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INVITE | 1Q16 Internet Best Ideas Call (TODAY)

Takeaway: Please join us for our today at 1:00pm EST. Dialing instructions below

We will be hosting our quarterly INTERNET BEST IDEAS Update Call today at 1pm EST.  We will be reviewing the major themes and incremental developments to our Best Idea Short theses (YELP, TWTR), and will be discussing two recently-closed Best Ideas that we have added to our Bench in the opposite direction (LNKD as a potential Short, P as a potential Long).  The emphasis of this call will be to outline our view over various durations (particularly 2016) as well as the upcoming catalyst calendar; identifying the major catalysts and risks to each company over the near-to-intermediate term.

 

Join us for our call today at 1:00pm EST.  Dialing instructions below

 

 

KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE

  • TWTR: Aggressive monetization tactics creating structural headwinds; why there is at least one more leg down to the short.
  • YELP: Sell-side refuses to acknowledge its attrition, so estimates still too high.  Question if mgmt will repeat 2015 mistake and guide to them
  • LNKD: Closed Long, Potential Short.  Selling environment appears to be deteriorating, could be beginning of challenging trend
  • P: Covered Short, Potential Long.  Dead money or Call Option? Depends on how mgmt chooses to proceed post Web IV

 

Participating Dialing Instructions

  • Toll Free:
  • Toll:
  • UK: 0-
  • Confirmation Number: 13629885
  • Materials: CLICK HERE

 

Hesham Shaaban, CFA


@HedgeyeInternet 


The Macro Show Replay | February 4, 2016

 


Why We’re Bearish On U.S. Housing

 

In this excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye analyst Josh Steiner discusses the reasons behind our decision to go from bullish to bearish on the U.S. housing market. He’s joined by U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake.


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

Cartoon of the Day: Volcker To Yellen

Cartoon of the Day: Volcker To Yellen  - Fed Chairmen cartoon 02.03.2016

 

Each Fed chair rises to the occasion.


JT Taylor: 4 Thoughts Heading Into the New Hampshire Primary

Takeaway: New Hampshire and Iowa are very different animals.

Below is a brief excerpt from Potomac Research Group Senior Analyst JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. 

 

JT Taylor: 4 Thoughts Heading Into the New Hampshire Primary - bernie

 

"NEW HAMPSHIRE IS A VERY DIFFERENT ANIMAL, BUT SOME TAKEAWAYS FROM THE IOWA CAUCUS GIVE US CLUES FOR HOW THE NATION'S FIRST PRIMARY MAY PLAY OUT:

 

The Trump spectacle draws large crowds, but he was hurt by an inability to transfer that into committed voters. Cruz by contrast won "the Iowa way" with a new twist, marrying a heavy emphasis on door-to-door campaigning with cutting-edge digital targeting and demographic modeling. Evangelicals made up 64% of Iowa Republicans, and a large portion of the remaining voters classified themselves as very conservative. NH is one of the least religious states in the country and has a large block of libertarian and moderate voters. Fertile ground for Trump and Rubio -- or one of the governors. Not Cruz.

A Trump Ceiling?

Entrance and exit polls from Iowa indicated that higher turnout, especially among new voters, didn't translate into a big Trump boost -- it seems his presence in the race brought out an even share of fans and detractors. This may be indicative of a Trump ceiling among Republican primary voters -- a notion that would be cemented with a similar result in the Granite state. Trump needs a ground game to complement his message in order to win here and beyond.


Bush got burned. Badly

His campaign and Super PAC spent a combined $14.1 million in Iowa on ads alone -- that works out to more than $2,800 per vote for a dismal sixth-place finish. In NH, he'll be hard-pressed to convince voters that he's a better establishment standard-bearer than Rubio, who he just lost to by 20 points...


Sanders is in for the long haul

His campaign announced this week that it had pulled in $20 million in donations in January alone, averaging $27 apiece -- something he repeatedly highlighted in his not-quite-concession speech Monday night. Did we mention that he raised an additional $3 million after that speech? He's vowed to take the fight to Hillary "all the way to the convention."


Why Long Bond Yields Continue To Decline (Despite Fed Hike Rates)

Takeaway: Wait a second... Didn't the Fed hike interest rates?

A lot of people are scratching their heads wondering what the heck is going on with the 10-year Treasury. We're not. In case you missed it, the 10-year yield hit 1.83% earlier today. This ... after declining from 2.27% when the Fed hiked interest rates in December

 

Why Long Bond Yields Continue To Decline (Despite Fed Hike Rates) - rate hike

 

There's a simple explanation.

 

Here's analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:

 

"I don’t want you getting piggy with the 10yr UST at 1.83% - it’s been a great start to the year (long the Long Bond), so book some gains after this epic move towards the all-time lows (in yields) – “expensive” Long Bond gets more expensive as A) Deflation persists B) Growth Slows and C) German 10yr 0.29%, JGB 10yr 0.06%, and Swiss 10yr -0.33%."

 

Our Macro call on this has been spot on. That's why we've been bullish on Long Bonds since we added it to Investing Ideas in August of 2014. Here's how it's performed since then:

 

Why Long Bond Yields Continue To Decline (Despite Fed Hike Rates) - tlt performance

 

We're sticking with Long Bonds. It's been the best contrarian Macro call around especially based on where we think the U.S. economy is headed: #Recession.

 


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