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Investing Ideas Newsletter

Takeaway: Current Investing Ideas: HBI, LAZ, MDRX, FL, NUS, JNK, TIF, WAB, ZBH, CME, ZROZ, XLU, MCD, GIS, TLT

Investing Ideas Newsletter - Yellen cartoon 03.31.2016

 

Below are our analysts’ new updates on our fifteen current high conviction long and short ideas. As a reminder, if nothing material has changed in the past week which would affect a particular idea, our analyst has noted this. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s updated levels for each ticker are below.

 

Please note that removed Restoration Hardware (RH) from the long side of Investing Ideas this week. We also added Hanes Brands (HBI) to the short side and CME Group (CME) to the long side. Retail Sector head Brian McGough and Financials analyst Jonathan Casteleyn will send out full stock reports next week. We will send CEO Keith McCullough’s updated levels for each ticker in a separate email.

IDEAS UPDATES

TLT | XLU | ZROZ | JNK

To view our analyst's original report on Junk Bonds click here, here for Utilities and here for Pimco 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury ETF.

 

You might have heard on the radio while driving into work Friday that “the jobs market is good.” Non-Farm payroll additions came in over +200 again (+215K to be exact) and private sector wage growth was also “good,” increasing +4.2% Y/Y. But as we continue to reiterate, absolutes like “good” and “bad” are outside the Hedgeye vocabulary. We’re most concerned with "better" or "worse" from a rate of change perspective.

 

Our translation of the “jobs market is good” commentary? The non-farm payroll number was is "less good" (i.e. "worse") from a Y/Y rate-of-change perspective.

 

Growth in non-farm payrolls peaked in February 2015 at +2.3% Y/Y and the trend since then has been one of decline (+2.0% Y/Y for March 2016):

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - 04.01.16 NFP Growth

 

If there was something “good” about the jobs report, it was embedded in the salary & wage growth numbers which accelerated on a Y/Y % change basis vs. February, right?

 

While accelerations are good, one data point does not make a trend. In reality, private sector salary and wage growth peaked on a Y/Y % change basis in December of 2014. So, yes "good" but again we’re still well passed peak. 

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - 04.01.16 Wage Growth

 

From a process perspective, the goal is to get the longer-term trends of growth and inflation correct. On that front, inflation-adjusted growth is like a sine curve that goes through cycles of peaks and troughs, and we use every relevant data-series as an additive to predicting where we are in this endless sine curve: 

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - 04.01.16 Sin Curve

 

So how does all of this filter down into our Investing Ideas?

 

Along with a myriad of other economic data points, the two labor market charts referenced above from Friday’s late-cycle non-farm payrolls report continue to roll over. That's why you stay bullish on Long Bonds (TLT and ZROZ), Utilities (XLU) and short Junk Bonds (JNK). We expect more alpha after what was a great Q1, as the back-end of the Treasury curve continues to get flatter regardless of Fed rate hikes. We were alone in that camp, in December, when we first told you that a rate hike was in fact good for long-duration Treasury bonds. Stick with what's worked.

 

Here's the Q1 2016 Scorecard (data through 3/31):

  • TLT +8.3%
  • XLU +14.7%
  • JNK +1.0%
  • versus S&P 500 +0.7%

MDRX

To view our analyst's original report on Allscripts click here

 

Allscripts (MDRX) press releases announced two deals this week:

 

  1. A contract renewal and expansion with University Hospitals; and
  2. A dbMotion win at Salford Royal in the U.K.  

 

With respect to the UH deal and the impact on 1Q16 bookings, we would note that Allscripts does not include renewals in reported bookings and the bulk of incremental revenue ($3-6 million) associated with the 5 Sunrise Hospital installations will likely flow through maintenance and therefore also not be reflected in reported bookings. One of the hospitals has over 300 beds, but the rest are small, under 150 bed facilities (~900 beds total). However, Allscripts will lose 2x the number of beds in 2017 between the loss of Summa Health and Barnes Jewish when these facilities switch over to Epic in 2017.

 

Below are our key takeaways from our conversations with Allscripts' customers:

 

University Hospitals

  • Rolling out the core Sunrise suite to 5 hospitals UH acquired in the last two-years. One of the hospitals has over 300 beds, but the rest are small, under 150 bed facilities (~900 beds total). 
  • Renewed and expanded existing contract to include additional inpatient modules for surgery and radiology.
  • Allscripts was generous in the pricing of both the existing and expanded portions of the contract renewal.
  • CEO of University Hospitals has a strong relationship with Allscripts.
  • UH does not use Allscripts for hosting services and in a limited capacity for implementation services. 
  • Physicians happy with Sunrise.  Touchworks is an issue, but no plans on changing.

