• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

Client Talking Points

JAPAN

Breaking bad, the belief system is here – Japan says “negative yields” (and they got them – 10YR JGB -0.04% now), but they didn’t get Down Yen, Up Nikkei – they got Up Yen, Crashing Nikkei! (Nikkei -5.4% overnight, -22.8% since July).

ITALY

If you thought the central planning experiment in the U.S. and Japan went bad, look at what Draghi is doing to the banks in Europe. Italy’s stock market is down another -1.5% this morning taking it’s crash (since July) to -32.8% (if the SPX crashed that % it would be at 1,436 FYI).

FINANCIALS

We shifted our favorite S&P Sector short from Energy to the Financials on JAN 5th and the main reason for that was our uber bullish call on the Long Bond (calling for all-time low in UST 10YR Yield) and Financials being the most over-owned group relative to its rate risk. The XLF is now -14.3% vs. Utes (XLU) +7.2% year-to-date.

 

*Tune into The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough live in the studio at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE

Asset Allocation

CASH 64% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 24% INTL CURRENCIES 12%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
XLU

The bond market understands #GrowthSlowing. So do Utilities (XLU), which is why XLU is leading S&P sub-sector performance in 2016. XLU is up +7.6% versus down -8.0% for the S&P 500. Stick with it on the long side.  

GIS

GIS remains one of analyst Howard Penney's top Long ideas in the Consumer Staples space. As we have continued to say, it boasts style factors ideal in turbulent times; high market cap, low beta and liquidity. While GIS is down year-to-date, it's held up very well against the broader stock market. GIS is down -4% versus down -8% for the S&P 500 in 2016.

 

GIS has been picking up steam, as the company is working to improve merchandising and advertising on core business. One of the initiatives is making a distinct effort to delve deeper into the natural and organic category. That will certainly help them a lot in the long run. More to come.

TLT

Down go growth expectations and down goes the yield curve. That's the latest from Macro markets last week and it plays right into our long Long-Term Treasuries (TLT) and short Junk Bonds (JNK) Investing Ideas.

 

The UST 10YR Yield declined another -9 basis points last week which helped boost TLT +1.1% on the week. In a healthy environment, bonds as an asset class go up in tandem, but JNK lost -0.9% on the week despite a falling yield curve. That’s because we’re NOT in an “all is good” environment. Credit spreads widen in turbulent times. This widening is the alpha-generating opportunity in long TLT, short JNK.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

VIDEO FLASHBACK: 4 Videos With Keith McCullough On Our Economic Outlook & Long Bond Call https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/49025-video-flashback-4-videos-with-keith-mccullough-on-our-economic-outloo… via @hedgeye

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Not appreciating what we have now robs us of our abundance even when it exists.

Marshall Sylver                                     

STAT OF THE DAY

Anheuser-Busch Inbev has spent $278.3 million on Super Bowl ads over the past decade, according to Kantar Media.