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The Macro Show Replay | September 18, 2015

 


September 18, 2015

September 18, 2015 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

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BEARISH TRENDS

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We Made the Contrarian "Lower-For-Longer" Call

By now you've almost certainly read or heard the highly-anticipated Fed "news."

 

No rate hike.

 

With a global slowdown (which we called well before our competition and the Fed for that matter) and nervous financial markets staring them in the eyes, our omnipotent central-planners blinked and held its key federal funds rate unchanged. 

 

What you may not have know is that our subscribers were prepared. We have been on record for many months now (please see examples below) calling for precisely what the Fed said today:

 

Lower. For. Longer.

 

We Made the Contrarian "Lower-For-Longer" Call - Growth cartoon 06.03.2015

(Cartoon above originally published on June 3, 2015)

 

On a related note, here's a tweet Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote around the same time:

 

We Made the Contrarian "Lower-For-Longer" Call - z km 99

 

Fast-forward to earlier this afternoon, McCullough tweeted the following:

 

"Yellen is simply not as good at her forecasting job as Hedgeye is."


Now, some people may interpret that as braggadocio. We respectfully disagree. What's going on right now in the U.S. and around the globe is serious business affecting real people from all walks of life.

 

Our proactive macro team has been all over this non-consensus, "lower-for-longer" Fed rate hike and growth-slowing call. We were contrarian and we were correct.

 

Again.

 

Take a look at the video below from The Macro Show. It's callled "The Fed Is Going To Be Lower (Easier) For Longer" and was released this past spring. It shows what our contrarian macro team led by McCullough has been warning about for some time now.

 

 

We invite you to take a deeper look at our contrarian research. Click here to learn more about how you can begin getting a step or two ahead of the herd and protect your portfolio.

 

There's a better way. We promise.


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Cartoon of the Day: No Rate Hike

Cartoon of the Day: No Rate Hike - No rate hike cartoon 09.17.205

 

Earlier this afternoon, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough tweeted the following:

 

"Yellen is simply not as good at her forecasting job as Hedgeye is." 

 

Some may interpret that as braggadocio. We respectfully beg to differ. What's going on right now around the globe is serious business affecting real people from all walks of life. Our proactive macro team has been absolutely all over this non-consensus, "lower-for-longer" Fed and growth-slowing call. We were correct.

 

Again. 

 

We invite you to take a deeper look at our contrarian research. Click here to learn more about how you can begin getting a step or two ahead of the herd and protect your portfolio. 


We’re Short Wayfair | $W

Following the recent release of our well-received Home Furnishings “Black Book,” our Retail team led by Sector Head Brian McGough decided to produce a stand-alone “Black Book” on Wayfair (W) which we presented on Monday.

 

We’re Short Wayfair | $W - z w7

 

McGough’s team did so given the increasing controversy surrounding the name. The focus of the deck was primarily upon the following key areas:

  • market size by category
  • revenue capacity and trajectory
  • customer acquisition costs, profitability and churn
  • appropriate expectations for gross margins
  • operational infrastructure and capital needed to break even,

 

The most important component of the deck is the sizable difference between how Wayfair is currently being viewed by Retail analysts vs. Internet analysts.

 

To be clear: our view is that Wayfair’s financial model does not work. The company will likely print negative earnings for the foreseeable future.

 

(*Please email our institutional sales team if you would like access to our Wayfair Black Book. You can reach them at sales@hedgeye.com)


A Closer Look at ETFs – ‘There’s a Lot of Risk in the System’

 

Hedgeye Financials analyst Jonathan Casteleyn appeared on today’s edition of The Macro Show and shed some light on the underlying risks in ETFs and the broader trading system. In his response to a subscriber’s question, Casteleyn reinforced the idea that cash is king in this current environment and to stay with companies that benefit from volatility.

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.

 


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