Barnabas Health/RWJ

  • Cerner will likely replace Allscripts at RWJ facilities when EHR contracts expire in 2020. However, they will consider all alternatives at that time.
  • RWJ embedded with Allscripts and the physicians are happy with Sunrise, although they have devoted substantial internal resources to integrating Touchworks.
  • It is highly probable that Barnabas will purchase dbMotion as a short-term solution to normalize data exchange with RWJ (similar to Baylor, Scott & White).
  • Looking to optimize revenue cycle in 2017 and consolidate vendors.  Will keep all options open and consider athenahealth.
  • Will likely go the HealtheIntent route for population health as you get the most value out of a system that is integrated with your EHR.

WAB

To view our analyst's original report on Wabtec click here

 

We think the rally back in shares of resource-related capital equipment companies, like Wabtec (WAB), has provided an opportunity to sell or enter a short. We expect rail capital spending to turn down given fleet demographics and rail volume trends. We still expect to earn well less than $4 per share in 2016, with a weaker second half of the year.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - wab table 

NUS

To view our analyst's original report on Nu Skin click here

 

Hedgeye Managing Director Howard Penney has no update on Nu Skin (NUS) this week but reiterates his short call on the company. 

TIF

To view our analyst's original report on Tiffany click here

 

Tiffany (TIF) has rallied over the past month and a half along with most of retail. The Retail (XRT) is up 20% from its trough in mid February, and TIF has traded alongside. The company is up 21% since then. At the same time, TIF earnings expectations have continued to head downward. The stock is now trading over 19x 2016 consensus EPS numbers that we still think are too high.

 

Ultimately, we estimate that earnings growth will continue to underperform those lofty expectations and the premium P/E multiple will be at risk.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - tif chart

LAZ

To view our analyst's original report on Lazard click here.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - lazard

 

Financials analyst Jonathan Casteleyn has no update on Lazard (LAZ) this week but reiterates his short call. Below are the key takeaways from Casteleyn's original stock report:

  • "Our main contention is that Wall Street is ignoring warnings signs of a high-water mark in M&A, including rising private equity participation levels and also all-time highs in consideration value. Both metrics last peaked in 2007."

  • "In addition, the constant rise of corporate credit costs from mid-2015 to current day has widely referenced Moody's indices higher by over 100 basis points. Our research shows that a move of this magnitude has historically impacted M&A by -20% on an annual basis."
  • Meanwhile, Lazard is riding a wave of new, successful Emerging Market product offerings. "The firm's EM exposure is understated and we estimate it is 55% of assets-under-management, and not the stated 30%." Also, "Lazard Asset Management has never sidestepped an EM melt-down, experiencing both negative growth and also market depreciation."
  • "The Street currently is at $2.78 billion in top-line for 2017 on EPS of $4.01 with '18 at $2.82 billion and $4.40."
  • "Our base case estimate is the stock is worth $30 per share on 10x our $3 EPS estimate for '16. Meanwhile, our bear case if M&A activity rolls over by -20%, is a $22 stock at $2.20 in earnings at a 10x multiple."

MCD

To view our analyst's original report on McDonald's click here

 

McDonald's (MCD) hit an all-time high this week. "They can't chase Energy Charts today, so they're just dog-piling into our long calls on GIS and MCD," wrote Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on Friday. 

 

We've said it before, McDonald's has all the style factors that we like during these turbulent macro market times; high market cap, low beta and liquidity. The stock is up 7.5% this year beating the S&P 500 by more than 600 bps. In August 2015, Restaurants analyst Howard Penney wrote that "2015 will be the last time this stock is below $100."

 

A prescient call. Stick with it.

ZBH

To view our analyst's original report on Zimmer Biomet click here. 

 

Growth in the US medical economy remains strong through March 2015 based on both healthcare and hospital employment as well as the job openings data. To date, we have not yet seen the #ACATaper in full force, although there are clear signs of slowing. This week, we saw a study from Blue Cross Blue Shield which makes us more convinced it's coming.  

 

The study details the massive difference in medical consumption between ACA enrollees and other plan enrollees.

 

Within the Obamacare population, inpatient and outpatient visits were north of 80% higher per person. We expect that increase to mean revert as these chronically uninsured people get the care they need and drop back to the insured baseline. And since knee replacement surgery was 6-fold higher among these newly insured, this will be a problem for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) when it does.

FL 

To view our analyst's original report on Foot Locker click here.

