Aronstein: Here’s How Every Bull Market Always Ends

Industry veteran and portfolio manager Michael Aronstein, CIO of Marketfield Asset Management, has made a career out of making the big, contrarian macro calls that no one else saw coming. In this brief excerpt from a longer “Real Conversations” interview, Aronstein sat down with private investor Buddy Carter and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to discuss why the markets and economy look increasingly vulnerable.


“Bull markets don’t end because suddenly people who have made a lot of money decide you know what I’ve made too much I’ve got to sell this,” Aronstein says in the interview. “All bull markets end with a surge in supply.” Essentially, investors crowd into a popular trade that then suddenly goes bust due to some unforeseen shock.


In the brief clip below, Aronstein suggests how he thinks this bull market ends.


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To watch this edition of “Real Conversations” in its entirety check out the video below.

The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 26th of September through the 30th of September is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.



The Week Ahead - 09.23.16 Week Ahead

How Trump & Clinton Can Win Monday’s ‘Super Bowl’ Debate

In this video edition of the Capital Brief, Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor discuss Monday’s Presidential Debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

Cartoon of the Day: NIRP

Cartoon of the Day: NIRP - Kuroda negative penny 09.23.2016


Japan is the world's monetary policy playground. 

3 Things Could Trigger Massive Market Volatility

In this excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why the decline in stock market volatility this week will prove short-lived. He discusses three catalysts that could cause a massive spike in the VIX volatility index.


Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 


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Algiers Freeze Plan On The Rocks

Takeaway: Saudi Arabia wanting Iran to freeze production is nothing new. Iran saying no to freeze also not new.

Last weekend OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo announced that there would be only consultations, but no freeze decision at the upcoming Algeria meeting. On Thursday, it was revealed that mid-level officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran were holding talks in Vienna in preparation for Algiers, leading to speculation about an impending freeze deal. But on Friday “sources” speaking for Iran and Saudi Arabia both said no deal.


In our notes on the topic, we have stressed two fundamental positions that have not changed: Saudi Arabia wants Iran to freeze production & Iran says it cannot freeze so soon after nuclear sanctions were lifted. Thus it’s not hard to see why the push for a September freeze is now on ice.

Algiers Freeze Plan On The Rocks - Iran.Saudi.oil cartoon 01.22.2016

Reuters also reported late Thursday that Saudi Arabia had offered to share in a combined one million barrels a day production cut with Kuwait, UAE and Qatar in exchange for an Iran freeze. We continue to think a change in production policy now is too soon for the Saudi market share strategy as it would boost US production. So if the Reuters report is accurate, we view it more as a public relations move - the Saudi’s knew Iran could not agree and now Iran looks like the uncooperative party within OPEC. Cue the Russians to say asking Iran to freeze is unfair.


As a result, we think a September production freeze is off the table. To reset expectations, Secretary General Barkindo might want to repeat his announcement from last weekend that Algiers will be about consultations not decisions. 


*This is an excerpt from a longer note for institutional subscribers. For more information email

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