McCullough: Chasing European Stocks? Don't Look At This Sobering Data

Takeaway: Investors buying the pop in European equities will have deal with unequivocally bearish data that doesn't go away post today's Brexit vote.

McCullough: Chasing European Stocks? Don't Look At This Sobering Data - eu ref 


I guess no Brexit was the 2016 Global Equity bull market catalyst all along!


The pound tapped $1.49 this morning and that’s one mother of a move in the context of where GBP/USD has been for the last 6 months – on my immediate-term signal, that’s pricing in a triple-no-exit! I’m going into this with no FX position (sorry, can’t build my research firm on coin tosses) other than long Gold (risk range 1253-1306/oz).



Meanwhile, the FTSE is up +1.4% to 6349 with a refreshed immediate-term risk range of 5819-6403 so the asymmetry from here is to the downside; same thing with the DAX on a risk range of 9370-10331 – if they leave, many Global Equity markets will resume their draw-downs (and crashes) from their 2015 cycle peaks – if they remain, they probably sell on the news anyway.


Here's the unequivocally bearish data that doesn't go away post today's Brexit vote:



And imagine what happens to these stock market chasers if they vote to leave? No blaming machines...


CHART OF THE DAY: Brexit: 'Brits Don't Quit!'

Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Director Matthew Hedrick. Click here to learn more.


"... But will Brits actually vote themselves out of the EU?  We’ll reiterate here that we expect the Remain camp to prevail, but as the aggregate “Poll of Polls” below shows, it’s a split race (50/50).  In addition, recent results of individual polls show there’s a very sizable number of undecided voters, representing some 6% to 13%, depending on the poll, who we think will tip the balance marginally to Remain."


CHART OF THE DAY: Brexit: 'Brits Don't Quit!' - Brexit EL 1

Cartoon of the Day: Enough Already!

Cartoon of the Day: Enough Already! - Brexit cartoon 06.23.2016


It's nauseating how much the mainstream media talks about Thursday's U.K. referendum.

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Fact Versus Fiction: Dispelling The Fallacy That Everyone Is Bearish

Takeaway: The most consensus position in macro right now is actually long the S&P 500.

Fact Versus Fiction: Dispelling The Fallacy That Everyone Is Bearish - consensus cartoon 06.21.2016


Consensus is as long the S&P 500 as they have been all year.


Here’s what Consensus Macro positioning looks like from a CFTC futures and options perspective:


  • SP500 (Index + E-mini) net LONG position of +117,566 contracts = +2.63x 1YR z-score


For those of you who are new to following us, we measure current macro positioning across multiple durations relative to where the positioning has been in the past. Anything plus or minus 2x tends to be a great contrarian indicator.


Fact Versus Fiction: Dispelling The Fallacy That Everyone Is Bearish - macro show consensus pos


Watch Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explain consensus positioning in the video below:


Capital Brief: The Numbers Behind Clinton Vs. Trump (Fundraising & Staffers)

Takeaway: Money Ain't A Thang; General Election Ground Game; Far Worse Than Fundraising; Clinton's Claims

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email


Capital Brief: The Numbers Behind Clinton Vs. Trump (Fundraising & Staffers) - JT   Potomac under 1 mb


“Status quo, you know, is Latin for 'the mess we're in'.”

― Ronald Reagan


Really - it’s not an issue for Donald Trump, but despite claims that he’s worth over $10 billion, the same can’t be said for his campaign. His war chest – if you’d even call it that - currently holds only $1.3 million. That’s about the size of a congressional campaign. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has outraised him by a long shot, boasting $42 million in cash, and climbing at an even faster rate than the primary, putting the Republican front-runner on ice with less than five months to go. Recent FEC filings also show that Trump’s campaign has rented his own venues, jets, and hotels, and that Trump continues to loan the campaign money – bringing the total amount of Trump loans to $45.7 million. If Republican pockets aren’t deep enough, Trump promises that he will personally fund his own campaign...


Clinton now holds early leads in four key swing states - FL, VA, MI, WI – further underscoring our point that having an organization really does pay off. If Trump wants to stay in it, he’s going to need boots on the ground – and fast. His campaign currently employs only 69 staffers, while Clinton woefully outnumbers him with 685. Trump boasts that he runs a lean, tight-knit campaign, but that won’t cut it. In states like battleground NC, Clinton employs around 100 staffers, while Trump counts 10. Though, with the race looking tighter in PA and OH, Trump has an opportunity to be competitive in two of the most critical states this fall.


When all is said and done, it’s not the money, organization, or events that people remember – it’s the message. “Make America Great Again” was a sturdy slogan during primary campaign –  something supporters could hang their hats on - but now, that message appears to be muddled. Though Trump held campaign rallies last week in five states run by Republican Governors (four were potential battleground states - AZ, NV, GA, NC) - not one of them appeared on stage with him. If that doesn’t sound the alarm, then what does?


Clinton cautioned voters of a “Trump recession” in a speech on the U.S. economy, implying that electing Trump, “the king of debt,” would send the economy into a tailspin. In a speech outlining what won’t make America great again, Clinton feels that she’ll be the one to unite the nation, moving the U.S. economy into prosperous times like never before. She’s taking her message to Capitol Hill today to strategize with House Democrats, while Trump is expected to counterpunch in a speech to badly-needed donors this afternoon.

Did You Catch Janet Yellen’s ‘Crazy’ Response on Zero Rates?


In this brief except from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough weighs in on a head-scratching moment between Fed chair Janet Yellen and Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) during her testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.


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