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REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.

 

Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)

 

Enjoy!   

 

1. McCullough: If You Don’t Do Macro, Macro Will Do You (5/20/16)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question about whether he thinks there will be a “20% or more” drawdown in the S&P 500 from here. Spoiler Alert: He does. 

 

2. REPLAY | Today's Healthcare Q&A with Tom Tobin | $HCA $AHS $MDRX $ATHN $HOLX $ILMN (5/19/16)

 

Click here to access the associate slides. 

 

Earlier this week, our Healthcare analysts Tom Tobin and Andrew Freedman discussed their top ideas and the latest trends in the Healthcare space.

 

Topics included:

  • #ACATaper thesis update with latest employment and JOLTS reports and implications for HCA Holdings (HCA) and AMN Healthcare Services (AHS)

  • Allscripts (MDRX) earnings recap and latest thoughts on attrition

  • Athenahealth (ATHN) and Hologic (HOLX) tracker updates

  • Illumina (ILMN)…. Throwing our hat into the ring

 

3. McCullough: History Is An Important Guide To Mr. Market (5/19/2016)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a “fantastic question” about the correlation between the U.S. dollar and Treasuries now that the dollar is getting stronger. 

 

4. Why The 10-Year Yield May Make All-Time Lows (5/19/2016)

 

 

In a brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier this week, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question about whether the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note will fall below 1.50%.

 

5. FLASHBACK | McGough: Target Is A ‘Killer Name On The Short Side’ (5/18/2016)

 

 

Earlier today, Target management blamed an “increasingly volatile consumer environment” for its weak earnings and guidance. Its shares fell as much as 9% on the news. In this prescient HedgeyeTV video flashback from last week, our Retail analyst Brian McGough discussed why Target (TGT) was among his top short ideas ahead of today’s earnings release.


This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)

 

Enjoy!

 

1. Liftoff! (5/20/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Helicopter money 05.20.2016

 

After Quantitative Easing and NIRP (negative interest-rate policy) have failed to deliver economic growth, central planners are now talking about helicopter money. Delusional? Yes.

 

2. Whole Lotta Bull (5/19/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Usidedown bull 05.19.2016

 

The S&P 500 is flat year-to-date. That explains a lot. "There's so much whining out there... Stop it. And start winning," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. In other words, get long our favorite Macro Ideas... Long Bonds (TLT), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD). 

 

3. Crash Tech Dummies? (5/18/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - NASDAQ cartoon 05.18.2016

 

"The Nasdaq moved back into full-blown correction mode yesterday (-10% from its all-time bubble high in 2015)," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote earlier this morning. It's now down -9.5% from that high today.

 

Phew!

 

"Inclusive of the Buffett-bounce in AAPL," McCullough continues, "the Nasdaq is down -4.8% in the last month alone. Lots of chart chasers are not liking their Tech charts anymore (reminder: at #TheCycle peaks of 2000 and 2008 the Nasdaq put in its YTD highs in MAR-MAY too)."

 

4. Oh Fudge (5/17/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - FED fudge cartoon 05.17.2016

 

The biggest risk in macro? Believing the Fed's serially overoptimistic forecast.

 

5. Cheap, Cheap, Cheap... (5/16/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Cheap cartoon 05.16.2016

 

"I still say short what appears to be “cheap” and keep buying what continues to get more expensive," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in this morning's Early Look.


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 23rd of May through the 27th of May is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The Week Ahead - 05.20.16 Week Ahead


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Cartoon of the Day: Liftoff!

Cartoon of the Day: Liftoff! - Helicopter money 05.20.2016

 

After Quantitative Easing and NIRP (negative interest-rate policy) have failed to deliver economic growth, central planners are now talking about helicopter money. Delusional? Yes.


ATHN | REMOVING FROM BEST IDEA LIST

Takeaway: We are removing athenahealth (ATHN) from our Best Idea List, but staying long in the Position Monitor.

ATHN | REMOVING FROM BEST IDEA LIST - 20160520 PositionMonitor

removing from best idea list; less conviction 

We are removing athenahealth (ATHN) from our Best Idea List, but staying long in the Position Monitor.  The recent CFO and other high-level employee departures, combined with negative anecdotes related to the Streamlined rollout and what looks like an early slowdown in our tracker reduces our conviction over the intermediate term.  Over the long-term, we continue to believe athenahealth is well positioned to take share in ambulatory and the recently entered inpatient market.  What will get us out of the position completely, and possibly pivot short, is if the athena-Tracker continues to slow over an extended period.  

 

The other high-level employee departures include Senior Financial Officer, Parth Mehrotra, who left in March 2016 for a COO position at Brighton Health Group and Director of Enterprise Sales, Ian Ha, who left in December 2015 for a similar role at Flatiron Health.  We suspect that the Florida Cancer chargeback was related to Ian Ha's departure, as Florida Cancer currently uses Flatiron for their Oncology EMR solution.

streamlined concerns; NPS worse before it gets better

We are becoming increasingly concerned about the disruption that the Streamlined rollout is having on users. We have observed a growing outcry of dissatisfaction both from our outreach using the tracker data, and through various social media and software review websites.  We also witnessed several users discussing their dissatisfaction with Streamlined at the New England HIMSS conference earlier this month.  The reviews are fairly consistent, complaining about "too-many clicks", poor workflow design and lack of responsiveness from account managers, with some even comparing the new EMR to Allscripts.  While we understand that docs don't like change, we would be remiss to ignore the negative and potentially lasting impact this type of disruption can have in such a highly referential industry. As a result, we expect the Net Promoter Score (NPS) to get worse before it gets better and continue to be a headwind to small and group bookings as the Streamlined rollout continues through year-end. 

 

ATHN | REMOVING FROM BEST IDEA LIST - 20160520 Streamlined Reviews 

cfo departure is for the best; repairing damage to culture

While it is never a good sign to see a CFO leave, in this situation, we believe it is for the right reasons and a net positive for the company. As we had expected, the departure was the result of Jonathan Bush needing to step back in as the direct report to oversee and manage the culture, which had been changing for the worse under Kristi Matus's leadership and the dual CFAO role.  The management change is in response to employee comments, such as those on glassdoor.com, as well as a struggle to balance rapid growth and maintain the important employee culture.  This is an issue they have been dealing with for some time and a decision that was not made in haste, but came to in a mutual realization recently (Jonathan Bush/Board and Kristi Matus) that they needed to separate roles and Jonathan Bush, CEO, needed to step back in.  As there was not another suitable EVP level position available, Kristi Matus decided it was best to leave for other opportunities.  

 

Karl Stubelis, CFO and previously Controller for 3-years, reiterated 2016 guidance, and both he and Jonathan Bush emphasized that Kristi Matus's departure was not due to financial or accounting misconduct. 

 

ATHN | REMOVING FROM BEST IDEA LIST - 20160520 Glassdor

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Thomas Tobin
Managing Director 

@HedgeyeHC

 

Andrew Freedman

Analyst

@HedgeyeHIT 


McCullough: If You Don’t Do Macro, Macro Will Do You

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question about whether he thinks there will be a “20% or more” drawdown in the S&P 500 from here. Spoiler Alert: He does.


Early Look

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