prev

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - style factor 8 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - sector performance 8 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - volume 8 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - rates and spreads 8 3


August 3, 2016

Want more from Daily Trading Ranges? CLICK HERE to submit up to 4 tickers you'd like to see on the list. 

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.60 1.45 1.55
SPX
S&P 500
2,142 2,177 2,157
RUT
Russell 2000
1,190 1,220 1,199
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,060 5,197 5,137
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,003 16,576 16,391
DAX
German DAX Composite
9,955 10,350 10,144
VIX
Volatility Index
11.86 15.38 13.37
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
94.75 96.50 94.99
EURUSD
Euro
1.09 1.12 1.11
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
100.19 104.31 100.90
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
38.78 42.24 39.51
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.55 2.92 2.73
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,330 1,377 1,372
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.16 2.28 2.20
AAPL
Apple Inc.
99.62 108.04 104.48
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
725 770 760
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
84.01 95.08 93.56
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
62.17 64.38 63.65
FB
Facebook Inc.
119.75 125.81 123.09
F
Ford Motor Company
11.70 12.99 11.94


Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


So far 367 of 500 S&P companies have reported an aggregate y/y non-GAAP EPS decline of -4.0%...

Client Talking Points

Japan

The central-market-planning + Big Fiscal Helicopter #BeliefSystem (i.e. hope) took another blow overnight with the Nikkei down another -1.9% = down -3.5% since the 28.1T “stimulus” was approved; Nikkei -23.1% from 2015s high.

Oil

Every time I refresh my immediate-term risk range model (price/volume/volatility) I get a lower-high and a lower-low; currently that risk range for WTI = $38.71-42.24 with bearish TREND overhead at $47.55; how does this problem go away?

VIX

Buying front-month equity volatility has been a layup whenever you’ve had the chance < 12 going all the way back to the summer of 2014 when cross-asset-volatility put in an all-time low; it’s not different this time.

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/2/16 60% 3% 5% 6% 13% 13%
8/3/16 57% 5% 6% 6% 13% 13%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/2/16 60% 9% 15% 18% 39% 39%
8/3/16 57% 15% 18% 18% 39% 39%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GLD

To summarize our active ideas, long Gold (GLD) and long U.S. Dollar position (via PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), netted out Friday, with gold catching a bid against a USD that got crushed on the report. (Part of the reason we added UUP to Investing Ideas was the expectation of a GDP print that may have sent a hawkish message to the market.) Think of Gold and the USD as a position against a basket of other currencies.

TLT

The good news for #GrowthSlowing bulls is that the Treasury rate curve will likely get pushed lower over the coming days as investors take stock of this week’s ugly data. That's good for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) and Long Bonds (TLT).

UUP

See update on GLD.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Another Week Of Record Outflows app.hedgeye.com/insights/52813… cc @KeithMcCullough pic.twitter.com/fGkI8QYceP

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

” Losers quit when they’re tired. Winners quit when they’ve won.” 

–Unknown

STAT OF THE DAY

Greg Maddux had 109 complete games over his 23 year career.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.45%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.37%

What's Next For Oil (As The Chart Chasing Pros Freak Out)

Takeaway: Oil & Energy assets are a big part of the asset inflation the Fed needed off the lows. My risk ranges signal lower-highs and lower-lows.

Every time I refresh my immediate-term risk range model (price/volume/volatility) I get a lower-high and a lower-low; currently that risk range for WTI = $38.71-42.24 with bearish TREND overhead at $47.55; how does this problem go away?

 

  

What's Next For Oil (As The Chart Chasing Pros Freak Out) - Oil cartoon 12.08.2015

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote for subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


CHART OF THE DAY: The Mother Of All Tops Is In... Don't Chase The Sucker's Rally

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day (slide 13 in our current Q3 Macro Themes deck), US domestic corporate profits (and margins) put in the mother of all tops in the 2nd half of 2014. And at $60 Oil (never mind $39), we’re not going back there.

 

Alas, after any long-term #bubble chart like this peaks and rolls, everyone in the Old Wall research department wants to call it “bottoming” (having never called it topping of course). That’s typically the last sucker’s rally."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: The Mother Of All Tops Is In... Don't Chase The Sucker's Rally - 08.03.16 EL Chart


Peace And Quiet?

“Never for the sake of peace and quiet, deny your own experience or convictions.”

-Dag Hammarskjold

 

Don’t worry. I’m not going to go all Swedish on you this morning. That said, Hammarskjold has some great leadership quotes.

