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3 Charts: Why We're Still Bearish On U.S. Growth

Takeaway: Our reading of the bond market, consumer confidence, and S&P 500 earnings confirms our U.S. #GrowthSlowing call.

3 Charts: Why We're Still Bearish On U.S. Growth - GDP cartoon 04.26.2016

 

Nothing about today's economic data changes our thinking that U.S. economic growth continues its descent off the cycle peak.

 

Quite the contrary. We’re sticking with our sub-1% GDP forecast for Q2 and the worst profits of #TheCycle in Q2 and Q3. 

 

All is not well in the U.S. economy, particularly in manufacturing. Today's Chicago PMI clocked in a recessionary 49.3 vs. 50.4 last month. Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey fell -13.1%, contracting alongside the four other regional Fed manufacturing surveys.

 

Not good.

 

In the bond market...

 

The yield spread (10-year minus 2-year Treasury) is not budging. It's still at YTD lows of 94 basis points wide. That's a crystal clear U.S. #GrowthSlowing indicator.

 

3 Charts: Why We're Still Bearish On U.S. Growth - 10yr treasury 5 31 today

 

Today's U.S. Consumer Confidence reading did little to inspire, well, confidence. 

 

It slowed (again) in May to 92.6 vs. 94.7 last month. #TheCycle peak was in 1H 2015. Notice what happens to consumer confidence, in the chart below, once it rolls off the cycle peak.

 

3 Charts: Why We're Still Bearish On U.S. Growth - consumer confidence 5 31

 

S&P 500 Earnings are downright terrible.

 

A grand total of 491/498 S&P 500 companies have reported. The results thus far aren't pretty:

  • Aggregate sales and earnings growth have come in at -2.3% and -8.5% respectively;
  • 6/10 sectors have reported negative earnings and sales growth;
  • Energy sales and earnings growth are down -30.1% and -109.1% respectively;
  • Rounding out the bottom of the barrell: Materials sales and earnings growth are down -8.8% and -16% respectively; Financials are down -1.7% and -14.2% respectively;

 

3 Charts: Why We're Still Bearish On U.S. Growth - earnings 5 31


OPEC Meeting Preview: Why $50 Oil Is Cause For Concern

Takeaway: While $50 oil will please most OPEC members, Saudi Arabia's market share policy is based on lower prices for all of 2016.

OPEC Meeting Preview: Why $50 Oil Is Cause For Concern - OPEC cartoon 04.24.2015

 

Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy analyst Joe McMonigle is in Vienna to attend the June 2 OPEC meeting and participate in various pre-meeting activities this week. Hedgeye will host a OPEC meeting preview conference call on Wednesday, June 1 at 1pm EST with Joe from Vienna and former US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham from Washington. (For access to the call, email sales@hedgeye.com.)

 

First, we are not expecting any change in OPEC policy (i.e. production freeze or cut) at this meeting but Joe will be watching closely for signals of how OPEC may approach the December meeting after significant declines in US and other non-OPEC supply.

 

While he is not predicting a change in policy, Joe believes the December meeting will be the first time in two years when it will be under serious consideration. Meanwhile, production outages in Canada and Nigeria have pushed oil prices to $50.

 

While that will please most OPEC members, $50 oil is too premature from the viewpoint of Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom's market share policy is based on lower prices for all of 2016; therefore, sustained prices around $50 now will cause concern in Riyadh and could trigger some response.


McCullough: The Call Is Clear, Raise Cash

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough issues a stern directive to investors and explains the reasons why.


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About Everything: Everything Must Go

Are department stores an endangered species?

 

Editor's Note: In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses why department stores are slowly fading away. "The downward arc started well over a decade ago—long before the Great Recession," Howe writes. "In fact, you need to go back to the Clinton ‘90s to find a really healthy growth year for department stores... Those days are long gone."

 

About Everything: Everything Must Go - department stores

WHAT’S HAPPENING?

 

Department store executives were hoping ahead of earnings season that they wouldn’t have to break more bad news to the investors who remain onboard.

