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The Great Debate: #Reflation or #GrowthSlowing - growth  cartoon 04.05.2016

Are you long #Reflation or #GrowthSlowing? 

That's the key question investors need to ask themselves going forward. To be clear, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough has some #Reflation signals in RTA over a trade duration (3 weeks or less) but we're The Bulls on #GrowthSlowing.

Here's analysis via McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning. 

"In terms of both Asset Allocation and longs vs. shorts in Real-Time Alerts, this as long as I’ve been all year. To be clear, that means I’m down to 49% Cash! And that’s mainly because the USD is signaling immediate-term TRADE overbought, so many of the #Reflation trades signaled immediate-term TRADE oversold this week (i.e. buy/cover signals)."

Like Russia...

Or commodity-linked Australia...

As McCullough wrote in today's Early Look, "growth is slowing faster than inflation is rising. And, in the intermediate to long-term, growth slowing at an accelerating rate, trumps inflation rising at a decelerating rate."

Here's how to trade that via McCullough... 

"Dollar Down, Rates Down is the other big reason for the setup (i.e. I can be long the Long Bond, Utes, Gold, etc. in that scenario); Gold’s immediate-term risk range = $1250-1280, so not a ton of upside from here but I’ll take what I can get."

 

Stick with your #GrowthSlowing positions here.