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Pandora: 2 Reasons Why We’re Now Bullish (But Still Dislike The Company)

Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shabaan recommended shorting Pandora Media (P) from December 2014 until earlier this year. Recently, he’s flipped to the long side. For now. Shabaan explains why in this excerpt from The Macro Show yesterday.


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Takeaway: Please join us tomorrow, Wednesday, 9/21 at 11:00am for our TGT Best Idea Short Call.

Please join us tomorrow, Wednesday, September 21st at 11:00 AM ET for a call reviewing our Black Book on Best Idea Short, Target (TGT).

CLICK HERE to watch this presentation live.



There are a lot of reasons why we don’t like Target. It’s not because of any one factor, as most of those – at least in isolation – are known. But what is underappreciated (in a very big way) is the cumulative effect of a decade of mediocre/reckless decision making that has left the company in a difficult position – a position without the leverage to drive the business, the P&L, and cash flow going forward without eroding returns. We think this is probably in numbers for the back half of this year. But this company will have to back off of guidance and expectations, and ultimately take necessary steps (higher investment) to maintain competitive position, or else see continued top line pressure and earnings misses. We’ll walk through how we think it all plays out from here tomorrow.


Simply put, Target has historically been largely a macro call, as has Wal-Mart. But we increasingly think it’s clear that this is no longer the case. We think what is missing in investors’ minds on this one is the duration that this sub-par performance will rear its true form. Our estimates are 15% below consensus next year, and 30% by 2019. 


One thing we balance with all of this is that the biggest thing this name has in its favor is that after all, it is Target. Will it be here in 10 years? Yes, it will. Will Kohl’s? Probably not. Bed Bath & Beyond? Not sure. Best Buy? Probably not. Ultimately this company will probably survive without egregious mismanagement. But we don’t like companies that simply survive – especially without respecting the precarious position they’re in today – and Target is definitely in one from where we sit. The company will likely ultimately do the right thing, we just think it will be costly before it ensures survival.


Call Details

Toll Free:


UK: 0

Confirmation Number: 13645612

Materials/Video: CLICK HERE for event details (includes video link, materials link and dial-in details)

So Much For The Ackman Pop ... Next Stop For Chipotle? $250

Takeaway: The Chipotle shareholder carnage continues as investors fade disclosure of Bill Ackman's 9.9% stake.

So Much For The Ackman Pop ... Next Stop For Chipotle? $250 - chipotle ackman 

Hours after Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney hosted his Chipotle (CMG) short call on September 6th, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital disclosed a 9.9% stake in Chipotle. The stock jumped on the news. 


But then, as it often does, reality set in... Chipotle's shares are down -9% from the peak of the Ackman hype.


Just as Penney predicted hours after the news...


And to be clear, he's reiterating the call today.


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For a good overview of Penney's short call on the company see the CNN Money story, "Why Chipotle could crash another 50%." To read Penney and analyst Shayne Laidlaw's response to Ackman's Chipotle stake after it was disclosed read, "Pershing Has Stepped In Front of a Ticking Time Bomb."


Finally, below is short video in which Penney responds to an institutional client's question about the "smoking gun" that will ultimately take down Chipotle.



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Cartoon of the Day: Hawkish or Dovish?

Cartoon of the Day: Hawkish or Dovish? - Fed hawkish dovish cartoon 09.20.2016

Incessant Fed flip-flopping from hawkish to dovish (6x in 8 months!?) is simply insane. What will they do at Wednesday's FOMC meeting? Tell us what you think by casting your vote in our Poll of the Day here.


Best Idea Long: Why Expedia Holds All The Cards

Best Idea Long: Why Expedia Holds All The Cards - HETV macroshow thumb expedia 9.20.2016

In this excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban lays out our Best Idea Long call on Expedia and why the company’s HomeAway acquisition is a “considerable opportunity” relative to Wall Street’s expectations.


Hedgeye Potomac is hosting a call with Charlie Cook - one of the nation’s leading authorities on American politics and U.S. elections, and founder of the Cook Political Report.


Cook will share his outlook on the presidential race, discuss the state of play for House and Senate elections, and give a preview of the upcoming presidential debates later this month.


The call will take place TODAY, September 20th at 2:00 PM EST with prepared remarks from Cook followed by Q&A.




Charlie Cook is the Editor and Publisher of the Cook Political Report and a political analyst for National Journal magazine, where he writes a twice weekly column. Charlie is considered one of the nation’s leading authorities on American politics and U.S. elections. In 2010, Charlie was a co-recipient of the American Political Science Association's prestigious Carey McWilliams award to honor "a major journalistic contribution to our understanding of politics." In the spring semester of 2013, Charlie served as a Resident Fellow at the Institute of Politics at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.


Charlie founded the Cook Political Report in 1984 and became a columnist for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill, in 1986. In 1998 he moved his column to National Journal. Charlie has served as a political analyst or election night analyst for CBS, CNN and NBC News and has been a frequent political analyst for all three major broadcast news networks and has appeared on Meet the Press and This Week.


The New York Times has called Charlie “one of the best political handicappers in the nation" and has said the Cook Political Report is "a newsletter which both parties regard as authoritative." The late David Broder wrote in the Washington Post that Charlie was "perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races," while CBS News' Bob Schieffer called the Cook Political Report, "the bible of the political community."




Toll Free:


UK: 0

Confirmation Number: 13645449

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