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ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds

Takeaway: In the week before the Fed's first rate hike this cycle, almost all risk asset classes saw withdrawals

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

Almost all risk asset classes experienced net withdrawals in the 5-day period ending December 9th while investors shored up +$13 billion of cash in money market funds, the 8th inflow into cash products in the past 10 weeks aggregating over $85 billion. Other than money markets, only equity ETFs and municipal bond funds saw net positive flows with equity ETFs taking in +$4.1 billion and muni bond funds collecting +$825 million during the week. Meanwhile, taxable bond funds lost -$7.3 billion, their largest outflow of the quarter, on fears of high yield credit exposure. Domestic equity mutual funds lost another -$5.2 billion, bringing the YTD cumulative flow to -$160.2 billion.

 

With 30-40 day duration in most of their money fund portfolios, Federated Investors will now be able to add roughly 6 cents per quarter in new earnings starting in the middle of 1Q16 as new benchmark rates filter through the system (see our FII report HERE).

 


ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI1

 

In the most recent 5-day period ending December 9th, total equity mutual funds put up net outflows of -$6.4 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$1.1 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$620 million. The outflow was composed of international stock fund withdrawals of -$1.2 billion and domestic stock fund withdrawals of -$5.2 billion. International equity funds have had positive flows in 41 of the last 52 weeks while domestic equity funds have had only 8 weeks of positive flows over the same time period.

 

Fixed income mutual funds put up net outflows of -$6.5 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$58 million and the 2014 average inflow of +$926 million. The outflow was composed of tax-free or municipal bond funds contributions of +$825 million and taxable bond funds withdrawals of -$7.3 billion.

 

Equity ETFs had net subscriptions of +$4.1 billion, outpacing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$2.4 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$3.2 billion. Fixed income ETFs had net outflows of -$39 million, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$1.1 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$1.0 billion.

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.



Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from the ICI mutual fund survey and includes the weekly average for 2014 and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI2

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI3

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI4

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI5

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI6



Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from the ICI mutual fund survey for each year starting with 2008.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI12

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI13 2

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI14

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI15

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI16



Most Recent 12 Week Flow within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from Bloomberg's ETF database (matched to the Wednesday to Wednesday reporting format of the ICI), the weekly average for 2014, and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015. In the third table are the results of the weekly flows into and out of the major market and sector SPDRs:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI7

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI8



Sector and Asset Class Weekly ETF and Year-to-Date Results: In sector SPDR callouts, investors withdrew -5% or -$306 million from the long treasury TLT ETF ahead of the Fed's first rate hike in seven years. Additionally, the industrials XLI also lost -5% or -$315 million.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI9



Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from Bloomberg's ETF database for each year starting with 2013.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI17

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI18



Net Results:

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF flows against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive +$4.1 billion spread for the week (-$2.4 billion of total equity outflow net of the -$6.5 billion outflow from fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52-week moving average is +$858 million (more positive money flow to equities) with a 52-week high of +$27.9 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52-week low of -$19.0 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week.)

  

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI10

 


Exposures:
The weekly data herein is important for the public asset managers with trends in mutual funds and ETFs impacting the companies with the following estimated revenue impact:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | Bull Market in Money Funds - ICI11 



Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 

 

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA







An open letter to the CEO of Chipotle from his peer group

Dear Mr. Ells,

 

Thank you so much for making a TV appearance the other day as part of your apology tour.  It’s great to see you since, well, never.  I also read your full spread ad in the paper yesterday.  It’s a nice Mea culpa but begs the question “Why weren’t you more serious about food safety earlier?” 

 

You normally fly under the radar screen, unless of course you could take advantage of a platform to publicly admonish your peers about "food with integrity” — much to our dismay (and we were jealous as you picked off our sales).  But mostly we were dismayed since we didn’t agree with the entirety of your approach.

 

We (the industry) didn't believe your approach was legitimate or sustainable at your scale and please note that we have been at the foodservice thing for a long time.  Dining out wasn’t invented yesterday for god’s sakes.

 

We let you run with it though, just like we let you run your mouth.

