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What's Happened To Bernanke's Commodity Bubble? DEFLATION...

Takeaway: A Fed rate hike could precipitate the next leg down in deflation's dominos.

A long-term bear market in one of Bernanke’s Down Dollar asset bubbles remains firmly intact. After failing the “breakout” for the technicians > 200 in June, the CRB Index is down -7% from that lowerlong-term high; it’s going to get decimated by Deflation’s Dominoes if the Fed tightens.

 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more. 


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - equity markets

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - sector performance

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - volume

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - rates and spreads

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - currencies

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - commodities


August 31, 2016

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  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.62 1.50 1.57
SPX
S&P 500
2,167 2,190 2,176
RUT
Russell 2000
1,227 1,250 1,246
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,180 5,262 5,222
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore
35.03 37.89 37.52
RMZ
MSCI US REIT
1,210 1,239 1,225
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,355 16,898 16,725
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,456 10,691 10,657
VIX
Volatility Index
11.04 14.47 13.12
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
93.91 96.25 96.04
EURUSD
Euro
1.11 1.13 1.11
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
99.01 103.63 103.02
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
44.29 49.08 46.35
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.55 2.99 2.83
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,309 1,360 1,316
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.03 2.12 2.07
AAPL
Apple Inc.
105.43 110.01 106.00
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
752 776 767
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
64.80 67.70 67.50
INTC
Intel Corp.
34.21 35.95 35.70
PANW
Palo Alto Networks
126 145 143
AGU
Agrium Inc.
90.07 96.05 95.76

Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

Poll of the Day: If You Could SHORT Only One Position Below, Which Would It Be?

Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.


EVENT | Cummins Inc (CMI) BlackBook

Monday, September 12th at 1:00PM ET

Watch a replay below.

CLICK HERE to access the audio-only replay.

 

Contact sales@hedgeye.com to access to associated slides.


US stocks down for 6 of the last 8 days on Fed threatening to hike into a slow-down…

Client Talking Points

Yen

Day 2 of US signaling immediate-term TRADE overbought vs. both Euros and Yens; Japanese Equities love the smell of fresh burning Yen; Nikkei closes up big for the 2nd day in 3, +1%, but remains bearish TREND @Hedgeye.

Commodities

Long-term bear market in one of Bernanke’s Down Dollar asset bubbles remains firmly intact; after failing the “breakout” for the technicians > 200 in June, the CRB Index is down -7% from that lower-long-term high; it’s going to get decimated by Deflation’s Dominoes if the Fed tightens.

US 10YR

Incredible to watch, really – despite all the selling in anything equity that looks like a bond, the UST 10YR has oscillated between 1.46-1.62% for the last 3 weeks; ALL of Fed policy comes down to 1 number though (nice job making this a lottery ticket, Janet) with the jobs report (which is subject to huge revisions) on Friday.

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/30/16 45% 6% 8% 15% 20% 6%
8/31/16 43% 7% 8% 16% 20% 6%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/30/16 45% 18% 24% 45% 61% 18%
8/31/16 43% 21% 24% 48% 61% 18%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GLD

On the other side of the USD expectation, Gold (GLD) lost -1.5% w/w. Again we still like UUP and GLD as a basket against other centrally-planned currency regimes elsewhere.

TLT

Long Bonds (TLT), which has been on Investing Ideas since August 4th, 2014, finished the week -0.25%. We continue to believe that growth is the main catalyst for the curve amidst all the central planning noise. Slower growth gets discounted in a flatter curve so even if rates are hiked into a late cycle slow-down, the yield curve pancakes (the long-end of the yield curve fall and the short-end goes up). 

UUP

Strength in the U.S. dollar, with renewed rate hike expectations back in the mix over the last few weeks, gave a good boost to U.S. Dollar (UUP) which finished +1.1% on the week. The bid-yield of December Federal funds futures has ticked 10 bps higher in August to 0.55% to close out the week.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

.@JoeMcMonigle lifted the veil on #OPEC #oil "freeze". Here's what he told @KeithMcCullough app.hedgeye.com/insights/53321… pic.twitter.com/LXLSyX1cth

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Dreaming, after all, is a form of planning”.

–Gloria Steinem 

STAT OF THE DAY

Tim Tebow threw for 9285 yards and 88 touchdowns while at Florida.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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