QUESTION FOR YOU ... What's changed?
That may be the most important question to ask yourself right now. Here's the answer. Nothing. Nothing has changed. And that's why we're holding the line on our bearish thesis.
It was our non-consensus call heading into 2016 ... and we continue to flag the risk that U.S. economic growth continues its slide from 3% to 2% to 1%. Meanwhile, corporate profits continue to contract and are on pace for the third consecutive quarter of declines. (Click here for an update on Q1 earnings.)
More on macro markets this morning via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers. Take a look at Copper:
"One of the many proxies to pay attention to right now on the “reflation” hope vs. the #Deflation TREND - -0.25% this am after failing to breakout above its MAR high; $2.31/lb Copper and $46 WTI are big resistance levels for me."
meanwhile, over to Europe...
After a reading of German business sentiment failed to meet expectations, Euro-zone permabulls continue to be battered by these ugly economic realities:
That's why countries like Italy remain in crash mode.
heading over to Asia...
Here's the Shanghai Comp Casino today:
... And Japan:
So, what should you own? As McCullough noted on The Macro Show today, Long Bonds (TLT, ZROZ, EDV) are "the most obvious position you should have" on U.S. growth slowing. Here's McCullough's incremental Monday morning update:
"Was it a bad week for Long Bond Bulls or the last big buying opportunity of Q2? I say buyem (again) – and buy anything that looks like a safe yield (XLU, EDV, ZROZ) with the 10yr tapping the top-end of a 1.70-1.90% immediate-term risk range."