Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Traditionally, conventional wisdom holds that vice presidential picks are hype and for the most part don’t matter much (for the most part), but with this being a very unconventional year, the veep pick may matter – a lot.
Given weaknesses and sagging favorability stats for both frontrunners, we believe the veep pick will unify the Democrats and help Hillary Clinton win over Bernie Sanders supporters and the liberal wing of the party; Donald Trump’s pick will serve to counterbalance the ticket, calming Republican nerves and and adding credibility to the ticket.
WHEN DOES CLINTON CAVE?
Clinton has been dogged for more than a year as being too shifty insisting she broke no rules by maintaining her own private email server while Secretary of State. If she expects to win this November, she’ll need to break that syndrome as her half-hearted attempts to explain away her email server are not reassuring.
Top Clinton allies have highlighted the importance for her to engage directly on the trust issue and re-center her campaign on positive footing with a positive agenda - resorting to negative campaigning already failed miserably for Trump’s primary opponents.
HEAD ON COLLISION
We’ve been lamenting the pace of the appropriations process this year, and now top Republicans leaders are heading down opposite tracks with spending bills setting up a collision course in the coming months. Speaker Paul Ryan’s pledge to give members more input in the legislative process is handicapping him and his ability to move any legislation, while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell feels he has restored order to the once dysfunctional Senate passing eight approps bills out of committee - with bipartisan support.
If both fail to resolve conflicting priorities, expect yet another massive late-year omnibus deal or a default to multi-month stopgaps. Did we mention funding for the government expires right before the presidential election?