 

No such luck.

 

Top players like Dillard’s, Macy’s, and Nordstrom reported their worst YOY same-store sales results since the Great Recession, with some seeing drops in the 5 percent range (or more, in Macy’s case). Forecasters at Green Street Advisors estimate that it would take closing one-fifth of the industry’s total mall floor space to get department stores back to their pre-recession sales per square foot.

 

The downward arc started well over a decade ago—long before the Great Recession. In fact, you need to go back to the Clinton ‘90s to find a really healthy growth year for department stores. That was back when we were still building malls and when malls were still cool in the eyes of teen “mall rats” (all Gen-Xers) who wandered around in movies like Clueless.

 

Those days are long gone. As a whole, department stores have only had a handful of quarters of positive sales growth since the dot-com bubble burst. Millennials, unlike Xers, equate department stores with slow extinction and think of malls as places to go not be seen (see deadmalls.com).

 

About Everything: Everything Must Go - neil 3 5 31

 

It’s useful to divide department stores into three basic tiers: upscale, middle, and discount. All tiers have performed poorly over the last 15 fifteen years, but some have done better than others. Overall, the discount tier—including Target and Walmart—has done the best. These stores kept their value better during the recession, and they have dropped less since last spring.

 

The upscale firms like Saks Fifth Avenue, Nordstrom, and Neiman Marcus have done less well. And as for middle tier stores like JC Penney, Macy’s, Sears, and Kohl’s, well, by all accounts they’ve been getting hammered. Problem for the middle tier: they can’t beat the upper tier on quality, and they can’t beat the lower tier on price. 

 

About Everything: Everything Must Go - neil 4 5 31

 

Share prices tell the story. JC Penney sits below $8, nearly the lowest price in the company’s 30-plus year history. Upper-skewing firms like Dillard’s and Macy’s (which owns Bloomingdale’s) fared better than most until the middle of last year—at which point they too tumbled down to earth. In fact, all department stores not named Walmart or Target have actually lost value since 2011, making the benchmark S&P 500 look like a star performer by comparison.

 

About Everything: Everything Must Go - neil 5 5 31

WHY IT’S HAPPENING: DRIVERS

 

Product lines: In April, when total retail sales posted a YOY gain of +3.0%—a good-news surprise to most analysts—department stores shared none of the bounty. Their YOY gain was -0.3%. One obvious drag is that department stores happen to be dominated by precisely those product categories where sales growth throughout the economy has been weakest in recent years: clothing and accessories (+1.3% YOY in April), electronics and appliances (-2.0%), and food and beverages (+1.9%). Quite simply, department store sales are harnessed to the weakest horses.

 

The product-line picture isn’t totally bleak. Many stores sell furniture and home furnishings (+3.6% YOY in April) or sporting goods, hobby, books, and music (+4.2%). Yet most of this growth has been captured by specialty stores. Department stores tend to target the nonspecialized mainstream. And here, the sharing economy rules. Shoppers who might otherwise spend hundreds on a brand-new average-looking couch at Walmart or Macy’s can now buy a slightly used one on Craigslist for a sliver of the price.

 

About Everything: Everything Must Go - neil 6 5 31

 

An ever-shrinking middle class. Pew Research reported that in 2015, for the first time ever, fewer consumers lived in households earning between two-thirds and double the median income (120.8 million) than in lower- and higher-earning households (121.3 million). Another Pew study found that, between 2000 and 2014, the middle class lost ground in nearly nine out of ten U.S. metro areas.

 

This new “hourglass economy,” where most spending takes place at the high and low ends, threatens department stores that always relied upon middle-earning households.

 

Generational change. It’s not just the “middle class” as an income bracket that’s waning—but also the “middle class” as a collective self-image.

 

From their very origins in the late-19th century, department stores have always targeted the “middle-of -the-road” consumer with standard fare at standard prices. (Thanks to the economies of scale provided by catalogues and railroad delivery, Sears, Roebuck, and Company was the amazon-like behemoth of its day.)

