A Closer Look At Brexit, European Equities, & Pound Vs. USD

A Closer Look At Brexit, European Equities, & Pound Vs. USD - pound 6 20


"Thank goodness for no Brexit - we were running out of global equity bull market catalysts!" Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in a note to subscribers this morning.


European equity markets surged on the news that Brexit polling showed a "resurgence" of the "Remain" camp. Here's the latest from MarketWatch:


"An opinion poll by Survation for newspaper the Mail on Sunday showed 45% in favor of remaining and 42% in favor of leaving. That telephone poll was conducted Friday and Saturday, after the killing of British politician Jo Cox. It shows a swing back to “remain,” as a previous survey conducted on Thursday by Survation had put Brexit in the lead by 3 points."


A Closer Look At Brexit, European Equities, & Pound Vs. USD - european equities 6 20 16


But take a look at the latest aggregate polling below, which shows "stay or leave" odds at essentially a coin toss (with 11% of the electorate undecided heading into Thursday's vote):


A Closer Look At Brexit, European Equities, & Pound Vs. USD - polling brexit


Here's additional Brexit analysis from McCullough:


"FTSE: +2.6% (DAX +3.3%) in a straight line to 6172 with intermediate-term TREND line up at 6335; anything that isn’t closed in Global Equity markets doing the same so they better not Brexit!"



"Big pop for Pound vs. USD of +1.8% taking it right back to where it’s been twice now (1.46-1.47) in both April and May; can it hold? Sure. Can it do this every day? Doubt it. Everything reflation should love it today regardless (Dollar Down)"



Finally, take a look at today's Chart of the Day, which shows the Pound/U.S. Dollar fluctuations tightly tracking Brexit "Remain" odds.


A Closer Look At Brexit, European Equities, & Pound Vs. USD - 06.20.16 Chart


More to come.

CHART OF THE DAY: The Volatile Brexit Crapshoot

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"... So if they the British don’t exit… and:


  1. The British Pound ramps right back to where it’s been multiple times this year ($1.46-1.47)
  2. The FTSE rips right back to intermediate-term @Hedgeye TREND resistance of 6335
  3. All equity markets worldwide go straight up …


What could possibly go wrong?


Nothing, obviously. Until the causal factor (worldwide cyclical and secular #GrowthSlowing) on why most things political that are American, Chinese, European, Japanese, etc. aren’t dying starts to get reported again, that is…"


CHART OF THE DAY: The Volatile Brexit Crapshoot - 06.20.16 Chart

REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.


Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)




1. McGough: 8 Retail Stocks With Credit Cycle Risk (6/17/2016)



In this excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough explains why certain retailers are overexposed to a rollover in the credit cycle.


2. REPLAY: Healthcare Q&A with Tom Tobin | $AHS $HCA $HOLX $MD $ZBH (6/16/2016)



Our Healthcare analysts Tom Tobin and Andrew Freedman hosted a live Q&A earlier today to discuss their top ideas and the latest trends in the Healthcare space.


Topics include:

  • Employment, JOLTS and #ACATaper Update related to AHS, HCA, HOLX, MD and ZBH
  • ATHN Tracker Update and Latest Thoughts

Click here to access the associated slides. 


3. About Everything | Q&A with Neil Howe & Tom Tobin: Demographic Warning Shots Fired In America (6/16/2016)



In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe explores the troubling rise in the U.S. mortality rate that's coincided with declining fertility rates. Howe walks through the myriad demographic and social trends which have conspired to cause this development.


Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.


Click here to access the associated slides.


4. Drake: Why The Central Planning #BeliefSystem Is Breaking Down (6/16/2016)



In this excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Christian Drake gives subscribers a brief tutorial on one of our top three Macro Themes.


5. McCullough: My Response To Today’s Fed Statement (6/15/2016)



In this special HedgeyeTV presentation, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why “the Fed is not trying to protect the American people and their cost of living. It wants to keep the financial market bubbles that they created intact.” 


6. Credit Cycle: The Beginning Of The End? (6/15/2016)



In this excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner joins CEO Keith McCullough to discuss why the #CreditCycle is just beginning to wreak havoc on financial markets. Steiner cites the recent blowup in Synchrony Financial (SYF) as a prime example.


