We hosted an institutional research call with influential election forecaster Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report last week.
The key takeaway?
Donald Trump can’t cover the ground necessary to win this late in the race. Republicans, however, will most likely hold the Senate. Cook thinks Trump needs a game-changing event. His path to 270 electoral votes relies on him winning all of the battleground states (i.e. FL, NC, OH, PA, NH and AZ) and turning a blue state red.
Cook argues that the GOP contender’s temperament is too much for the current pool of available swing voters. Still, most of these same voters feel strongly about not giving Clinton a blank check. So they are likely to vote with mixed party support (i.e. Clinton for President and Republican-leaning Senate). Meanwhile, the House of Representatives was never really in play, Cook says. Republicans are likely to lose 10-15 seats in the House.
additional notes from the Q&A portion with cook:
Hedgeye: What do you make of the impact of ground games, especially with Clinton’s cash advantage?
Cook: Earlier on, the election wasn’t close enough for a ground game to matter. That may change but we haven’t seen any evidence of that this year. Either way, Trump is not the beneficiary of this right now because he lacks an organized model and sophisticated voter identification/get out to vote operation
Hedgeye: According to the WSJ, even if Trump wins all Republican leaning states and all toss ups, he is still 9 electoral votes short. Which of PA, NC, NH, NV does Trump have the best chance of winning?
Cook: NH first and NV second. These two very clearly. You have a really hard time seeing him hit 270 without him having NC or PA, preferably both. However, without either one of them, there is just no path to victory.
Hedgeye: Can you address the effects of early voting this year?
Cook: I think it is fairly important. Those who did it historically were Republicans but now Democrats are learning how to do it. The principal thing it does is provides degrees of comfort because once someone votes, they’ve voted and new revelations cannot change that. Having a sophisticated organization here can make a difference. Hillary has one. Trump does not.
Hedgeye: Do you think there’ll be a challenge to Speaker Ryan’s seat once Congress returns in November?
Cook: I’m tempted to say yes, yet I’m tempted to say no because it is easier. If I said yes, you’d ask me who would take his spot and I’d have no idea. The vote is to vacate the chair and then there is a vote of who to put it in. So much of this depends on how close the presidential is. If Trump loses and the House is lost to Democrats by 4 or 5 seats or more, it is likely that Ryan gets a challenge.