 

After World War II, these firms enjoyed a new growth spurt with the G.I. and Silent generations, who embodied Middle America in every sense. These “Great Society” architects saw department stores as a way to infuse order and efficiency into the wild west of Mom-and-Pop retail. As consumers, they craved uniformity and mass-produced goods—stuff that would allow you to fit in happily with your suburban neighbors on a “Pleasant Valley Sunday.”

 

But this all changed with Boomers, who wanted authentic products made just for them, as unique individuals. Today, Boomer and Gen-X shoppers are either “trading up” for better quality or “trading down” for better price. Department stores check neither box.

 

About Everything: Everything Must Go - neil howe callout box 5 31

 

In response to Boomers and Xers, department stores have been gradually ramping up on the diversity of its style and brand selection—until all the diversity practically pours out of the shelves onto the floors. But here’s the irony. Most Millennials no longer want what department stores have lately been emphasizing: more choice. Plenty would rather shop at a specialty store that effectively chooses the right product for them than at a sprawling department store that offers forty different brands of handbags scattered down three separate aisles.

 

The rise of e-commerce. Online platforms allow consumers to get exactly what they want without ever leaving the couch. E-commerce sales now make up nearly 70 cents for every dollar spent at brick-and-mortar stores, up from around 30 cents per dollar back in 2000. The gap between e-tail revenue growth and department store revenue growth is on the order of 15 to 20 percentage points annually. It’s not even close. 

 

About Everything: Everything Must Go - neil 7 5 31

 

E-commerce transactions are not just convenient, but fast: Why trek out to the mall when Amazon Prime will deliver what you need within the day—or even the hour?

HOW DEPARTMENT STORES ARE RESPONDING

 

Upper- and middle-tier firms are going cheap. In a grab for consumers with less purchasing power, Macy’s is experimenting with “Backstage,” an outlet store built into a handful of its existing retail locations. (Macy’s experiment with no sales and no promotions was a disaster, which should have told them something about who their customers are.)

 

Luxury firms are no strangers to this strategy, either. At Saks Off 5th, shoppers can get Saks quality for a modest price. As for Nordstrom, the company’s Nordstrom Rack discount outposts now outnumber its legacy stores. Who can blame them? While Nordstrom’s full-priced sales recently dropped 4.3 percent YOY, its discount business grew 4.6 percent.

 

Goodbye, soft goods. Department stores are branching out into hard goods to escape the doldrums of apparel sales. JC Penney announced earlier this year that it would start selling appliances again for the first time in decades. Macy’s recently added consumer electronics in some of its stores through a partnership with Best Buy.

 

Sears is taking it one step further: The firm has opened a 10,000-square-foot outpost in Colorado packed only with appliances.

 

Investing in private labels. At a time when bestsellers are hard to come by, department stores are hanging onto their homegrown cash cows for dear life.

 

Kohl’s offers 20 exclusive private labels, three of which generate more than $1 billion annually—including its star-performing Sonoma brand.

 

Under new CEO Marvin Ellison, JC Penney has gotten back into in-house labels as well—a strategy that has provided a 6.6 percentage-point boost to the company’s gross margins over the past three years.

 

Emulating e-commerce giants. Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s, and Nordstrom have taken a page out of Amazon’s playbook by rolling out same-day delivery in select locations.

 

That’s a good start, sure, but these firms should go a step further by exploiting things that brock-and-mortar does better than e-commerce: high-touch customer service, perhaps, or maybe specializing in large, complex purchases that beg for a knowledgeable salesperson. With in-store analytics married to Big Data, physical retail can at last know as much about its customers as digital retail.

IS IT WORKING?

 

Not yet—but the industry still has hope. Despite the runaway success of e-commerce, there may be room for one or two traditional department stores that play their cards right. As for the rest, some will disappear (receivership, merger) and others will exit the genre by becoming high-end specialty stores or big-box category killers.