 

We mostly remember you as the guy proselytizing: “Spending money dining at my joint is better than spending it at your joint. Why?  Because I say so.  I know how things should work. If you don’t believe me, just ask me.  I based my brand on authentic, local and protein friendly."  Nevermind that much of your marketing nonsense is just that — nonsense.

 

We also find it interesting that you are going to save the planet and all the lovely critters on it as well. Especially, you know, the special critters — swine, bullock and fowl.  Mr. Ells, how come you don’t take credit for birthing all these animals so you can kill them and stuff them into your burritos?  If not for you, this protein wouldn’t exist for you to harvest.  We understand it’s a tough marketing message — We are responsible for raising a large number of critters for a specific purpose — to grow them, kill them and eat them (but we smother them gently)."

 

However, Mr. Ells, we must remind you that you forgot to include the most basic rule of foodservice in your brand architecture.  You know…like the number #1 rule?

 

Rule #1: Don’t make the guest sick.

Rule #2: Don’t forget rule #1.

 

It’s interesting that the food sold by most chains and supplied by conventional sources seems to be safer than yours.  Other than a hamburger chain 20+ years ago we don’t recall a chain of your size that successfully created so many cases of acute abdominal distress in such a short time. 

 

Take Subway for instance, especially since they use the same style production line.  We can’t recall an issue there on the scale of yours, and they are a heck of a lot bigger.  Perhaps you can learn a few tips from the chains you are fond of trashing.  They appear to practice foodservice basics you ignore.  Perhaps they can’t claim they are GMO free, but lets come clean…neither can you.  Right?

 

Mr. Ells, congratulations on the successful transformation of an enviable brand into “just another foodservice joint”.  You set a land speed record doing that.  You lost the halo you didn’t deserve and betting odds are it will stay lost.  And make no mistake about it — that is exactly what you are today, just another foodservice joint and an expensive one at that.

 

Sincerely,

 

Your Peers

 


Cartoon of the Day: Surf's Up!

Cartoon of the Day: Surf's Up! - rate hike cartoon 12.16.2015

 

"The Fed should have raised rates into the acceleration of 2013 and be cutting rates now," said Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough while hosting Fed Day Live, which featured in-depth analysis and an interactive Q&A following the Fed's rate hike.

 

Click here to watch the replay.


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NSC | Biased Sources

Takeaway:  The CP bid may have already created value for NSC by forcing NSC management to drive more efficient operations.  Performance metrics have already improved notably, with NSC velocity higher than CP’s in December.  While NSC shareholders should be very skeptical of both CP claims and bulge bracket analyst coverage, we also think that NSC management is giving an overconfident read on the regulatory hurdles.  We plan to ignore the biased NSC shouting and instead focus on the potential for improved operating performance, consolidation, or both.

 

 

 

Since our September NSC Long Black Book, shares of NSC have outperformed in what is an increasingly obvious industrial contraction.  The rail discussion has shifted from a bearish volume decline narrative to a bullish consolidation narrative.  Improved operating performance at NSC is underway, and we suspect the valuation premium associated with merger potential is unlikely to fade near-term.  While a long NSC position requires tolerance for tedious conference calls and headline driven volatility, we continue to expect the shares to perform well relative to a challenged sector.  Sure, fourth quarter coal volumes are going to be weak – anyone who has gone outside in North America can put that together; weak coal is why the shares are in the 80s instead of in the triple digits.  Market focus has already shifted to 2016 and beyond.

 

NSC | Biased Sources - NSC Velocity

 

 

CP & Ackman Bias:  While he gets some negative press, we think Bill Ackman’s participation in the rail industry of late is productive.  He deserves credit for helping the consolidation narrative. We agree with CP that NSC is an attractive asset, particularly in the mid-70s to low 80s, with significant potential to improve performance.  However, Ackman is also a smart and self-interested activist fund manager; NSC holders should view CP’s input with overwhelming skepticism.  Ackman is correctly pushing his book since that is his obligation; he is long CP, on the CP Board, and wants NSC on the cheap.  We can respect that.  But do we care what CP or Ackman says about a potential BNSF bid for NSC? Nope.  Are they about to bid for CSX? Probably not, and it wouldn’t necessarily be a negative for NSC long-term.  Is the CP offer “highly attractive”? Obviously not.  Do they present their bids with a misleading headline number? That is our take.  Is EHH the only person who can fix NSC?  No, and even he is pretty hot on his COO’s skill set.  We’ll stick to just the number, however structured and presented; the number is still too low.

