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Takeaway: Our tracker suggests an improving selling environment into 3Q15, reinforcing our view that mgmt was crying wolf with its organic guide down.

KEY POINTS

  1. TRACKER SUGGESTS IMPROVING SELLING ENVIRONMENT: Our LNKD JOLTS tracker is accelerating early into 3Q15, suggesting an improving selling environment.  Our tracker has produced a relatively tight correlation with LNKD's Talent Solutions ARPA dating back to 1Q11 (~0.75).  As a reminder, our LNKD Talent Solutions TAM analysis suggest the bulk of that TAM is in the upsell opportunity (ARPA) vs. new account volume.  See 2nd note below for detail.  
  2. GUIDANCE = WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Our conversation with IR and our review of the 10-Q solidified our view that LNKD all but removed Display Advertising revenue from its guidance (see 1st note below).  That said, we see Talent Solutions as the swing factor moving forward, and LNKD doesn't need much to handily beat rebased 2H15 consensus revenue estimates (see scenario analysis below).  The improving selling environment mentioned above further reinforces our view that mgmt cried wolf (again) when it cut organic guidance on its last print.  

See the notes below for supporting detail/analysis on our Long thesis.  Let us know if you have any questions or would like to discuss further.

Hesham Shaaban, CFA


@HedgeyeInternet 

LNKD: Tracker Update (Talent Solutions) - LNKD   ARPA vs. JOLTS 3Q15

LNKD: Tracker Update (Talent Solutions) - LNKD   TS Scen 2015 3Q15 

LNKD: Notes from 10-Q & IR
08/26/15 10:35 AM EDT
[click here

LNKD: New Best Idea (Long)
07/14/15 08:00 AM EDT
[click here]