 

So which firms have the best shot of surviving and prospering?

 

It’s hard to say for certain, of course. But I would bet heavily against today’s middle-tier firms. It will be tough for any of them to turn the tide without completely reinventing themselves to compete with either the Nordstroms of the world on quality or the Walmarts on price. High- and low-end firms are better positioned to exploit what they do best and maybe, just maybe, stop the bleeding.

 

Many of the high-end stores will survive by specializing in fewer product lines. Most discount stores don’t have that option—and will be hardest pressed by e-tailers. Yet precisely because they have no alternative, these discount stores will be most likely to figure out how to grow their bottom line while still maintaining their department store identity.

 

They will do so in part on the strength of their brand connection with the fast-growing share of Americans (40% in 2014, up from only 25% in 2008 according to Pew Research) who self-identify as “lower” or “lower-middle” class. The generation most responsible for this shift is today’s Millennials, who also happen to be tomorrow’s middle class. Hip young Gen-Xers flocked to edgy boutiques. Hip young Millennials flock to one-size-fits-all thrift shops.

 

Already, a couple of the big discount brands are aligning themselves well. Just look at Target, one of the few firms investors haven’t yet given up on. It has combined a bright, upmarket atmosphere with basics-first selection and downmarket prices—in other words, Target offers what Millennials want. Walmart, meanwhile, beats everyone on price, an identity in itself. That’s why the two companies rank among the top ten favorite Millennial brands.

 

About Everything: Everything Must Go - neil 8 5 31

TAKEAWAYS

  • Department stores are hurting. Their once-reliable middle-class customer base is dwindling, and today’s consumers are either splurging for better goods or going elsewhere for lower prices.
  • Companies are trying everything to turn the tide, from offering lower-priced goods to investing in private labels. But in the end, middle-tier firms may be too far behind already to make up the distance. Bet on the discount tier to become the future core of this retail category.

XLU: We Are Removing Utilities From Investing Ideas

Takeaway: Please note we are removing Utilities from Investing Ideas (long side) today.

XLU: We Are Removing Utilities From Investing Ideas - Yellen data dependent cartoon 11.18.2015

 

In today's Early Look, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explained why investors should be selling long exposure to Utilities (XLU):

 

"I didn’t think the Fed would be stubborn enough to stay with a pseudo “mid-cycle” economic view, I didn’t think they’d pivot from hawkish (DEC) to dovish (MAR-APR) back to hawkish (MAY)… but I guess I thought wrong (I thought she was data dependent!).

 

That’s why I sent out SELL signals (i.e. take down exposures) to my favorite intermediate to long-term LONG ideas after listening to Janet on Friday. After having such a great start to the year by simply staying with #TheCycle call, why would I just let the Fed making a policy mistake eat into my family’s hard earned absolute returns?

 

In the end, I think the Fed will be proven wrong (again) and the curve will continue to flatten as the rate of change in US economic growth slows in Q2 and Q3. But in between now and the end, I have to deal with the risk these bad Fed estimates impose on my portfolio’s preferred asset allocation. So this is what the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model’s key moves look like, in context:

 

  1. CASH going to 77% (from 49% when US Equities hit their May lows)
  2. Taking US Equities from 6% back to 0% (like I did in late DEC)
  3. Taking Fixed Income 31% to 11% (i.e. from 91% of my max exposure to 33%)"

 

XLU: We Are Removing Utilities From Investing Ideas - asset allocation 5 31


BA, LMT, RTN, HII, GD WILL BENEFIT FROM CONGRESS' DEFENSE SPENDING BOOST IN FY17

Takeaway: Like the House, the Senate is moving quickly to increase investment in big ticket programs in the FY17 Pentagon spending bill.

With a bipartisan vote of 30-1, the Senate Appropriations Committee released its FY17 defense spending bill report and it is very good news for defense prime contractors.