 

The main reason why I’m thinking about peace and quiet this morning is that Darius Dale and I spent all of yesterday in NYC meeting with Institutional Investors. And we couldn’t believe how quiet the streets of New York were.

 

I’m not talking side streets. I mean the main streets like Park and Madison where there’s always a hustle and bustle of business suits. Not yesterday. Is everyone on vaca? It’s Earnings Season. I doubt it. It was weird.

 

Peace And Quiet? - earnings cartoon 01.27.2015

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

What wasn’t weird was seeing volume accelerate on yesterday’s US stock market down move. Yes, amidst the performance chase, down days have been infrequent as of late. But the pattern of this liquidity trap remains consistent:

 

A) Equity Market UP days have generally had decelerating volume

B) Equity Market DOWN days have generally had accelerating volume

 

We map Total US Equity Volume (including dark pool), across multiple durations, daily. As opposed to just staring at the surface area of the market (i.e. a moving avg of price), I like to measure it in 3D (price, volume, and volatility).

 

In stark contrast to the down -20-27% volume days we’d been seeing during the SP500’s relentless march to multiple-all-time-closing-highs in July, yesterday’s volume (on SP500 -0.64%) was +12% and -7% vs. its 1-month and 1-year averages, respectively.

 

On the intraday lows (where I sent out a buy/cover signal on SPY and IWM in Real-Time Alerts), front-month US Equity volatility was +12% on the day. By the close, VIX was +8%.

 

What does it all mean?

 

In a vacuum, not much away from the obvious. The majority of US equity only Portfolio Managers have not been able to beat beta (SPX +5.5% YTD) this year, so there’s been a reluctantly long community of bears who are quick to sell when the selling starts.

 

As for how crazy the quietness of it all is. It’s been a disservice to clients to be chasing charts (after they’ve moved) every time US Equity Volatility (VIX) has fallen below 12, going all the way back to the summer of 2014.

 

Hedgeye veterans will recall that one of our Top 3 Macro Themes in Q3 of 2014 was called #VolatilityAsymmetry. That was not only the all-time high in US corporate profitability, but the all-time low in cross asset class volatility.

 

Never, ever, forget where we came from.

 

I spend a lot of time pounding this asymmetry of profits point into both current and prospective clients, mainly because I think contextualizing the risk of the #ProfitCycle, across durations, is critical to risk managing where asset prices go next.

 

As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day (slide 13 in our current Q3 Macro Themes deck), US domestic corporate profits (and margins) put in the mother of all tops in the 2nd half of 2014. And at $60 Oil (never mind $39), we’re not going back there.

 

Alas, after any long-term #bubble chart like this peaks and rolls, everyone in the Old Wall research department wants to call it “bottoming” (having never called it topping of course). That’s typically the last sucker’s rally.

 

The bounce in a bubble to a lower-high, that is…

 

But, but, KM… CNBC keeps saying “Earnings Beat.” Yep. Got that. So easy a person who has never modeled a company can do it. “They beat, bro!” Oh yes, journo-pro… thundering statesman of headline teleprompter, you go!

 

For Q2 Earnings Season to-date:

 

  1. 367 of 500 S&P500 companies have reported an aggregate y/y non-GAAP EPS decline of -4.0%
  2. 27 of the 367 companies that have reported are “Energy” companies – and no you can’t “ex-that-out”
  3. 79 of the 367 companies are called Financials, and their aggregate y/y EPS decline is -5.4%

 

I gave you my “Low Energy” view yesterday and I’m quite happy to not have to make excuses on why “everyone’s a buyer at $36” when mostly everyone who chased anything energy in June is already long it at $50.

 

I remain quite concerned about the Financials and increasingly concerned about the only “Earnings Growth” story that was up double-digit in Q2, which is Consumer Discretionary (46 companies have reported an aggregate y/y EPS gain of +16.7%).

 

As you all know, Q2 is over. We’re in Q3. And especially for American Consumer Discretionary companies, Q3 is what we call the “toughest 2-year comp” (comparative base effect period) in 9 years. That’s why we’re already seeing both Luxury and Autos implode.

 

Never, for the sake of peace and quiet, ignore #bubbles and/or deny yourself the learnings of #TheCycle.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 1.45-1.60%

SPX 2142-2177
RUT 1190-1220

VIX 11.86-15.38
USD 94.75-96.50
Oil (WTI) 39.78-42.24

Gold 1

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Peace And Quiet? - 08.03.16 EL Chart


real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

next