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What's Next For Oil (As The Chart Chasing Pros Freak Out)

Takeaway: Oil & Energy assets are a big part of the asset inflation the Fed needed off the lows. My risk ranges signal lower-highs and lower-lows.

Every time I refresh my immediate-term risk range model (price/volume/volatility) I get a lower-high and a lower-low; currently that risk range for WTI = $38.71-42.24 with bearish TREND overhead at $47.55; how does this problem go away?

 

  

What's Next For Oil (As The Chart Chasing Pros Freak Out) - Oil cartoon 12.08.2015

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote for subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


CHART OF THE DAY: The Mother Of All Tops Is In... Don't Chase The Sucker's Rally

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day (slide 13 in our current Q3 Macro Themes deck), US domestic corporate profits (and margins) put in the mother of all tops in the 2nd half of 2014. And at $60 Oil (never mind $39), we’re not going back there.

 

Alas, after any long-term #bubble chart like this peaks and rolls, everyone in the Old Wall research department wants to call it “bottoming” (having never called it topping of course). That’s typically the last sucker’s rally."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: The Mother Of All Tops Is In... Don't Chase The Sucker's Rally - 08.03.16 EL Chart


[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Happy Hour?

[From The Vault] Cartoon of the Day: Happy Hour? - Oil cartoon 11.20.2015

 

Our inimitable, in-house cartoonist Bob Rich is on a much-deserved summer vacation. While he kicks back and relaxes, we're going into the Hedgeye Vault and highlighting some of his best work. With oil down 28% from its recent high, we bring you another audience favorite.

 

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Europe's Carnage Continues: Stress Tests Reveal No Faith In The Continent's Big Banks

Takeaway: The Euro Stoxx Bank sub-index is down -7.5% so far this week, as stress tests revealed big bank weakness.

Europe's Carnage Continues: Stress Tests Reveal No Faith In The Continent's Big Banks - Europe three bears cartoon 07.21.2016 

 

It was an ugly day for European stocks. Eurozone equity markets were down between -0.8% and -2.8% today as investors continued the mass exodus out of the continent's struggling banks.

 

Europe's Carnage Continues: Stress Tests Reveal No Faith In The Continent's Big Banks - european equities 8 2

 

Check out the collection of laggers in the Euro Stoxx 600 below. Leading the losers were a handful of Italian bank stocks. Topping the list was Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.Italy), down nearly -13% today, after failing European stress tests and announcing a supposed "definitive solution" to solve its legacy of bad loans. Note: The bank has lost €4.2 billion in market capitalization since Q2 2015 or 83% of its value.

 

Europe's Carnage Continues: Stress Tests Reveal No Faith In The Continent's Big Banks - europe leaders lagg 8 2

 

The Euro Stoxx Bank sub-index is down -7.5% so far this week.

 

Europe's Carnage Continues: Stress Tests Reveal No Faith In The Continent's Big Banks - european bank stocks

 

As the European carnage continues, we reiterate our call ... #EuropeImploding.


Asinine Fed Doublespeak (You Just Can't Make This Stuff Up)

Takeaway: Fed heads are putting the most wish-washy, flip flopping politicians to shame.

Asinine Fed Doublespeak (You Just Can't Make This Stuff Up) - Hawk dove cartoon 06.06.2016

Confusion.

 

That's probably the best way to sum up market uncertainty surrounding future Fed rate hikes. Regional Fed presidents continue talking out of both sides of their mouth, under the guise of "data dependence." Investors? They're left scratching their heads.

 

After last Friday's GDP implosion (1.2% for 2Q16 ... half what Wall Street economists predicted), market implied rate hike probabilities for September and November FOMC meetings dipped below 20%. Meanwhile, Fed governors are out there chomping at the bit to get their names in print ... trying to convince investors that the next three meetings of 2016 are "live." Okay.

 

Newsflash. The U.S. economy is slowing.

 

Take a look below at some recent headscratching headlines courtesy of our omnipotent Fed. You can't make this stuff up.

 

Asinine Fed Doublespeak (You Just Can't Make This Stuff Up) - dudley 8 2

 

Here's the opening line from CNBC's story:

 

"The market shouldn't be ruling out the possibility the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again this year, William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said on Monday."

 

Now cue the Reuters story (again the opening line):

 

"The Federal Reserve should be cautious on interest rate increases due to lingering risks to the U.S. economy, one of its most influential policymakers said on Monday, appearing to signal the chance of a hike by the end of the year was fading."

 

(NO WORDS...)

BUT wait. it gets worse.

 

Enter Dallas Fed head Robert Kaplan with his two cents. 

 

Asinine Fed Doublespeak (You Just Can't Make This Stuff Up) - kaplan 8 2

 

Holy smokes.

 

All of this is seemingly innocuous to a casual observer. But it underscores the frenetic nature of Fed following these days. Here's a brief recap of the year-to-date Fed policy pivots which is either disillusioning or highly frustrating (perhaps both):

 

  • Hawkish in December
  • Dovish in March
  • Hawkish in May
  • Dovish in June
  • Hawkish in July

Asinine Fed Doublespeak (You Just Can't Make This Stuff Up) - Fed grasping cartoon 01.14.2015 

 

These Fed heads put even the most wish-washy of flip flopping politicians to shame...

 

Asinine Fed Doublespeak (You Just Can't Make This Stuff Up) - fed flip flops

What does it all mean?

 

Here's a mouthful: Following the frantic Fed's fork-tongued forecasts is a fool's errand.

 

Fade the Fed.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Another Week Of Record Outflows

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Another Week Of Record Outflows - dollar pic

This is a complimentary research note originally published July 28, 2016 by our Financials team. If you would like more info on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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