 

Like the House, the Senate bill "finds" $15B to fund most of the services' unfunded priority lists for more fighters, more ships and higher readiness levels that were not requested by the President.  Unlike the House, the Senate "finds" the money from within the President's request itself rather than by underfunding the OCO budget.  

 

Technically, both the House and Senate versions conform to the President's baseline request for ~$524B and OCO of ~$59B.  The difference is that the House appropriators use $16B of OCO funding for additional baseline items, funding overseas operations only until 30 April 2017 with the intent of adding supplemental funds in the spring.   In contrast, the Senate version funds the entire year's worth of OCO costs and then "finds" $15B within the baseline by taking $3.8B in recissions from prior year funds, assuming higher fuel costs savings of $1.6B, and then making relatively small changes to over 450 line items.  The Senate version funds many of the same unrequested items that the House would fund by underfunding the OCO account. 

 

When it is time to conference the House and Senate versions (probably not until the fall), the Senate version will come in as the lower in terms of defense spending. Given standard Congressional rules that confine conference topics to the differences in the bills,  this means that FY 2017 defense spending will be at least what the Senate Appropriations Committee has recommended. Changes in the House-Senate conference are therefore likely to be further increases to the Senate version.  

 

Of primary interest to investors is the clear consensus that Congress is going to increase the procurement portion of the defense budget by at least $5B:

 

BA, LMT, RTN, HII, GD WILL BENEFIT FROM CONGRESS' DEFENSE SPENDING BOOST IN FY17 - Screen Shot 2016 05 28 at 10.47.50 PM

 

 By analyzing the Senate Appropriations Committee changes we can derive by company the minimum amount of increase each of the major defense primes should see in the FY 2017 Pentagon budget.  Although we are three to six months from a final bill, we can anticipate the following changes to the President's request as a worst case with a look to further increases in any compromise.

 

Boeing (BA) +$750M. Like the House, the Senate keeps Boeing's St Louis line going for yet another year by adding +$979M that was not requested for 12 F/A-18E/F.  The Senate adds two V-22s worth +$135M to the PresBud request for $1.2B. On the negative side, the Senate gives the P-8 Poseidon anti-sub aircraft program a haircut of -$120M from the PresBud request of $1.9B.  The Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) space launch program, which at one time was the exclusive turf of United Launch Alliance (ULA), BA's joint venture with LMT, will see a substantial reduction of -$495M from the PresBud request for $1.5B as the Senate pushes for a change to DoD's acquisition strategy.

 

Lockheed Martin (LMT) +$800M.  The Senate adds +$355M for UH-60 for the National Guard to the PresBud request for $755M. The President's request for $7.7B for F-35s will include four additional jets for the Marines (House added a total of 11 acft) but the program will see a net reduction of -$148M after all haircuts have taken place. There are +$263M in additions to the $146M requested for C130J and Compass Call. As above, LMT's share in ULA will suffer a shared $495M hit to EELV program.  Missile defense continues to shine with $50M added to the $370M Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense budget and +$50M to the $464M THAAD program.  By adding +$475M to build an unrequested third ship in FY17, the Senate joins the House in resisting the Navy's plan to early downselect and truncate the Littoral Combat Ship.

 

 Raytheon (RTN) +$290M.  Missile defense is the coin of the realm and especially Israeli missile defense. Congress has forced Israel to take Raytheon on as a co-producer of its US-subsidized hardware and to that end has added +$20M for the low altitude Iron Dome system, +$120M for the medium altitude David's Sling, and +$150M for the high altitude Arrow system. The Senate adds +$49M for additional Tomahawks while RTN weapon programs like AMRAAM and Standard Missile take small hits as contributions to the kitty. 

 

 Shipbuilding: +$2.1B Apart from the $475M for the LCS, the duopoly of HII and GD will split +$85M added to the $1.8B Va class submarine program, +$403M for the remaining payment on an additional DDG-51.  Congress added $1B to build the first polar icebreaker since 1976 with the builder as yet unclear.  HII is the likely beneficiary of +$200M towards LX(R), a new class of amphibious ships.  

 

 

 


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