Monday Mashup

Monday Mashup - CHART 1



8/28/15 ZOES | Entering the Big Leagues


8/17/15 MCD | Create Your Taste Experience




Friday, August 28

ZOES | Entering the Denver market full force, three leases signed for restaurants to be completed next year (click here for article)


Thursday, August 27

MCD | Dropped chicken supplier after investigation uncovers mistreatment of animals (click here for article)


Wednesday, August 26

QSR | Burger King reached out to MCD to join forces for a good cause, MCD declined to participate (click here for article)


Tuesday, August 25

MCD | Real-estate drama is always surrounding the company, we continue to believe it is not right for the company (click here for article)

BJRI | BJ’s Restaurants opens new location in Little Rock, Arkansas (click here for article)

Smashburger | Goes Better-For-You with new grilled chicken strips and other options for their Kids Meal menu (click here for article)

KKD | To open 10 shops in Myanmar over the next five years (click here for article)

CAKE | Opens new location in Austin, Texas (click here for article)


Monday, August 24

CMG | To hire 4,000 people in a single day on September 9th (click here for article)

NDLS | Appointed Dave Boennighausen to the Board of Directors (click here for article)

FRS | Frisch’s Restaurants approved the merger transaction with NRD Partners, will be formally delisted on September 4, 2015 (click here for article)

DFRG | Opened new Grille location in Stamford, CT (click here for article)



Casual dining stock widely underperformed the XLY while quick service stocks outperformed it last week. The XLY was up +1.6%, top performers from casual dining were CAKE and BWLD posting an increase of +1.3% and +0.8%, respectively, while ARCO and GMCR led the quick service group again this week up +7.6% and +6.3%, respectively.

Monday Mashup - CHART 2

Monday Mashup - CHART 3



From a quantitative perspective, the XLY looks bearish from a TRADE and TREND perspective, TRADE support is 69.82.

Monday Mashup - CHART 4



Monday Mashup - CHART 5

Monday Mashup - CHART 6



Monday Mashup - CHART 7

Monday Mashup - CHART 8


Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

  1. FEDERAL RESERVE – Fischer opted for dovish comments on Friday, making his Saturday comments more hawkish – I guess they look at the S&P Futures now before saying anything of consequence (today he’d be dovish); Fed Fund futures have ramped back up to 38% on a SEP hike probability – reminder: the Fed has never hiked into a slowdown
  2. COMMODITIES – dovish = commodity reflation; hawkish = commodity #Deflation – so the deflation TREND is right back on this morning w/ Oil, Copper, and Russia down -2-3%; WTI’s risk range blew out to $36.99-45.32 on Friday, all but ensuring that massive volatility remains in this asset class
  3. SP500 – still has the widest risk range my model has generated since 2008 at 1 with the more probable level being the downside one (-7.7% from Friday’s close), given that the Fed could be tightening into a 0.1% GDP environment here in Q3 (our low-end scenario with the high end being at 1.5% and the Atlanta Fed tracking 1.2%)



Please call or e-mail with any questions.


Howard Penney

Managing Director


Shayne Laidlaw



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