 

 

“I think the analyst community can be very helpful in what you say and what you write.” - Ackman 12/8/15

 

 

Careful Trusting Bulge Bracket Analysts, Too:  Holders of NSC should also view traditional Street coverage with more skepticism than usual, as we see it.  First, the Street typically loves the volume, volatility, attention, fees and deals generated by a circus atmosphere.  Second, CP’s use of Street analysis in the deal valuation and suggestion that “the analyst community…weigh in” with the NSC Board (along with long calls that get analyst’s names in the transcript) could be viewed as a not-so-subtle effort to get the Street in line.  We’d love to hear the off-line conversations/pressure. 

 

 

“Let's look at analysts' estimates going again back to Citi, quote, based on our math, NS' target for a sub-65% OR in 2020 was largely priced into the valuation prior to CP's proposal …. So, if you want that plan, that's worth CAD 90 a share according to analysts' estimates. The stock is trading above that. You should sell your stock in NS.” Ackman 12/8/15

 

 

HLF Contradiction:  According to analyst estimates, HLF is worth $70 a share (12 month price target average).  By the above logic, shorts should cover…and get long HLF.  Also, we would point out that Street price targets for NSC were much higher last year, with the average at around $120.  Street valuations follow share prices, not the other way around.  We would be surprised if Mr. Ackman uses bulge bracket valuations for…well…pretty much anything in his fund’s investment decision-making.

 

 

“We estimate the total value of the stock and cash consideration to NSC shareholders to be worth $125 to $140 per share at the closing of the transaction in May 2016. The revised transaction offers a 37% to 53% premium to today's closing price of $91.52 and a 58% to 77% premium to the unaffected price of $79.14 per share.” – CP Press Release 12/8/15

 

 

Why NSC Rejected Bid, As We See It:  We believe the NSC Board has rejected the bid because the price is too low.  Efforts to obfuscate the bid by pitching the possible operating performance and synergies have not confused the market – CP is not bidding $125 + CVR or $140 + CVR.  They are instead guessing at how the market will value the combined company; we aren’t sure where a regulator would come down on that framing, but we note its absence from the press release today.  The addition of the CVR today adds a bit of value, but we think that it would take a bid in excess of, perhaps, $100 per share to get the NSC Board to take the risks of the proposed transaction with engagement.  If NSC goes the sale route, they would have an obligation to seek full and fair value, and to explore the potential other suitors.  No one knows how the regulatory process will play out; taking on additional regulatory scrutiny is not a good idea without a substantial reward.

 

 

What We Do See:   NSC management also has an agenda (keeping their jobs) and is probably overstating the challenges to the deal.  After all, no one really knows what the regulators will say – most likely including the regulators.  Management should encourage a higher offer to maximize shareholder value, and not much else.  But NSC management has one huge advantage – performance is dramatically improving.  We don’t really care if Mr. Squires was a lawyer or a pole-dancer as long as he improves NSC’s performance.  Speeds are soaring and dwell is plummeting – both are key to what Mr. Harrison is targeting for NSC.  Perhaps the best part of the CP bid is that it has forced NSC management to set long-term targets and move toward hitting them to keep their jobs.

 

NSC | Biased Sources - NSC Dwell

 

 

Upshot: The CP bid may have already created value for NSC by forcing NSC management to drive more efficient operations.  Performance metrics have already improved notably, with NSC velocity higher than CP’s in December.  While NSC shareholders should be very skeptical of both CP claims and bulge bracket analyst coverage, we also think that NSC management is giving an overconfident read on the regulatory hurdles.  We plan to ignore the biased NSC shouting and instead focus on the potential for improved operating performance, consolidation, or both.

 

 


MUST-SEE: 8 Cartoons Highlighting the Rate Hike Absurdity

With the Fed decision fast approaching, we thought it prudent to reiterate the absurdity of hiking interest rates into an economic slowdown. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough will host Fed Day Live today at 2:10 p.m. to dissect the FOMC statement. (Join us this afternoon by clicking here. It's free!) 

