prev

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)

 

Enjoy!

 

1. Liftoff! (5/20/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Helicopter money 05.20.2016

 

After Quantitative Easing and NIRP (negative interest-rate policy) have failed to deliver economic growth, central planners are now talking about helicopter money. Delusional? Yes.

 

2. Whole Lotta Bull (5/19/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Usidedown bull 05.19.2016

 

The S&P 500 is flat year-to-date. That explains a lot. "There's so much whining out there... Stop it. And start winning," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. In other words, get long our favorite Macro Ideas... Long Bonds (TLT), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD). 

 

3. Crash Tech Dummies? (5/18/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - NASDAQ cartoon 05.18.2016

 

"The Nasdaq moved back into full-blown correction mode yesterday (-10% from its all-time bubble high in 2015)," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote earlier this morning. It's now down -9.5% from that high today.

 

Phew!

 

"Inclusive of the Buffett-bounce in AAPL," McCullough continues, "the Nasdaq is down -4.8% in the last month alone. Lots of chart chasers are not liking their Tech charts anymore (reminder: at #TheCycle peaks of 2000 and 2008 the Nasdaq put in its YTD highs in MAR-MAY too)."

 

4. Oh Fudge (5/17/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - FED fudge cartoon 05.17.2016

 

The biggest risk in macro? Believing the Fed's serially overoptimistic forecast.

 

5. Cheap, Cheap, Cheap... (5/16/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Cheap cartoon 05.16.2016

 

"I still say short what appears to be “cheap” and keep buying what continues to get more expensive," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in this morning's Early Look.


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 23rd of May through the 27th of May is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The Week Ahead - 05.20.16 Week Ahead


Cartoon of the Day: Liftoff!

Cartoon of the Day: Liftoff! - Helicopter money 05.20.2016

 

After Quantitative Easing and NIRP (negative interest-rate policy) have failed to deliver economic growth, central planners are now talking about helicopter money. Delusional? Yes.


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

ATHN | REMOVING FROM BEST IDEA LIST

Takeaway: We are removing athenahealth (ATHN) from our Best Idea List, but staying long in the Position Monitor.

ATHN | REMOVING FROM BEST IDEA LIST - 20160520 PositionMonitor

removing from best idea list; less conviction 

We are removing athenahealth (ATHN) from our Best Idea List, but staying long in the Position Monitor.  The recent CFO and other high-level employee departures, combined with negative anecdotes related to the Streamlined rollout and what looks like an early slowdown in our tracker reduces our conviction over the intermediate term.  Over the long-term, we continue to believe athenahealth is well positioned to take share in ambulatory and the recently entered inpatient market.  What will get us out of the position completely, and possibly pivot short, is if the athena-Tracker continues to slow over an extended period.  

 

The other high-level employee departures include Senior Financial Officer, Parth Mehrotra, who left in March 2016 for a COO position at Brighton Health Group and Director of Enterprise Sales, Ian Ha, who left in December 2015 for a similar role at Flatiron Health.  We suspect that the Florida Cancer chargeback was related to Ian Ha's departure, as Florida Cancer currently uses Flatiron for their Oncology EMR solution.

streamlined concerns; NPS worse before it gets better

We are becoming increasingly concerned about the disruption that the Streamlined rollout is having on users. We have observed a growing outcry of dissatisfaction both from our outreach using the tracker data, and through various social media and software review websites.  We also witnessed several users discussing their dissatisfaction with Streamlined at the New England HIMSS conference earlier this month.  The reviews are fairly consistent, complaining about "too-many clicks", poor workflow design and lack of responsiveness from account managers, with some even comparing the new EMR to Allscripts.  While we understand that docs don't like change, we would be remiss to ignore the negative and potentially lasting impact this type of disruption can have in such a highly referential industry. As a result, we expect the Net Promoter Score (NPS) to get worse before it gets better and continue to be a headwind to small and group bookings as the Streamlined rollout continues through year-end. 

