It was the year that nothing worked according to Bloomberg.
Our non-consensus team here at Hedgeye begs to differ. We alerted our subscribers to myriad market opportunities on both the long and short side throughout 2015. Here's a sampling of some of our top calls.
What a difference a year or two can make. One of our firm's top contrarian calls included shorting MLPs like Kinder Morgan (KMI) which Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino named one of the best calls of the year. Since maverick Hedgeye analyst Kevin Kaiser sounded the alarm back in August 2013, shares of KMI have plunged 60%.
To be clear, Kaiser was the lone bear on the stock and bore the brunt of exceedingly harsh criticism and personal attacks from Wall Street analysts and supposed market prognosticators only to be vindicated recently when KMI cut its dividend earlier this month.
Another big win (which Wall Street missed) came courtesy of our non-consensus Macro team and their repeated warnings on #Deflation and #GrowthSlowing.
For the record, commodities have collectively fallen over 20% this year with broader deflation consistently confounding the Fed's bullish economic narrative. Watch Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough laying out the thesis in the video below. (Note the #timestamp: 9/18/2014)
Our Healthcare team led by Tom Tobin issued a number of prescient calls in battleground stocks like long Athenahealth (ATHN) and short AMN Healthcare Services (AHS). Check out Tobin's recent write-up in Investopedia, titled "Why a Perfect Storm Is Brewing in Healthcare" which lays out his #ACATaper theme which will continue to rock healthcare stocks well into 2016.
Internet & media:
Sector Head Hesham Shaaban had quite a year. In addition to nailing his short calls on Twitter (TWTR) and Pandora (P), his sole long call in the sector, LinkedIn (LNKD), has ripped ever higher even during a tough year for the broader market.
It's been a tough year for the sector and analyst Jay Van Sciver called it. His shorts on Caterpillar (CAT) and Wabtec (WAB) are down -25% and -17% respectively year-to-date.
Hedgeye Managing Director Howard Penney penned a piece for Fortune back in October "Why McDonald’s stock will never trade below $100 again." What a call. Since then MCD is up 13.5% versus the S&P's 0.6% gain. His research on shorting Shake Shack (SHAK) and Chipotle (CMG) have also worked out rather nicely.
Gaming, lodging and leisure:
After calling the year-to-date bottom in Macau casino stocks Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging and Leisure head Todd Jordan appropriately advised clients to sit on the sidelines before the stocks ultimately tumbled 10% in November. Meanwhile, the long call on Boyd Gaming (BYD) has been a consistent winner for our team.
For more see on the outlook for Gaming stocks, click the video below.
Sector co-heads Jonathan Casteleyn and Josh Steiner nailed the short thesis on Encore Capital Group (ECPG), which is down 33% this year.
All year long, Retail Sector Head Brian McGough has been appropriately suspect about the outlook for the sector, even amidst all the Black Friday chest-thumping. Short calls on Tiffany (TIF) have worked out well. The stock is down 30% year-to-date. In the video below, McGough talks about the two stocks he does like in retail.
Contrary to Bloomberg's reporting, there were plenty of investable ideas that "worked" this year, just not on the books that Wall Street was talking up.
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