 

Instead of running through all the data to support our #GrowthSlowing theme (yet again), here's a "best-of" visual representation of sorts from Hedgeye Cartoonist Bob Rich. Enjoy!   

 

1. yellen & Co. Are confused about economic growth...

MUST-SEE: 8 Cartoons Highlighting the Rate Hike Absurdity - Rate hike cartoon 11.30.2015

 

2. the fed has its own rosy economic projections...

MUST-SEE: 8 Cartoons Highlighting the Rate Hike Absurdity - Rate hike cartoon 11.06.2016

 

3. dEFLATION AND SLOWING GROWTH are "TRANSITORY"?

MUST-SEE: 8 Cartoons Highlighting the Rate Hike Absurdity - rate hike cartoon 11.05.2015

 

4. our own reality-based measures suggest otherwise...

MUST-SEE: 8 Cartoons Highlighting the Rate Hike Absurdity - Rate hike cartoon 11.27.2015

 

5. SO WE AUDITED THE FED'S OWN FORECAST NUMBERS...

MUST-SEE: 8 Cartoons Highlighting the Rate Hike Absurdity - fed tightening noose

 

6. AND WOULDN'T YOU KNOW IT, THEY'RE WRONG 70% OF THE TIME...

MUST-SEE: 8 Cartoons Highlighting the Rate Hike Absurdity - Rate hike cartoon 09.04.2015

 

7. THE RISK? THE FED TIGHTENS INTO A SLOWDOWN today...

MUST-SEE: 8 Cartoons Highlighting the Rate Hike Absurdity - Rate hike Grinch 12.03.2015

 

8. you know where we stand. we'll see what happens at 2pm...

MUST-SEE: 8 Cartoons Highlighting the Rate Hike Absurdity - rate hike cartoon 12.04.2015

 


Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation

Takeaway: We remain firmly in the #StrongDollar, #GlobalDeflation camp, but are aware of the risks to overstaying our welcome.

Going into today’s likely rate hike there’s been a great deal of chatter throughout the investment community regarding the risk that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) actually peaks “on the news” and subsequently trends lower in the ensuing months.

 

We even took to discussing that risk in the second half of our 12/3 note titled, “Draghi Disappoints… Is This the Beginning of the “Great Unwind” of Consensus USD Longs?”; we strongly believe that analysis is worth your time to review. The following charts are arguably the two most noteworthy examples of the many Bayesian and Frequentist overlays we applied to our handicapping of the aforementioned market risk.

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - EXTREME POSITIONS MONITOR

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - DXY Historical Rate Hike Analysis

 

All factors considered, we do think it’s important to revisit why we got here. We’ve held intermediate-to-long-term bearish biases on the Japanese yen since 4Q12 and, except for a brief respite throughout 1H14, a similarly bearish TREND and TAIL outlook for the EUR since 1Q13. With the JPY down -32% over the past 3Y and the EUR down -19% over the past 18M, we would argue those have been good calls.

 

Kudos aside, our proprietary GIP Modeling process and quantitative risk management overlay leads us to conclude that it is appropriate to maintain our intermediate-to-long-term bearish biases on the EUR and JPY. Additionally, recent developments out of the PBoC and BoE support adopting similar biases on the CNY and GBP as well.

 

As such, it’s no surprise to see the DXY remain bullish from an intermediate-term TREND and long-term TAIL perspective on our quant factors.

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - DXY

 

Eurozone: The preponderance of Eurozone high-frequency growth data is confirming our extremely dour NTM outlook for Eurozone economic growth. Moreover, inflation remains well below the ECB’s +2% target from the perspective of reported data, 2016 economist expectations and long-term breakeven rates. Both Draghi and ECB Chief Economist Praet were out Monday reiterating a willingness to do more if needed. If our forecasts are proven correct, they will indeed find themselves doing a lot “more” at some point in 1H16.

