What's Happened To Bernanke's Commodity Bubble? DEFLATION...

Takeaway: A Fed rate hike could precipitate the next leg down in deflation's dominos.

A long-term bear market in one of Bernanke’s Down Dollar asset bubbles remains firmly intact. After failing the “breakout” for the technicians > 200 in June, the CRB Index is down -7% from that lowerlong-term high; it’s going to get decimated by Deflation’s Dominoes if the Fed tightens.



Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more. 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products




Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - equity markets


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - sector performance


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - volume


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - rates and spreads


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - currencies


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - commodities

Poll of the Day: If You Could SHORT Only One Position Below, Which Would It Be?

Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

Attention Students...

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CHART OF THE DAY: Great Job, Janet

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more. 


"... That’s right. One super #LateCycle number (US jobs report) will determine the direction of the economy, when they raise rates, and what they do to justify it amidst the rest of leading indicator data. It will determine our market life, while we’re still pitching.


Great job, Janet."


CHART OF THE DAY: Great Job, Janet - 08.31.16 EL Chart

Cartoon of the Day: Pregnant Pause

Cartoon of the Day: Pregnant Pause - Jobs cartoon 08.30.3016


Will Friday's Jobs Report give the Fed the green light for 2016 interest rate hikes? No matter what the headline number is the year-over-year rate of change in jobs growth peaked in February 2015 and continues its past peak slide.

A Letter to Newborn "Inflation Hawks"

Editor's Note: The insight below accompanied a new Real-Time Alert signal sent to subscribers yesterday.


To the newborn "inflation hawks" (the old ones from 2012 died),


So... you want to go Ex-GDP and go for another hike because “inflation is reaching the target” do you? Cool. In addition to commodity-linked inflation proxies getting deflated last week, the 5yr US Treasury Break-Even rate dropped 2 basis points on the week to 1.34%.


In other words, with:


A)     GDP tracking towards 1.1% in Q3 (we’ll get that print right before the election)

B)     Housing and Consumer Confidence rolling off their #LateCycle peaks

C)     Inflation pressures deflating from their Down Dollar YTD highs

D)     Yield Spread (UST 10yr minus 2yr) at its YTD low (down 5bps last week)

E)      SP500 dead flat now vs. 1 month ago today


The Fed has “clearly seen improvements for the last 2 months?” Or were those the politically prepared remarks pre the SP500 (you-ge indicator!) going down for 5 of the last 6 trading days and US Equity Volatility (VIX) ramping +20.4% in a week?


The only thing that’s crystal clear to me at this point is that


A) the US GDP growth cycle peaked in mid-2015

B) inflation has had what the Fed should call “transitory” reflation

C) the labor cycle continues to slow from its 2015 rate of change cycle peak.


A Letter to Newborn "Inflation Hawks" - late cycle cartoon 10.08.2015


Short the Financials vs. your Long-term Bond core longs.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.