Our Macro team continues to highlight the increasing likelihood that the U.S. slips into recession sometime in the next three quarters. The Fed, Wall Street economists and most investors are missing the mark on this risk.
Below are four cartoons from our cartoonist Bob Rich compiled since we started warning subscribers about this risk late last year, accompanied by analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough .
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1. Ebenezer Screwed (12/24/2015)
"Given that they called neither the cycle peaking nor #GrowthSlowing to begin with, Consensus Macro seems to be unbelievably precise in telling you what the “probability of a US recession” is."
2. Recessionary Rumblings (12/22/2015)
"Those growth bulls were delivered a big blow this week with US Consumer Confidence making a lower-low at 92.2."
3. Recession Risk Rising (2/4/2016)
"Calculating a precise percentage “chance of a recession” is poppycock. What matters to markets and your returns are expectations and rates of change."
4. Recession Knocking? (2/22/2016)
"As critical rates of change continue to slow (see Consumer Confidence, Corporate profits, Jobless Claims), the probability of a US #Recession continues to rise."