 

In Foot Locker's (FL) 10K, the company disclosed that the percent of its purchases from Nike went DOWN in 2015 to 72% from 73% a year earlier. A whopping 1%, you say? Does this REALLY matter? Yes. It does. And here’s why…

 

  1. The share gain for Nike from 50% to 73% has been the primary driver of FL’s gravity-defying earnings recovery. Nothing that Foot Locker sells drives more traffic and boosts ASP more than something with a Swoosh on it.
  2. We think that Nike will add $10bn in online sales by 2020, and that’s off a base of $32bn. By our calculations, Brick&Mortar sales are likely to be down every year – unless industry sales growth can be in excess of 6% (and that only happens when we’re at the peak of a cycle). Let’s also keep in mind that Nike isn't the only company shifting online.
  3. At the same time, Nike’s percentage showed that 73% is likely the ceiling at Foot Locker, we actually saw FL’s Footwear Ratio go up 300bp to 82%. So it sold more footwear, but less of it was Nike (thank you Steph Curry/UA)
  4. FL bulls might argue that the company still comped well with less Nike going through the pipe. Yes, that’s true. But in the US, FL comps last year went from ‘low DD’ in ’14 to ‘high singles’ in ’15. We’ll call that a 300-500bp slowdown in comps, with just  100bp less in Nike product as a percent of the total. What happens if (when) the Nike ratio goes down to a healthier (but still unhealthy) 60%? FL comps are solidly negative in that scenario – there’s really no way around it. 

 

Bottom Line: With no square footage growth, peak gross margins, higher investment in SG&A and capex to compete against its vendors, this could easily cost FL 1,000bp in RNOA, $2-$3 in EPS, and 40% of its market cap.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - FL 3 31 2016 chart1

GIS

Joining McDonald's, General Mills (GIS) also hit an all-time high this week.

 

We continue to like GIS as one of the best large cap names in the packaged food space. With that being said, the third quarter was not without some noise around the numbers. Just look at the Green Giant divestiture, Walmart clean store policies, foreign currency exchange, and grain merchandising to name a few things that muddied the waters.

 

But after filtering out the noise, this is a business that is truly turning a corner. When fiscal year 2016 began last June, we knew this was not going to be an easy ship to turn towards success.

 

Now, many key product platforms are turning (through strong product innovation and renovation) in the right direction and operational improvements implemented through cost savings initiatives, GIS is on the cusp of success. We will be measuring this success and expect GIS to realize sustained top line growth in the low single digit range.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - gis 


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 4th of April through the 8th of April is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The Week Ahead - 04.01.16 Week Ahead


Cartoon of the Day: Happy April Fools' Day

Cartoon of the Day: Happy April Fools' Day - April foo cartoon 04.01.2016

 

See today's supposedly "bullish" non-farm payroll numbers? Nothing to celebrate. "Remember, whatever the bulls want to characterize as "good" news now = #Fed rate hike," says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. 

 

On a related note, we've got big news.


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Godot's Cycle | A Few Quick Points on March NFP

Those waiting for an inflection to Trend acceleration in domestic growth have been waiting for 9-months and will be watching the economic paint dry for a long while still.  Those looking for an imminent, acute collapse in activity and a Saturday recession will be similarly disappointed.      

 

Since 1K labor review notes have already hit your inbox and because my proclivity for brevity has become an increasing function of my age, # of kids, and proximity to the weekend, let’s go with the bullet-point set of tangible takeaway:

 