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - Eurozone Economic Summary

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - EUROZONE

 

Japan: The preponderance of Japanese high-frequency growth data is confirming our dour near-term outlook for Japanese economic growth. While core inflation readings have been elevated relative to historic trends, they fall well shy of the BoJ’s +2% target. Moreover, we are picking up on chatter that falling inflation expectations per the 4Q Tankan Survey and long-term breakeven rates are giving BoJ board members cause for concern. While it’s unlikely they expand QQE coming out of their meeting tomorrow, we do think the timing of that catalyst has edged forward by a month or two. Specifically, we think BoJ monetary policy is most likely to get incrementally dovish at the APR 28th meeting in conjunction with a downward revision to their economic projections.

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - Japan Economic Summary

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - JAPAN

 

China: We’ve been pretty vocal about our outlook for a material, but managed depreciation of the CNY in recent weeks, most recently in our 12/11 note titled, “Our #EmergingOutflows Theme Accelerates Into “Liftoff””. We consider our 11/19 note titled, “Can Beijing Maintain Exchange Rate Stability Or Is the Chinese Yuan the Next Thai Baht?” to be required reading on that front as well. Key developments on that front include the PBoC’s explicit confirmation of both our structurally bearish outlook for the Chinese economy (phony accounting aside), as well as our view that Beijing intends to ensure the devaluation of the yuan will be as orderly as possible going forward.

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - China Economic Summary

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - CHINA

 

United Kingdom: Our interpretation of the state of and outlook for the U.K. economy is remarkably similar to that of the Eurozone (not surprising given the positive slope of GDP base effects in both economies) – with the noteworthy exception that long-term breakeven rates in the U.K. remain elevated from the perspective of the BoE’s +2% inflation target. Though said rates have tightened by a fair amount in recent months, the real boogeymen lending pause to Carney are historically depressed rates of both core CPI and PPI, as well as a dovish outlook for 2016 CPI among economists. We thought Carney’s commentary from this morning regarding conditions for a rate hike as being “unfulfilled” were quite telling in the context of the GBP/USD cross’ recent breakdown below its now TREND line of resistance at 1.54. The pound should continue to follow short-term GBP/USD swap spreads lower as U.K. growth data forces the BoE to back away from its hawkish guidance, at the margins.

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - U.K. Economic Summary

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - UNITED KINGDOM

 

United States: Our view on the outlook for U.S. monetary policy begins and ends with the politicization of the Federal Reserve – which remains out to lunch from the perspective of its economic forecasts and associated “dot plot”. As we penned in a detailed note yesterday titled, “Quantifying Why the Fed Is Wrong On Its Outlook For Inflation”, we think the Fed is conflating what we view as a short-lived trough in reported inflation with a sustainable bottom in structural inflation trends. As a result, there exists considerable risk that the Fed tightens policy and maintains an unwarranted tightening bias until it is too late (i.e. we still think a recession commences in/around mid-2016). By then it could be too late for Janet & Co. to react appropriately dovish in terms of handicapping the risk that the U.S. election cycle is decidedly anti Big Fed.

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - U.S. Economic Summary

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - UNITED STATES

 

Recall that our then-described “G3 policy divergence” theme has been the primary driver of our #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation view – which itself is at the core of our long-held bearish biases on commodities (since AUG ’14), emerging markets (since APR ’13) and high-yield credit (since AUG ’14).

 

As such, with a TREND and TAIL bullish outlook on for the USD vis-à-vis peer currencies and the CRB Index hitting lows not seen since 2002 today, we find it appropriate to reiterate that theme, as well as key spillover effects – namely corporate profit and industrial recession globally.

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - S P 500 EPS

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - CRB vs. MSCI World EPS

 

Macro Playbook Update: Keep Betting On #StrongDollar #GlobalDeflation - CRB vs. World Gross Capital Formation

 

All told, we remain firmly in the #StrongDollar, #GlobalDeflation camp – largely because we think the ECB, BoJ, PBoC and now BoE are all likely to remain more dovish than the Fed, at the margins – but are well aware of the aforementioned Bayesian and Frequentist risks to overstaying our welcome. 

 

Our deep understanding of such risks leaves us in a good place to quickly make any eventual pivot to the #GlobalStagflation camp to the extent a macro market regime change is confirmed by our myriad of quantitative signals. That scenario remains the least probable within the band of probable outcomes, however.

 

Ex-Healthcare, which we are now decidedly bearish on as a firm, long live the #Quad4, #LateCycle playbook!

 

Best of luck out there,

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Director


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