Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.
"... As we’ve highlighted, just because we’re charged with generating high-frequency macro commentary doesn’t mean the slower, temporal progression of the cycle ceases to exists. As the Chart of the Day below illustrates, our larger, late-cycle point is simply that once we roll past peak rate-of-change in payroll growth, it’s a one way street towards convergence with 0%. The period of the cycle is years and historical precedents suggest some further runway in the present employment expansion but the slope of the line has now been negative for 15 months and the baseline expectation should be for that to continue to play itself out in autocorrelated fashion to the downside."