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Takeaway: You may want to stop reading now if you're a “data dependent” hawk.

Dear Janet, Are You Really "Data Dependent"? - Yellen data dependent cartoon 11.18.2015

Editor's Note: The excerpt below is from a larger institutional note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

ISM Services prints worst since 2010. 

...Drops -4 pts sequentially with Business Activity and New Orders dropping a remarkable -7.5 pts and -8.9 pts, respectively.  Employment down -0.7 and barely holding positive at 50.7 as well.

From potential overheating to flirting with contraction in a single month with New Orders posting its largest sequential decline in 104 months. To review, if you broadly divide the economy into Services & Goods and do the data dependence math for August:

  1. GOODS = Contraction
  2. SERVICES = worst print since 2010  

If you’re more into data point breadth, here’s a list that “data dependent” hawks should obfuscate or ignore:

  1. Chicago PMI = Worse
  2. ISM Services = Worse
  3. ISM manufacturing = Worse
  4. Markit Manufacturing PMI = Worse
  5. Bloomberg Consumer Confidence = Worse
  6. NFP = Worse
  7. Auto Sales = Worse
  8. Labor Market Conditions = Worse