The man who is swimming against the stream knows the strength of it.
-Woodrow Wilson
MAN VS THE MACHINE: Donald Trump has taken to the airwaves again to blame everyone but himself for his flagging poll numbers and the negative stories that continue to roll in. He does have a point that the Billy Bush video could have been released at any time since he joined the field on June 16, 2015 and questioning why it’s seeing the light of day just weeks before the election. We question that as well - had the tape surfaced during the Republican primary, we likely wouldn’t be faced with this fiasco. Trump’s new scorched earth tactics are putting the blame on a global conspiracy consisting of the media (his biggest enabler), multinational corporations, the political establishment, and most importantly the Clinton Machine. Trump and a sliver of his supporters have been fueled by conspiracy theories over the years, but in this case it does seem like it’s him against the world.
TO SUPPORT OR NOT TO SUPPORT?: Over the past week almost a third of all elected Republicans have tried putting as much distance between themselves and Trump following the release of the tape. The big risk in doing this though is alienating Trump’s very loyal base - so some of them are beginning to feel this pressure and are re-reaffirming their support for Trump. Senators John Thune and Deb Fischer and Representative Scott Garrett have again declared their support for the Republican ticket - even though just a week ago Fischer and Thune suggested the Trump step aside, but the wrath of Trump’s supporters became too much for the Senators Hmmmm.
LOVING THE LEAKS: The trickle of releases from wikileaks have generally been harmless revealing information such as Clinton campaign manager John Podesta’s risotto recipe - but now the information is starting to get interesting. The latest release will likely cause some damage to her campaign (and provide Trump with more ammo for next Wednesday’s debate) as we are finally getting a glimpse into the Goldman Sachs speeches that Team Bernie so desperately tried to get their hands on during the primaries. Her gushing comments about Wall Street bankers as well as referring to Dodd-Frank as something that needed to pass for political reasons will not go over well with already cynical voters - especially in some of the swing states where anti-Wall Street sentiment runs higher than others. Only 40,000 more emails to go between today and election day.
BLOODIED BATTLEGROUND: PA is the new OH and Trump desperately needs a win here or his path to 270 becomes very, very, very narrow. With only 25 days to go, Clinton’s current nine-point lead will be extremely difficult to overcome and Trump doesn’t appear to be doing anything to improve his standing there. Even in battleground MI, with a high white working class population, Clinton is up 12 points. On the flip side, new polls show Clinton up only by a slim two points in FL - the state she needs to put her over 270 come election day.
RAINBOW AND BUTTERFLIES FROM THE FED: The U.S. economy is in its 87th month of economic expansion. The average U.S. economic cycle? 59 months before recession. In other words, we’re 28 months past that. Meanwhile, in its minutes yesterday the Fed wrote said jobs gains have been “solid” and economic growth “had picked up.” Actually, not true. Both year-over-year jobs growth and GDP continue to slow. Another headscratcher… NY Fed head Bill Dudley saying this week, “I think this economic expansion can last a good while longer” perhaps even growing at a “moderate rate over the next five to 10 years." Not clear what he’s thinking. That suggests the longest, most epic, expansion in American history. We wouldn't bet on it. Economic reality doesn’t cease to exist, just because the Fed says so.
SUPREME COURT LIKELY CUTS APPLE PATENT DAMAGES AWARD V. SAMSUNG: Our Senior Telecom and Media Policy Analyst Paul Glenchur gives an in depth analysis of the SCOTUS case between Samsung and Apple claiming that this likely raises the bar for design patent damages on finished products. You can read the full analysis here.
NOTE: We're traveling next week and will resurface around the day of the last presidential debate. Unless something else breaks. Don't hesitate to email us with questions.
