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Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor in his Capital Brief to institutional clients this morning. For more info on our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.

Taylor: Expect a Bareknuckled Donald Trump Next Debate - JT   Potomac banner 2

ROUND TWO REVIVAL?

While the first debate is generally viewed as the most important, the next are very likely to be where the real war will be fought...

EXPECT SOME BLOOD TO BE DRAWN.

Though the candidates did inflict some wounds, round one was fairly tame by 2016 standards. Hillary Clinton went low on Donald Trump by bringing forward his bullying of a former Miss Universe winner, but Trump showed surprising restraint, and held back, not landing punches on Clinton on topics such as Benghazi, the Clinton Foundation, emails and...her husband.

With just under two weeks until the second matchup, though, we expect Trump to take off the gloves, ensuring a real bout when the two meet again October 9th.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE EXAM

With 40 days until Election Day, we’re updating our Electoral College chart, and moving CO and IA into “leaning” categories. In the last month, the polls have tightened significantly and are testing Clinton’s limitations, but she is still poised to retain an edge in the Electoral College according to Cook Political Report - who currently predicts Clinton will obtain a majority, winning the election by just under 80 electoral votes.

Click to enlarge.

Taylor: Expect a Bareknuckled Donald Trump Next Debate - electoral map