HedgeyeRetail (1/14) | NKE App Exclusives, Holiday Comps

Takeaway: Nike using SNKRS app for exclusive shoe offerings. Holiday comps slow 250bps from 2014.

NKE - Nike's newest release, the Nike Air Pressure 'OG', will be available exclusively via the Nike SNKRS app at $300

 

Between Brand Jordan and Nike, NKE Inc. has 10 releases on the radar for this weekend. But, the most exclusive and highest priced item can only be found on the Nike SNKR app. This is relatively new for Nike, which sold its first shoe exclusively on the Nike SNKR app on 10/31/15. This marks number 2. It makes sense that Nike would slowly test and build the exclusive sneaker release on its own platform. Which is why we see the majority of releases in conjunction with partners. But over time, as Nike builds its ecomm business from $1.2bn to $10bn by 2020, expect to see more exclusive Nike only releases. We have already seen this in the running category where Nike holds its best merch/colorways for its own stores and website. The kicker here over the near term is that everything a consumer could buy at FL, FINL, DKS, HIBB etc. is also featured prominently on nike.com.

HedgeyeRetail (1/14)  |  NKE App Exclusives, Holiday Comps - 1 14 2016 chart1

(http://solecollector.com/news/release-roundup-the-sneakers-you-need-to-check-out-this-weekend-1-14-2016/)

 

Holiday Sales Comps Down 250bps From 2014

 

Of the 27 retailers/concepts that have reported Holiday sales comps to date 15 have reported a sequential deceleration in the 1yr trend at an average of 7.3%, with 11 posting accelerations at an average rate of 3.3%. On a 2yr basis its more mixed with 1 being flat, 12 posting sequential improvement, and 13 posting a sequential deceleration. In total the average comp for the group is 0.3% down from 2.8% in 2014.

 

As we look forward to 2016, the Street’s numbers are banking on a recovery in growth and margin starting in 1Q. In other words, it’s chalking up this ‘thing’ retailers are feeling now as exactly what management teams want us all to believe – while they cross their fingers, hope and pray that the economy is not really slowing.  YTD, the XRT has marginally underperformed the broader market by 100bps. But, it’s trading at 16x earnings, and has short interest that is disproportionately low for an economy that is #LateCycle. We’re net sellers of Retail.

HedgeyeRetail (1/14)  |  NKE App Exclusives, Holiday Comps - 1 14 2016 chart2E

HedgeyeRetail (1/14)  |  NKE App Exclusives, Holiday Comps - 1 14 2016 chart3

 

ETSY, AMZN - Amazon and Etsy Gain in Search Exposure, eBay Tumbles

(http://www.ecommercebytes.com/cab/abn/y16/m01/i14/s01)

HedgeyeRetail (1/14)  |  NKE App Exclusives, Holiday Comps - 1 14 2016 chart5

 

NKE - Kevin Hart Reveals His Nike Signature Shoe on the Tonight Show, to be released in April

Note: Kevin Hart has 24.7mm twitter followers, Kanye West has 17.1mm

(http://footwearnews.com/2016/focus/athletic-outdoor/kevin-hart-nike-sneakers-jimmy-fallon-183853/)

 

W - Wayfair.com Launches One-Stop Flooring Shop

(http://investor.wayfair.com/investor-relations/press-releases/press-releases-details/2016/Wayfaircom-Launches-One-Stop-Flooring-Shop/default.aspx)

 

NKE - Group of Nike Factory Workers Caught Stealing Thousand of Shoes  in Vietnam

(http://solecollector.com/news/nike-factory-workers-steal-sneakers/)

 

DKS - Dick’s is partnering with predictive analytics solutions provider First Insight to get insight into merchandise

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/dicks-obtains-early-insight-merchandise)

 

GPRO - After a disappointing holiday season, GoPro announces that it will cut 7% of its workforce

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/gopro-plans-jobs-cuts-provides-weak-sales-outlook-1452720993)

 

AMZN - Amazon is opening an AWS region in Montreal, Québec, Canada in the coming year

(https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/in-the-works-aws-region-in-canada/)

 

NKE, AdiBok - After turning down a pay increase and extension from Adidas, John Wall could be joining Nike and Team LeBron 

(http://solecollector.com/news/john-wall-wearing-nike-lebron-sneakers/)

 

Following Ed Crenshaw's retirement announcement on Wednesday, Publix announces that current company President will become president and CEO

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/publix-super-markets-ceo-stepping-down)

 

VSI - David Edwab, the Vitamin Shoppe's lead director since April 2011, has stepped down

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/vitamin-shoppe-overhauls-board-directors)

 

Sheetz investing more than $15mm to raise employee wages between 5-10% without cutting hours

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/chain-increase-employee-wages--without-cutting-hours)


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more