AHS | ADDING TO SHORT BENCH (UPDATED POSITION MONITOR)

Takeaway: We're adding AHS to our short bench as a way to play the ACA Tailwind/ACA Headwind Theme. Dropping DGX to Long Bench.

  • AHS SHORT BENCH (NEW)
  • DGX CLOSING LONG, MOVING TO LONG BENCH (Link to Note)

ADDING AHS TO SHORT BENCH | ACA HEADWIND THEME

AHS is a nurse staffing company who's current sentiment rank is among the highest across our universe of companies (short signal) and may be a good candidate for our ACA Tailwind/ACA Headwind Theme.   The theme assumes that the ACA Tailwind, which brought with it a massive one-time expansion of insured medical consumers, will mean revert in terms of enrollment growth and per member spending.  Our ACA Tracker looks at monthly data which currently shows slowing enrollment and flattening per enrollee spending which is significantly elevated compared to pre-ACA levels.  AHS has done well as the marginal supplier of nurse staffing while the ACA drove demand across the Healthcare landscape, including HCA and other hospitals where volume growth is at multi-year highs.  We expect the ACA Headwind will emerge as early as 2H15 and carry into 2016 as new enrollment and pent-up demand work through the medical delivery system.  Below are specific monthly time series which we'll use to track AHS business trends as we build out the work on AHS and while monitoring our ACA Tracker for deceleration.

 

AHS | ADDING TO SHORT BENCH (UPDATED POSITION MONITOR) - 2015 07 27 Position Monitor

AHS | ADDING TO SHORT BENCH (UPDATED POSITION MONITOR) - 2015 07 27 AHS Health Care Employment

AHS | ADDING TO SHORT BENCH (UPDATED POSITION MONITOR) - 2015 07 27 AHS Jolts

 


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