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Dear Janet, Are You Really "Data Dependent"?

Takeaway: You may want to stop reading now if you're a “data dependent” hawk.

Dear Janet, Are You Really "Data Dependent"? - Yellen data dependent cartoon 11.18.2015

 

Editor's Note: The excerpt below is from a larger institutional note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

ISM Services prints worst since 2010. 

 

...Drops -4 pts sequentially with Business Activity and New Orders dropping a remarkable -7.5 pts and -8.9 pts, respectively.  Employment down -0.7 and barely holding positive at 50.7 as well.

 

From potential overheating to flirting with contraction in a single month with New Orders posting its largest sequential decline in 104 months. To review, if you broadly divide the economy into Services & Goods and do the data dependence math for August:

 

  1. GOODS = Contraction
  2. SERVICES = worst print since 2010  

 

If you’re more into data point breadth, here’s a list that “data dependent” hawks should obfuscate or ignore:

 

  1. Chicago PMI = Worse
  2. ISM Services = Worse
  3. ISM manufacturing = Worse
  4. Markit Manufacturing PMI = Worse
  5. Bloomberg Consumer Confidence = Worse
  6. NFP = Worse
  7. Auto Sales = Worse
  8. Labor Market Conditions = Worse

Poll of the Day: Are Negative Interest Rates Coming to America?

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

 

Poll of the Day: Are Negative Interest Rates Coming to America? - z silly

 

 

 


PREMIUM INSIGHT

18 (Excellent) Book Recommendations From Hedgeye

18 (Excellent) Book Recommendations From Hedgeye - books

We receive a lot of book recommendation requests from our subscribers. Here's a list of some of the more thoughtful ones we've read recently here at Hedgeye (along with the person making the recommendation).


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.32%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.48%

CHART OF THE DAY: Those Fickle Fed Fund Futures

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more. 

 

...Yellen’s Fed is much shorter-term than that. If she does what the market is telling her to do right now (Fed Fund Futures dropped to 32% on a SEP hike), this will be her 6th pivot (hawkish-dovish-hawkish-dovish-hawkish-dovish), in 9 months.

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Those Fickle Fed Fund Futures  - cod 09.06.16 chart


PREMIUM INSIGHT

‘Macro Mentoring’ With Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough

‘Macro Mentoring’ With Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough - Slide2

What strategies should investors employ to build their wealth without drawdowns? Why are Wall Street banks getting crushed by Fed policy? How do savvy investors break down the complexities of  the U.S. economy? In this special HedgeyeTV video, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough puts pen to paper and provides the answers to these important questions and many more. 


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 5th of September through the 9th of September is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The Week Ahead - 09.02.16 Week Ahead


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what smart investors watch to win

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