 

ATHN | REMOVING FROM BEST IDEA LIST - 20160520 Streamlined Reviews 

cfo departure is for the best; repairing damage to culture

While it is never a good sign to see a CFO leave, in this situation, we believe it is for the right reasons and a net positive for the company. As we had expected, the departure was the result of Jonathan Bush needing to step back in as the direct report to oversee and manage the culture, which had been changing for the worse under Kristi Matus's leadership and the dual CFAO role.  The management change is in response to employee comments, such as those on glassdoor.com, as well as a struggle to balance rapid growth and maintain the important employee culture.  This is an issue they have been dealing with for some time and a decision that was not made in haste, but came to in a mutual realization recently (Jonathan Bush/Board and Kristi Matus) that they needed to separate roles and Jonathan Bush, CEO, needed to step back in.  As there was not another suitable EVP level position available, Kristi Matus decided it was best to leave for other opportunities.  

 

Karl Stubelis, CFO and previously Controller for 3-years, reiterated 2016 guidance, and both he and Jonathan Bush emphasized that Kristi Matus's departure was not due to financial or accounting misconduct. 

 

ATHN | REMOVING FROM BEST IDEA LIST - 20160520 Glassdor

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Thomas Tobin
Managing Director 

@HedgeyeHC

 

Andrew Freedman

Analyst

@HedgeyeHIT 


McCullough: If You Don’t Do Macro, Macro Will Do You

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question about whether he thinks there will be a “20% or more” drawdown in the S&P 500 from here. Spoiler Alert: He does.


The Good Stuff: Reports and News Articles you May Have Missed This Week

Takeaway: The best of the best : our favorite reading material from the week of May 16 and a tribute to the King of the Texas Troubadours.

 

Happy Friday! In case your attention was turned toward, say The Fed for example, and you missed some of the more interesting health care articles/videos/podcasts, we have listed our favorites here:

 

Health Care Services

Fighting for Assisted Living Centers, The Hill, May 17, 2016 (Includes discussion of Nursing Homes) - <KND> <GEN> <DVCR>

You Mean I Don't Have to Show Up? The Promise of Telemedicine. NYT, May 16, 2016 <TDOC>

Mental Disorders Top The List Of The Most Costly Conditions In The United States: $201 Billion, Health Affairs, May 2016 <AAC> <ACHC>

 

Clinical Labs

Theranos Plans Bold expansion Even as it Reels From New Setbacks, Stat News, May 19, 2016

 

Health Insurance Coverage

Health Insurance Coverage: Early Release of Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, 2015, Centers for Disease Control, May 17, 2016 <All Health Insurers>

 

Durable Medical Equipment

Providing Quality, Affordable Durable Medical Equipment for Beneficiaries, The CMS Blog, May 17, 2016 (with links to recent accessibility data) <IVC> <MDT> and others

 

HCIT

Health care data as a public utility: how do we get there? Brookings, May 18, 2016 <CERN> <ATHN>

 

Pharma

When Drugs Don't Work, The Economist, May 21, 2016 <All Pharma>

Growth in Specialty Drug Spending from 2013 to 2014, Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association, May 2016 See esp Hep C treatments <GILD>

Columbia's Battle with a Cancer Drug Company Could Set A Global Precedent for Generic Meds, Vice News, May, 19, 2016 <NVS>

Actions by Congress on Opioids Haven't Included Limiting Them, New York Times, May 18, 2016

How Big Pharma Uses Charity Programs to Cover for Drug Price Hikes, Bloomberg, May 19, 2016 <All Pharma>

 

 

Shameless Self-promotion -Hedgeye Health Care Notes/Calls/Musings:

 CY 2017 End Stage Renal Disease Annual Reimbursement Update Sent to White House for Approval, May 19, 2016

REPLAY Q & A (HCA, AHS, ILMN, MDRX) | #ACATAPER, EARNINGS RECAP AND TRACKER UPDATES, May 19, 2016

ILMN | PLAYING   ALONG AT HOME | HDM DATA DOWNLOAD AND FORECAST TOOL FOR CLINICAL SEQUENCING   ADOPTION, May 19, 2016

CY2017 Home Health Annual Payment Update & Changes to Medicare CoP Sent to White House, May 18, 2016

The Hospital Lobby Making Progress on Site Neutral Payment Fix but it is Still Early, May 18, 2016

 

 

Lastly and having nothing to do with health care policy, regulation or legislation, the King of the Texas Troubadours, Guy Clark died this week. It is Friday, So Let Him Roll...

 

 Follow me on Twitter for more throughout the week


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

next