• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here


    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Takeaway: What if the dollar falls post-Fed Day? What should you buy on US economic #GrowthSlowing?

What To Watch Ahead Of Hawkish Fed Day - rate hike cartoon 11.17.2015

Remember what happened last time the Fed tightened into a slow-down (DEC)?

"The market expects a relatively hawkish Fed today," writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers this morning:


"Not surprisingly, USD is up (this wk) into the “relatively hawkish” #LateCycle Employment Fed statement – but how much USD (and rates) upside is there? Not much for now, as both the Japanese and European #BeliefSystem of FX devaluation continues to break-down, pressuring USD inasmuch as slowing housing and consumption data does."


So get ready ahead of a hawkish Fed Day:

"Right there with the Financials (XLF -6.0% YTD) as Best Ideas Shorts in 2016 YTD is the Russell 2000 (down -1.6% yesterday to -6.1% YTD) as both are much purer plays on the short side of the US economy slowing than the global one. I know that doesn’t fit the permabull narrative. But it does fit yesterday’s US Retail Sales and Housing (NAHB) data! #slowing."


Which gets us back to what happened after the December rate hike. Well, stocks tumbled and bond yields fell.