Three key developments will be discussed which are important for investors to understand. One is a headwind set to grow stronger over the course of 2017. The other two are risks that just recently emerged which bear close monitoring.
KEY DISCUSSION POINTS
- High-End Hangover: Luxury & High End real estate is struggling for a multitude of reasons. The supply of high end homes has been increasing steadily as demand has been waning, while pricing is beginning to weaken. This trend looks set to continue and likely worsen.
- Headfake or Harbinger #1: Collapse in Household Formation: July/August of 2016 saw the sharpest slowdown in household formation since 2011 and is similar in scale to what was observed back in December, 1999 and January, 2008.
- Headfake or Harbinger #2: Decline in Birth Rates: Our Healthcare Team's proprietary Hedgeye Maternity Tracker is showing a significant decline in maternity rates YTD across the US. The stork's arrival is one of the primary precipitants of change for living arrangements.
- Zika Toll: Zika has instilled fear across the country. What impact could the spillover of this fear have on birth trends, household formation and the U.S. housing market? We'll attempt to quantify the risk.
- Gotham: NYC is feeling the effects of building pressures across the financial sector landscape. This quarter, we'll take a look at the underlying trends in the largest US market.
- Uncertainty: Rates, Elections, Global Macro Risks and their probable impacts on the US Housing market.
Attendance is limited. Please note if you are not a current subscriber to our Housing research there will be a fee associated with this research call and related material. Ping firstname.lastname@example.org for more information.