  • Sequential ↑, Trend ↓ | The March Employment data was good but not good enough.  Given the easiest comp in years (Last March = +84K) we knew we’d get a sequential, rate-of-change acceleration in employment growth.  The Trend, however, remains one of deceleration off the RoC peak of +2.28% YoY recorded in February 2015. 
  • Bro, Don’t be So Bro-Cyclical About It! Peak rate-of-change in employment growth doesn’t herald an imminent recession.  Over the last three cycles, on average, the expansion lasted 24-months after reaching peak employment growth.  Notably, however, the cycle consistently plays itself out after cresting.  In other words, we don’t roll off peak growth then re-breach it to the upside. 
  • Comps:  With 2Q16 comps being the hardest of the cycle, the trend toward deceleration won’t abate over the nearer-term.   Reported 1Q earnings will remain dismal and the slope of the line across most growth metrics will remain negative in 2Q.
  • Labor ↑, Profits ↓:  To the extent demand & output continue to decelerate, healthy employment gains effectively equates to (further) lower productivity and margin pressure for businesses.   The combination of rising labor costs and declining demand/profitability can only persist so long until it feeds back negatively on hiring and capex decisions. 
  • Income:  With growth in aggregate hours rising and wage growth accelerating modestly, aggregate income growth should reflect modest acceleration when the official March data are reported later this month.  If the savings rate retreats off the highs of recent months, consumption growth should see similar improvement.  Like the employment dynamics highlighted above, this would represent a sequential improvement inside a larger trend towards deceleration. 
  • The Cycle | We’ll review this in fuller detail on our 2Q16 Macro Themes call on Thursday but the following fundamental macro metric flow sufficiently captures the broader reality:
    • 4Q14: Income Growth, Corporate Profits and SPX Margins Peak --> 1Q15: Employment Growth peaks --> 1H15: Consumption Growth & Confidence Peak--> 3Q15: Equities Peak  ……So, not some mystical transcendental function, it’s simply the cycle playing out largely as a commonsense expectation of it would suggest.   
  • Good = Bad:  Perceived good news =  ↑rate hike risk = $USD ↑ = equities/commodities/everything-reflation ↓.  Correlations, of course, build and decay but nearer-term inverse correlations to the dollar remain strong at present.   
  • Quad #3/4:  As it stands currently, we’re walking the edge of stagflation’s blade.  Rising inflation + Slowing Employment Growth classically characterizes the late-cycle.  If, however, wage inflation fails to materialize alongside the rise in broader inflation (driven by excess price growth in key consumer cost centers of housing/healthcare) and consumption/income continue to slow then stagflation risk starts to percolate more tangibly.  Neither scenario  - late cycle and/or stagflation -  is particularly supportive of pro-growth positioning.  

A visual tour of the data is below.  Enjoy the weekend.

 

Godot's Cycle | A Few Quick Points on March NFP - Empl Summary table

 

Godot's Cycle | A Few Quick Points on March NFP - NFP YoY

 

Godot's Cycle | A Few Quick Points on March NFP - NFP vs Earnings

 

Godot's Cycle | A Few Quick Points on March NFP - Impled Income Growth

 

Godot's Cycle | A Few Quick Points on March NFP - Tech vs Energy

 

Godot's Cycle | A Few Quick Points on March NFP - EP

 

Godot's Cycle | A Few Quick Points on March NFP - LFPR

 

Godot's Cycle | A Few Quick Points on March NFP - Labor Share

 

Godot's Cycle | A Few Quick Points on March NFP - Prof Donw

 

 

Christian B. Drake

@HedgeyeUSA

 


McCullough: Is The Fed Dumb Enough To Hike On Today’s Jobs Report?

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discussed how the Fed will interpret today’s late cycle non-farm payroll numbers and its implications for investors.


What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation?

***Below is today's summary of our internal analysis of recent key economic and policy developments emanating from economies in the aforementioned regions. We thought the summary might be helpful as you ponder the sustainability of this epic short-squeeze in global reflation assets.***

 

In China, the latest batch of high-frequency growth data point to near-term economic stabilization. In conjunction with reduced capital outflow pressures, greater transparency and recent CNY strength, it’s safe to say the bearish yuan overhang has been lifted – for now, at least. We expect that negative catalyst to resume here in Q2, however, as the USD should start to rise amid heightened risk aversion per our #Quad4 forecast for the U.S. economy. This is all part of our expected path for Chinese economic growth and the RMB (i.e. “walking down the stairs” vs. the consensus view of an inevitable crash).

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - China

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - UNITED STATES

 

In Japan, the sour 1Q Tankan Survey, terrible MAR Manufacturing PMI report and declining stock prices all call attention to the efficacy and limits of BoJ monetary policy. This has shifted the Japanese policy debate to the fiscal arena and it would appear that Abe is readying yet another [ineffective] supplementary budget amid his call for other G7 economies to dive into the expansionary fiscal policy pool with him. The frequency with which DM policymakers are acting to spur growth is increasing as the impact of marginal stimulus wanes and demographic headwinds gather steam.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Japan

 

In India, quiet week in terms of economic releases but sequential downticks in both growth and inflation readings of late have perpetuated expectations of dovish monetary policy out of the RBI, which has been a boon to Indian capital markets and the INR of late. That said, however, we do not view the aforementioned market deltas as sustainable amid another bout of global risk aversion – which is something we anticipate here in Q2.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - India

 

In South Korea, the preponderance of the latest batch of high-frequency growth and inflation data implies a #Quad1 outcome – as do trends across key metrics. That in conjunction with South Korea’s low score within our proprietary EM Crisis Risk Index affords us scope to remain favorably disposed to South Korean capital markets and the KRW.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - South Korea

 

In Australia, the latest batch of high-frequency growth data came in mixed, while the political situation has taken a decided turn for the worse – at least in units of investor uncertainty. We don’t have an explicit view on the outlook for Australian capital markets, but we do believe the AUD is grossly overbought in the context of what we continue to view as an unsustainable global reflation rally nearing its eventual end.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Australia

