The Great Debate: #Reflation or #GrowthSlowing

The Great Debate: #Reflation or #GrowthSlowing - growth  cartoon 04.05.2016


Are you long #Reflation or #GrowthSlowing? 


That's the key question investors need to ask themselves going forward. To be clear, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough has some #Reflation signals in RTA over a trade duration (3 weeks or less) but we're The Bulls on #GrowthSlowing.


Here's analysis via McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning. 


"In terms of both Asset Allocation and longs vs. shorts in Real-Time Alerts, this as long as I’ve been all year. To be clear, that means I’m down to 49% Cash! And that’s mainly because the USD is signaling immediate-term TRADE overbought, so many of the #Reflation trades signaled immediate-term TRADE oversold this week (i.e. buy/cover signals)."



Like Russia...



Or commodity-linked Australia...



As McCullough wrote in today's Early Look, "growth is slowing faster than inflation is rising. And, in the intermediate to long-term, growth slowing at an accelerating rate, trumps inflation rising at a decelerating rate."


Here's how to trade that via McCullough... 


"Dollar Down, Rates Down is the other big reason for the setup (i.e. I can be long the Long Bond, Utes, Gold, etc. in that scenario); Gold’s immediate-term risk range = $1250-1280, so not a ton of upside from here but I’ll take what I can get."



Stick with your #GrowthSlowing positions here.