CLIENT TALKING POINTS
Japan
The central-market-planning + Big Fiscal Helicopter #BeliefSystem (i.e. hope) took another blow overnight with the Nikkei down another -1.9% = down -3.5% since the 28.1T “stimulus” was approved; Nikkei -23.1% from 2015s high.
Oil
Every time I refresh my immediate-term risk range model (price/volume/volatility) I get a lower-high and a lower-low; currently that risk range for WTI = $38.71-42.24 with bearish TREND overhead at $47.55; how does this problem go away?
VIX
Buying front-month equity volatility has been a layup whenever you’ve had the chance < 12 going all the way back to the summer of 2014 when cross-asset-volatility put in an all-time low; it’s not different this time.
TOP LONG IDEAS
GLD
To summarize our active ideas, long Gold (GLD) and long U.S. Dollar position (via PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), netted out Friday, with gold catching a bid against a USD that got crushed on the report. (Part of the reason we added UUP to Investing Ideas was the expectation of a GDP print that may have sent a hawkish message to the market.) Think of Gold and the USD as a position against a basket of other currencies.
TLT
The good news for #GrowthSlowing bulls is that the Treasury rate curve will likely get pushed lower over the coming days as investors take stock of this week’s ugly data. That's good for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) and Long Bonds (TLT).
UUP
See update on GLD.
Asset Allocation
CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8/2/16 | 60% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 13% | 13% |
8/3/16 | 57% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 13% |
Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure
CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8/2/16 | 60% | 9% | 15% | 18% | 39% | 39% |
8/3/16 | 57% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 39% | 39% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Another Week Of Record Outflows app.hedgeye.com/insights/52813… cc @KeithMcCullough pic.twitter.com/fGkI8QYceP
@Hedgeye
QUOTE OF THE DAY
” Losers quit when they’re tired. Winners quit when they’ve won.”
–Unknown
STAT OF THE DAY
Greg Maddux had 109 complete games over his 23 year career.