Clinton's Latest Attack On 'The King Of Debt'

Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email


Clinton's Latest Attack On 'The King Of Debt' - hillary lates


With Bernie Sanders' victory in WVA last night, Hillary Clinton is looking to run the clock out this month - without attracting further damage to her general election chances.  We've said before that the May primary calendar favors Sanders, but with the Republican field cleared and Donald Trump the presumptive nominee Clinton is unexpectedly (and unpreparedly?) finding herself under attack by him as well as Sanders - precisely at the time when she needs to unite the Democrats. Sanders is poised to win in OR next Tuesday and Clinton is now refocusing her attention on KY (also next Tues) where the coal comments that cost her WVA - which she won in a landslide in 2008 -  are now cutting into her support there.



The Clinton campaign floated a new attack on Trump, painting the billionaire as a heartless tycoon. No doubt this attack is an attempt to convince the "Never Hillary" Democrats, who feel Trump may provide the shakeup they so desperately want from Bernie, that Trump is less Bernie-like than Hillary. The jury is still out on whether this new approach will actually work to bring Bernie Democrats back into the fold (or backfire a-la-Goldman-speeches).


Clinton's Latest Attack On 'The King Of Debt' - make america


Trump continued to blast past criticisms that his tax plan would raise the national debt by $45 trillion over 20 years and provide $3.2 trillion in tax breaks to millionaires, emphasizing that everyone would get tax breaks. He suggested he would increase taxes on the wealthy, but then said they would "pay less than they pay now" and then "On my plan they're going down. But by the time it's negotiated, they'll go up," which definitely cleared things up.  Ahem.  


He also reiterated his title as "King of Debt," with comments suggesting a Trump Administration might not fully honor Treasury Department bonds. Never one to create confusion, Trump clarified to, "I understand debt better than probably anybody. I know how to deal with debt very well. I love debt -- but you know, debt is tricky and it's dangerous, and you have to be careful and you have to know what you're doing." We're sure global markets are breathing a sigh of relief for the clarification.

A Brief Update On Earnings Season & Sector Performance

Takeaway: As Macy's (M) & Disney (DIS) missed earnings numbers and shares implode this morning, here's a critical update on earnings season.

A Brief Update On Earnings Season & Sector Performance - Earnings cartoon 11.03.2015


A grand total of 446 of 500 S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, aggregate sales and earnings growth is down -2.4% and -8.5% respectively.


A few callouts:


  • 6 of 10 sectors have reported negative sales and earnings growth;
  • Energy leads the laggards, with sales and earnings plummeting -31.6% and -108.7% respectively;
  • Financials & Materials earnings growth is down -14.3% and -15.1% respectively;


A Brief Update On Earnings Season & Sector Performance - earnings season 5 11


Meanwhile, looking at sector Performance:


  • Our Macro team's favorite long sector of 2016, Utilities (XLU), continues to outperform, 13.1%;
  • Our favorite short, Financials (XLF), is down -2.3% and is the second worst performing sector;
  • Other callouts: Healthcare (XLV) is having a rough 2016 and Energy (XLE), which had a rough start to the year, is the second best performing sector. 


A Brief Update On Earnings Season & Sector Performance - sector performance 5 11

Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products




Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - equity markets 5 11


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - sector performance 5 11


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - volume 5 11


Daily Market Data Dump: Wednesday - rates and spreads 5 11

Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

A #LateCycle Reality Check Hits Disney, Macy's, China, Italy, etc...

Takeaway: Recent stumbles in Disney shares, Italy's bank-heavy FTSE MIB index, and China's Hang Seng index are prime examples of #GrowthSlowing.

A #LateCycle Reality Check Hits Disney, Macy's, China, Italy, etc... - late cycle cartoon 10.08.2015


It's getting tougher each day for deniers of #LateCycle reality.


"I wonder if Disney missing for the 1st time in 5yrs has anything to do with #TheCycle (it continues to slow)," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in a note to subscribers this morning.


Even chart chasers can digest the massive rally in Disney (DIS) shares followed by the abrupt flatlining. Note: DIS is down more than -10% from it's August 2015 peak.



By the way...


It's going to be a rough #LateCycle reality check for Macy's (M) investors this morning. The retailer printed lackluster earnings eerily reminiscent of the last cycle's rollover. (It has also already nosedived from its July 2015 peak – it's down almost -50% since then.)



It's happening around the world...


Check out European economic data:



And Italy's banking-heavy FTSE MIB leads the losers today. 


Thanks NIRP!



(For more, read the FT's piece about the German regulator who called NIRP a "seeping poison." Or Spain's 50-year Long Bond issuance as growth continues to slow.)



Rouding out the morning's #GrowthSlowing flops is China's Hang Seng:



Meanwhile, there's always a bull market somewhere...


CHART OF THE DAY: A Look At The Peak In S&P 500 P/E

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"... Unless we’re going to go all-in #bubble multiple speak (Bernstein slapped a $1000 price target on AMZN yesterday), as you can see here in our Chart of The Day, forward SP500 P/E multiples already peaked (right on time) last year too."


CHART OF THE DAY: A Look At The Peak In S&P 500 P/E - 05.11.16 EL Chart

Cartoon of the Day: Dead On Arrival

Cartoon of the Day: Dead On Arrival - earnings season cartoon 05.10.2016


A brief update on earnings season:

  1. 441 of 500 S&P 500 companies have reported their Q1 2016 numbers
  2. Aggregate SALES growth is DOWN -2.4% year-over-year
  3. Aggregate EARNINGS growth is DOWN -8.9% year-over-year
  4. Ex-Energy (EPS -109% y/y), Financials have EARNINGS DOWN -14.3% year-over-year
  5. Ex-Energy, Technology has EARNINGS DOWN -8.4% year-over-year 

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.