7. Drake: Keep An Eye On (Decelerating) Income Growth (6/14/2016)



In this excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake explains why income growth continues to slow and what it means for the U.S. economy.


8. The Clock Is Ticking: Will Trump Bring The GOP Together? (6/14/2016)



Much is being made of Donald Trump’s inability to unite Republicans at this stage of the campaign. Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor takes a look and offers some key thoughts on the subject, as well how Hillary Clinton stacks up on the Democratic side.

Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)




1. Bear Grillz (6/17/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - gold cartoon 06.17.2016


For investors bearish on U.S. economic growth, like us, Gold is having an amazing run this year. Year-to-date, Gold (GLD) is up 21.7% versus up just 1.4% for the S&P 500.


2. Brexit (6/16/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Brexit cartoon 06.16.2016


A few catalysts to keep an eye on: 

  1. The Fed (Yellen went dovish yesterday and equities turned red on that into the close)
  2. Brexit (what if they do exit?)
  3. Mean Reversion and performance chasing


3. For The Birds... (6/15/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Fed birdbrain cartoon 06.15.2015


"Fed 'data dependence' or absolute mediocrity in forecasting?" Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote following today's FOMC statement. "The Fed was hawkish in December, dovish in March and April, hawkish in May and now dovish again in June."


4. An Update On Global Bond Yields (6/14/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Yield cartoon 06.14.2016


The yield on the 10-year German Bund hit an all-time low today falling into negative territory for the first time ever. Global sovereign bond yields continue to make new lows as #GrowthSlowing fears persist.


5. Living In A Bubble? (6/13/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Soros cartoon 06.13.2016


Last week, hedge fund titan George Soros grabbed headlines after it was announced he had come out of semi-retirement and placed bearish bets, shorting the S&P 500 and buying gold. 

The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 20th of June through the 24th of June is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.



The Week Ahead - 06.17.16 Macro Week Ahead

Capital Brief: Donald Under Duress? ... & Rubio Reconsiders

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email


Capital Brief: Donald Under Duress? ... & Rubio Reconsiders - JT   Potomac under 1 mb


I'm not the smartest fellow in the world, but I can sure pick smart colleagues.”



After the IN primary six short weeks ago, Donald Trump was atop some national polls and riding a high wave of Republican endorsements on his way to unifying the party, while Hillary Clinton was left to battle an insurgent and struggling to unite her own party.  After two tumultuous weeks of picking fights with everyone in his path, Trump has found himself alone and losing momentum faster than ever.


Republicans have had a knee jerk reactions to criticizing the nominee early and often in the past, but the frequency with which they’re doing it now is different and more problematic. With less than a month before the convention, he hasn’t won endorsements from many of his former primary opponents, has yet to put together a core finance team and is creating tension with the RNC - his only (and largest) organizational back up for the next five months. Does this guy really want to win?


Our nation’s gun laws have many Democrats up in arms and now Trump - who throughout his campaign has expressed his opposition to gun control - has been prompted to meet with the National Rifle Association over the issue in the wake of the Orlando massacre. Trump has backed a no-buy list for FBI watch list members and the NRA has opposed the measure concerned that Americans wrongfully placed on list were being stripped of their constitutional rights to due process.


Tensions have emerged on Capitol Hill after a 15-hour filibuster by Senate Democrats has forced Republicans to hold votes on two separate gun measures - with PA Senator Pat Toomey being one of few Republicans willing to cross party lines on the issue.


When Senator Marco Rubio launched his presidential campaign, he made the bold promise of winning the White House or bust - but a lot has changed since then especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. Holding onto the Senate was always going to be a challenge for Republicans given the number of seats they had to defend and now with the political winds changing, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his colleagues feel Rubio is their best hope to keep FL in the red column.


As the Democratic frontrunner, Rep. Patrick Murphy has been the beneficiary of the party’s growth in registration and fundraising in the state making him the early favorite…if Rubio doesn’t run. Rubio has exactly one week to decide if he’ll throw his hat in the ring.

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