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Why A U.S. Recession Is Actually Bullish For The Dollar


In this brief excerpt from Real-Time-Alerts Live, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber's question and explains why our dour economic outlook is actually bullish for the U.S. dollar.



Subscribe to Real-Time Alerts today for access to this and all other episodes. 


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5 Must-See Clips Distilling Hedgeye's Best Ideas

5 Must-See Clips Distilling Hedgeye's Best Ideas - keith cartoon


Want a quick primer on what Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough thinks about financial markets right now?


The videos below will do precisely that and give you a distinct advantage over the crowd. In less than 15 minutes, you'll gain insight into some of our highest conviction ideas. Whether you watch one or all, these videos should help shelter your portfolio from market meltdowns like today.


P.S. If you like what you see here, you'll definitely enjoy and benefit from our deeper, more granular offering to subscribers. Incidentally, we're having a New Year's promo. Click here to learn more and get a ridiculously good deal.




McCullough: The Three Signs of Coming Recession


Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down the three precursors to a U.S. recession and urges viewers to be wary of one in 2016.



McCullough: This Is Our Best Idea Right Now


McCullough shares our current best idea and highlights the risks of Old Wall-styled year-end calls.


The U.S. Economic Outlook In 2016? Not Good


McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale discuss U.S. third quarter GDP and why our non-consensus 2016 growth outlook is looking grim.




McCullough explains why he’s becoming “the most bullish guy on Wall Street again.” Watch the video to see exactly what he’s so bullish on.



McCullough: ‘Sharp and Ugly Reformation’ Headed for Wall Street


McCullough delivers a fiery response to a subscriber’s question on the staggering level of “negligence and arrogance” from bankers, the Federal Reserve and financial media.


Permabulls Are Living In a Fantasy World

Takeaway: A quick parsing of Old Wall's storytelling.

Permabulls Are Living In a Fantasy World - 8 ball bubble 12.11.2015


After (wildly) missing the mark in 2015, Wall Street consensus is calling for a 7% gain in the S&P 500 for 2016.


We'd take the other side of that trade.  


Meanwhile, as the first trading day of the year begins, Old Wall's bullish cabal isn't getting much help from global equity markets.


(Today's performance [in dollar terms] is highlighted in the image below)

Permabulls Are Living In a Fantasy World - wei ytd


Global markets took a beating after China's lackluster manufacturing data and the US's own (recessionary) ISM number.


Permabulls Are Living In a Fantasy World - ism recession tracker 


For 2016, Wall Street equity strategists had been forecasting profitable year for U.S. stocks, with an S&P 500 target of 2,200. Funny enough, they were a bit more circumspect this go-around. Last week, we noted that many big bank strategists had pegged their 2016 S&P 500 price target to a number now below their 2015 prediction.  


Weird, right?


We've been warning you for a while now about the coming pullback in equity markets. Here's Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, in a video from a month ago, summing up that risk in one word.



Globally, stocks are down today precisely because investors are coming to grips with our #LateCycle and #GrowthSlowing Macro themes.



Remember too, that our Macro team called the highs before the August cliff-dive in the S&P 500 contrary to Wall Street storytelling.


... And here's how it all played out in the real world during 2015.



Today's selloff was not a good start for Old Wall permabulls. Here's a decent New Year's resolution for investors still recovering Old Wall forecasting hangovers.



Or celebrate the New Year by joining us.

investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

RTA Live: January 4, 2016


McCullough: ‘The Economy Is A Slow Moving Train Wreck’

On Fox Business' Mornings with Maria today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discussed why investors shouldn't buy equities on today's pullback and why he still likes the Long bond (TLT).


INSTANT INSIGHT | China Reignites Global Growth Fear

INSTANT INSIGHT | China Reignites Global Growth Fear - China growth cartoon 11.19.2015

We'll say it again... Growth IS Slowing.


That's been our mantra here at Hedgeye for a year and a half now. As we turn the page on 2015, many on Wall Street woke up to that simple fact this morning.


Global equity markets are almost universally selling off following a contractionary PMI reading out of China coupled with last week's PMI bomb in the U.S. The Shanghai Composite Casino plunged 7% today on the manufacturing report.



Here's some analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers this morning:


"... I guess the year-end markups on no volume lost their luster – China had already devalued Yuan to a 5yr low as the economy continued to slow – today the casino in Shanghai is halted (again) at -7% on the day – the “EM/China Growth” story reminds us of Ned Stark in Game of Thrones (it died early in this cycle call and it is not coming back)"


(From our October Q4 Macro Themes presentation)

INSTANT INSIGHT | China Reignites Global Growth Fear - ned stark 


In other #GrowthSlowing news...


"Copper tagged for another -2.7% drop to kick off 2016 - friendly reminder that PMIs have not “bottomed” and the bearish credit cycle is still early relative to some of the crashes we’ve seen in commodity linked currencies, countries, and equities," McCullough wrote. 



We're watching all of the data, not navel-gazing at the Dow. In addition to #GrowthSlowing, our #Deflation call in commodities, is 18 months old now too.


As the data evolves, so do our Macro calls. That's why tomorrow at 1:00pm ET McCullough is hosting our Q1 Macro Themes conference call. Ping sales@hedgeye.com for access.


Our top theme for 2016?


U.S. #Recession

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Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.