Got a U.S. Recession? Profits Do

Takeaway: Only 4 of 10 S&P 500 sectors are showing positive earnings growth. That's very bad for U.S. equities.

Below is a brief update on where we stand in S&P 500 earnings season. 494/500 companies have reported aggregate EPS decline of -7.4% y/y.

 

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Got a U.S. Recession? Profits Do - s p 500 earnings

 

Why does this matter? Check out the chart below from our 1Q Macro Themes deck.

 

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Got a U.S. Recession? Profits Do - EL profits

 

Bottom line? Two or more consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth always presages a crash in stocks.