Market Insights

03/08/16 11:01 AM EST

Got a U.S. Recession? Profits Do

Takeaway: Only 4 of 10 S&P 500 sectors are showing positive earnings growth. That's very bad for U.S. equities.

Below is a brief update on where we stand in S&P 500 earnings season. 494/500 companies have reported aggregate EPS decline of -7.4% y/y.

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Why does this matter? Check out the chart below from our 1Q Macro Themes deck.

Click to enlarge

Bottom line? Two or more consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth always presages a crash in stocks.

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