INSTANT INSIGHT | The Coming Recession?

INSTANT INSIGHT | The Coming Recession? - recession cartoon 12.22.2015


We think there is an increasing probability that the U.S. economy enters a recession by 3Q 2016.




Below is a brief excerpt from a note that Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough sent to subscribers earlier this morning:


"... Yep. You got the recessionary industrial production print of down -1.2% year-over-year for NOV last week and you’ll get another recessionary Durable Goods print this morning – we signaled to short Industrials (XLI) and Caterpillar (CAT) and Wabtec (WAB) again on green yesterday."


(Editor's Note: See Real-Time Alerts for more information on these short calls.)


As you can see in the chart below, Industrial Production growth slowed to its lowest level since 2009, down -1.2% y/y...


INSTANT INSIGHT | The Coming Recession? - industrial production 2


Oh, and on Durable Goods...


INSTANT INSIGHT | The Coming Recession? - durable


"Durable Goods orders, more colloquially know as recessionary manufacturing data, decelerated across month-over-month and year-over-year," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote following the durable goods release. "Core Capex Orders, meanwhile, continued to slump — recording negative growth for the 10th consecutive month. Remember the Old Wall telling you 'capex is going to accelerate" 12 months ago? It slowed, big time."


There you have it. More data confirming our #Recession call. 

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more