CHART OF THE DAY: An Ominous Signal For U.S. Small Businesses

CHART OF THE DAY: An Ominous Signal For U.S. Small Businesses - 10 19 16 EL loan


As the U.S. economy continues to slow, the nation's banks are turning off the liquidity spigot on small businesses. An ominous factoid: The last time loan volumes to small businesses turned this negative (on a year-over-year basis) it was December 2007, the exact month the U.S. economy tipped into recession. 


Here are the key Chart of The Day takeaways from the Thomson Reuters/PayNet small business data via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in this morning's Early Look:


  1. "Small Business Loan Volumes have gone decisively NEGATIVE on a y/y (year-over-year) basis"
  2. "The most recent print is down over -1.5% year-over-year and has been negative y/y in each of the last 3 months"  
  3. "The last time this index looked like this was DEC 2007"


If you run a small business look out. If you're an investor getting long equities into this economic slowdown, go look at returns from October and November of 2007. Those returns might scare some sense into you.


Netflix's Earnings: 6 Things You Need To Know

Netflix's Earnings: 6 Things You Need To Know - nflx

Netflix, the American streaming and entertainment company, reported earnings earlier this week, and the stock jumped as much as 20% in after hours trading as international subscriber growth sharply exceeded guidance. Hesham Shaaban, Hedgeye’s Internet and Media analyst summarized the good and bad of the company’s earnings. 

Cartoon of the Day: No Worries?

Cartoon of the Day: No Worries? - economy cartoon 10.18.2016


Stocks are up so no worries, right?

  • 46 million Americans on Food Stamps
  • College tuition costs rocketing higher
  • Over 94 million Americans outside the Labor Force; and
  • U.S. National Debt approaching $20 Trillion…


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Why America Hatched Donald Trump

Takeaway: Slow growth, distrust in institutions & lack of opportunity are a few reasons for Trump's remarkable rise to GOP presidential contender.

Why America Hatched Donald Trump - trump egg

Love him or hate him...


...Donald Trump's rise from ribald real estate developer and reality TV star to Republican presidential nominee is remarkable. He has clearly tapped into a growing and gnawing feeling of economic and political insecurity.


The table was arguably set:


  • 46 Million Americans on Food Stamps…
  • Over 94 million Americans outside the Labor Force…
  • Average college tuition costs up 180% in past 20 years…
  • U.S. national debt approaching $20 Trillion…
  • Etc Etc Etc


Anxious Americans are also concerned about the widening income gap (partly as result of Federal Reserve financial asset inflation). It doesn't help that the top 20% of U.S. households account for almost two-fifths of consumer spending with the top 10% possessing 84.5% of U.S. financial assets.


Why America Hatched Donald Trump - fed policy 10 18 16


Contributing to this insecurity are effects of slowing U.S. economic growth. 


  • Job growth slowingThe top was 2.3% in February 2015 and the September jobs report came in at 1.7%.
  • Aggregate hours worked slowingYear-over-year growth in aggregate hours worked continues to decline from the 2015 peak near 3.5% to today's 1.05%
  • Productivity slowing: Just hit a 40-year low.


As you can see in the chart below, this is a domino effect, with the cascade of negative data hurting U.S. growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) continues to decline from its peak of 3.3% in March 2015. It’s just 1.2% today.


Why America Hatched Donald Trump - CoD1


Meanwhile, there's a growing distrust of America's institutions.


Why America Hatched Donald Trump - trust in institutions


From politicians to the mainstream media, confidence is withering. Take a look at the Gallup polling data below. People were asked "how much confidence" do you have in each of the following institutions. Respondents answering "a great deal" or "quite a lot" has been slipping across the board for two decades.


Why America Hatched Donald Trump - trump post


As our Demography Sector Head Neil Howe points out, this is a decisive shift in the national mood. It will have a lasting impact:


"Trump’s candidacy thus becomes more plausible if one believes, as I do, that the prevailing social mood in America is rapidly changing. Donald Trump (and Bernie Sanders) are “pre-seasonal,” to use a term I sometimes give to public figures who anticipate the new direction. Hillary Clinton, by contrast, is “post-seasonal,” her outlook firmly rooted in the old regime while struggling gamely to adapt.”


The shift is real. And whether or not Trump is elected (we're not so quick to declare his campaign dead) doesn't necessarily matter.


The winds of the national mood are shifting. A lasting and profound realignment of the old order of things may be coming.

Poll Of The Day: Does Chipotle's E. coli Outbreak Make You Less Likely to Eat There?

Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

Poll Of The Day: Does Chipotle's E. coli Outbreak Make You Less Likely to Eat There? - chipotle 10 18



[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Stock Funds Under Duress (Brutal 4Q Outflows)

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Stock Funds Under Duress (Brutal 4Q Outflows) - dollar image

Every active stock fund category saw withdrawals last week, including a -$7.5 billion redemption from domestic equity. This is a complimentary research note originally published last week by our Financials team. 

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.