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Takeaway: Our tracker has moderated somewhat, but is still improving. However, we're still cautious about staying long into its 2016 guidance release

KEY POINTS

  1. SELLING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SOLID: Our LNKD JOLTS tracker flattened out following the final update to 3Q15, suggesting an improving, but moderating selling environment.  Our tracker has produced a relatively tight correlation with LNKD's Talent Solutions ARPA dating back to 1Q11 (~0.72).  As a reminder, our LNKD Talent Solutions TAM analysis suggests that the bulk of that TAM is in the upsell opportunity (ARPA) vs. new account volume.  See 2nd note below for detail.  
  2. BUT CAUTIOUS INTO ITS 2016 GUIDANCE RELEASE: Our concern is not LNKD's fundamentals, but rather a conservative mgmt team that probably isn't willing to box itself into guidance that is can't confidently raise throughout the year.  The good thing is that won't be until February, so we will get at least 2-3 more updates to our tracker before then.  If our tracker continues to improve, then we may stay long into the release.  If not, we're definitely getting out of the way, and will reasses the setup post print.  

See the notes below for supporting detail/analysis on our LNKD Long thesis and post-print thoughts.  Let us know if you would like to disucss.  

Hesham Shaaban, CFA


@HedgeyeInternet 

LNKD | Tracker Update (Talent Solutions) - LNKD   ARPA vs. JOLTS 3Q15 4

LNKD: Thank You Santa (3Q15)
10/30/15 09:26 AM EDT
[click here]

LNKD: New Best Idea (Long)
07/14/15 08:00 AM EDT
[click here]