the Iran sanctions, carbon regulations amongst other topics. You can read the full analysis here.