 

In Taiwan, economic growth appears to have stabilized per the MAR Manufacturing PMI report and trends across the preponderance of key high-frequency growth data. That in conjunction with inflation that is now accelerating on a sequential and trending basis would seem to support the TWD – if not on an absolute basis, then certainly on a relative basis to other EMEs – amid the next round of global dollar tightening, which itself should occur here in Q2.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Taiwan

 

In Indonesia, the latest batch of high-frequency growth and inflation data was generally positive, on the margin, but we strongly caution against chasing those deltas with increased allocations to Indonesian capital markets or via the IDR. Recall that Indonesia scored most poorly within our proprietary EM Crisis Risk Index, which itself underscores our bearish bias on Indonesia over the intermediate-to-long term.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Indonesia

 

In Thailand, the latest batch of high-frequency growth and inflation data came in decidedly mixed, highlighted by the contrast between decelerating BSI (FEB) and accelerating Export growth (MAR). Per Thailand’s low score in our proprietary EM Crisis Risk Index, we remain favorably disposed to the country with respect to the intermediate-to-long term.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Thailand

 

In Brazil, the latest batch of high-frequency growth data is generally confirmatory of two of the four reasons we think Brazilian capital markets and the BRL are currently priced to perfection: 1) growth contracted at a slower rate and 2) inflation inflected from a persistent trend of acceleration. That in conjunction with 3) the removal of the bearish CNY overhang and 4) consensus speculation that a post-Rousseff administration led by Michel Temer or Aecio Neves will implement much-needed fiscal and economic reforms (which may lend scope to BCB to ease) has value investors backing up the truck here. We think such actors are setting themselves up to be largely disappointed over the intermediate-to-long term as the path and pace of reform falls well shy of investor expectations amid a looming bankruptcy cycle in Brazil. Refer to Brazil’s elevated score in our proprietary EM Crisis Risk Index for more details.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Brazil

 

In Mexico, growth continues to slow on a trending basis. Much like in Indonesia, we find it imprudent for real money investors to chase the recent solid performance of Mexican capital markets and the MXN – the both of which benefited from what we continue to view as an unsustainable global reflation rally. Like its Latin American neighbor Brazil, Mexico scores poorly on our proprietary EM Crisis Risk Index, which underscores our intermediate-to-long-term bearish bias on the country.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Mexico

 

In Russia, both the RUB and Russian capital markets are starting to break down amid what may be the first signs of the resurgence of global dollar tightening here in Q2. Russia screens fairly poorly on our proprietary EM Crisis Risk Index, but not nearly as poorly as its oil-producing counterparts in Latin America (namely: Brazil, Mexico and Colombia). As such, we think those looking to re-short commodity-linked EM countries would do better to avoid Russia – which has a substantial degree more political and economic risks priced into its financial markets than its peers.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Russia

 

In South Africa, the latest batch of high-frequency economic data is confirmatory of what we’ve previously identified as the key cyclical risk to South African capital markets – hawkish monetary policy out of the SARB (which we expect to remain ongoing). While that has been a boon to the ZAR, we don’t view its recent gains as sustainable in the context of a the aforementioned global dollar tightening scenario we’ve identified for Q2. Additionally, South Africa scores particularly poorly on our EM Crisis Risk Index, which underscores our intermediate-to-long-term bearish bias on the country.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - South Africa

 

In Turkey, the latest batch of high-frequency economic data would seem to suggest Turkish economic growth is has likely inflected from its positive run ending in 4Q15. While that is certainly not a positive catalyst, we don’t have an explicit bias on Turkish capital markets or the TRY other than our expectation that both continue to trade in line with broader EM asset class beta from here.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Turkey

 

Works Cited:

 

 

Remember 2H14? That is a good summary of #Quad4’s impact on reflation assets. Don't disrespect what falling nominal GDP expectations (amid heightened recession fears nonetheless) might do to the collective risk appetite of investors. The Fed likely cannot opt for QE4 unless stock market declines force their hand. Moreover, there's a lot of time and space between April 1st and the FOMC's June 15th statement (in which they update their S.E.P. and Dot Plot). The April meeting offers no such [potentially bullish] catalyst.

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - U.S. Dollar Index

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - JPM EM FX Index

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Brent Crude Oil

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Barclays High Yield OAS

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Energy

 

What Does Asia, LatAm and EEMEA Have to Say About Global Reflation? - Industrials

 

Best of luck out there risk managing the aforementioned pivot!

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Director


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