• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Below is a brief excerpt from our Potomac Research Group colleague and Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

RYAN THE REDEEMER?

President Paul Ryan? ... Plus, Donald Trump's Worst Week Ever - paul ryan 2

Washington gossipmongers are out in full force - speculating on a calculated bid for the presidency by Speaker Paul Ryan. Ryan would certainly be a formidable opponent to the Democratic candidate in the fall, but jockeying for the top spot isn't high on his list.

It's not Ryan's style to upend a political process, and we believe that if this scenario were to come to fruition, it would be similar to the path he walked to the speakership. Currently, there aren't many qualified, well-vetted alternatives who could be a unifying force besides Ryan - leading us to believe that if an open convention occurs and multiple ballots ensue, he could be the chosen one.

TEFLON ... GONE?!

President Paul Ryan? ... Plus, Donald Trump's Worst Week Ever - trump 787

Many have labeled last week as Donald Trump's worst yet - and that charge may be validated if he loses today's primary in WI. The Badger state was Trump's to lose given the similar dynamics to other victories he's notched - one with many blue-collar Democrats and disaffected voters, that also allows independents to vote. Although Trump is trailing Ted Cruz by a small margin, it's becoming clear that his antics are not serving him well with WI Republicans - in particular Republican women.

The combination of his comments on abortion, shaming of Heidi Cruz on Twitter, foreign policy missteps, the Lewandowski incident - the list goes on - have led us to believe that he is no longer the "Teflon Donald." Trump is likely to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory tonight - exposing weaknesses in his campaign and a failure to make the pivot to acting more presidential. 

WE THE PEOPLE?

We believe that no matter the outcome, Trump and Sanders' impact on the presidential election process will be felt for years to come. Both candidates have exposed the grip the establishment has on our system. On the Democratic side we have the superdelegate system designed to prevent anti-establishment, iconoclastic candidates from winning the nomination.

On the Republican side, we are witnessing the very beginning of backroom deals for delegates - in a collaborative effort to block Trump from the nomination. The voters are becoming aware of this flawed system where the election may indeed slip away from the people, and transforming into one controlled by party leaders - we think calls for the eventual dissolution of the superdelegate system and restructuring of the delegate selection process are not far behind.