prev

RTA Live: July 24, 2015

Below is the replay from today's edition of RTA Live.

 

 


DE: Removing Deere In Exchange for Foot Locker (FL) - Bear Side

Please note that we are removing Deere from Investing Ideas today (bear side) and replacing it with Foot Locker (also bear side). Please see brief explanation below from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

*  *  *  *  *

DE: Removing Deere In Exchange for Foot Locker (FL) - Bear Side - z8fl

Like we did with Shake Shack (SHAK), we’re trying to give you a look-inside our Institutional Research #process where NOT buying the all-time highs in names is an important risk management decision for long-term investors.

 

We’ll keep the SELL ideas list fresh for you so that there’s a flow of new research information. Especially at #LateCycle market tops (they are processes, not points), timing matters.

 

Now that DE has backed off its highs, we’ll exchange it with FL (at its highs).

KM


P: Good Print, Odd Pivot (2Q15)

Takeaway: P's new plan to ramp 2H15 marketing expense is an odd pivot this late in the year. Mgmt may be getting more nervous about Web IV.

KEY POINTS

  1. GOOD PRINT: P produced upside to 2Q estimates on a reacceleration in ad revenue growth, and also guided high 3Q15 revenues (we expected soft 3Q guidance).  The biggest surprise from 2Q15 was a sharp acceleration in Advertising RPMs growth (up 25% vs. 15% in 1Q15), which on a stand-alone basis would be very encouraging, but was largely fueled by a sharp deceleration in listener hour growth from fewer skipped tracks (enhanced user customization).  The one blemish was the consensus miss on Active Listeners, which we continue to expect will decline y/y by 4Q15.  Regardless, a better print than we expected.
  2. ODD PIVOT: P softened its tone a bit regarding Web IV, suggesting that it’s planning for a range of potential outcomes, which is naturally the prudent move, and not a concern.  But what caught us by surprise was P's new plan to ramp 2H15 marketing expenses.  P left 2015 EBITDA guidance in tact despite net 1H15 upside ~$12M, which is supposedly going toward incremental 2H15 marketing.  For context, marketing spend was $17.6M in 1H15, and $16.4M for all of 2014.  We suspect this marketing ramp is either a sign that P is increasingly concerned with its attrition OR that P is trying to make a late push into its higher-ARPU subscription product ahead of a potentially crippling Web IV decision for ad-focused model.  Either way, it’s an odd pivot this late in year, especially following closing arguments for Web IV this past Tuesday.  
  3. WEB IV IS ALL THAT MATTERS:  We have been writing about this ad nauseam, so we'll keep this brief, and refer you to the links below.  We expect P is going to lose the one debate that it can't (bifurcated royalty), and our take from Web IV final arguments is that P will be the odd man out from the tacit horse trading between SX and NAB/IHRT.  For more detail, see links below.  

 

Let us know if you have any questions, or would like to discuss in more detail.  

 

Hesham Shaaban, CFA

@HedgeyeInternet 

 

 

WEBCASTER IV NOTES 

 

P: Notes from WebIV Closing Arguments

07/22/15 01:26 PM EDT

[click here]

 

P: Losing the Critical Debate?

04/08/15 08:53 AM EDT

[click here]

 

P: Worst-Case Scenario? (Web IV)

03/23/15 09:30 AM EDT

[click here]

 

P: Webcaster IV = Powder Keg

01/13/15 02:49 PM EST

[click here]

 


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

LEISURE LETTER (07/24/2015) - MPEL, MGM, CCL

TICKERS: MPEL, MGM 


 

EVENTS   

 

July 24 11am-2pm:  PENN Plainridge tour and investor day

July 28 8:30am: WYN 2Q CC ; PW: WYNDHAM

July 29 10:00am: HLT 2Q CC ; PW: 74328196

July 30 9:00am: HST 2Q CC

July 30 10:00am: MAR 2Q CC ; PW: 66506287

July 30 1:00pm: HOT 2Q CC ; PW: 69941686

July 31 10:00am: RCL 2Q CC 

August 1

  • Wild Rose Jefferson opens
  • St Regis Macau opens

August 4: 11:00am: MGM 2Q CC ; PW: 0575269

August 4: 5:00pm: AWAY 2Q CC

August 6: 8:30-1pm: RCL INVESTOR DAY (NYSE)

COMPANY NEWS      

MPEL - Declining GGR risks need for austerity from Macau gaming operators, according to Lawrence Ho, CEO of MPEL

  • “As the [Macau] Secretary for Finance said, this [GGR monthly tally] is kind of right at the level where the [Macau] government might need to look at austerity measures, which would be less than ideal,” Ho said.
  • “If the government is looking at austerity measures, maybe a lot of other businesses – including gaming operators – will have to look at it as well,” he added. He did not say what those cost-cutting measures could be, according to media reports
  • Ho also said they will soon announce the opening date for Studio City, which is 95% complete.

ARTICLE HERE

 

MGM - A 15% to 25% loss in gaming revenue was possible if a blanket smoking ban would be imposed on casinos, as had been the case in other gaming jurisdictions, MGM China CEO Grant Bowie said Thursday.  Bowie insisted that smoking lounges were a “very good compromise” vis-à-vis the government’s proposal to impose a full smoking ban on all gaming premises, comprising mass gaming floors and VIP rooms.

ARTICLE HERE 

INDUSTRY NEWS 

McCarran Passenger Traffic - Las Vegas Intl. Airport reported the following traffic numbers for June: 

  • Total passenger traffic was 3,911,813 vs. 3,698,373 in June of 2014, good for a 5.8% YoY increase
  • June's numbers bring the YTD total to 22.1 million vs 21.2 million in 2014, a 3.8% YoY increase.
  • Domestic passengers made up 3,533,752 of the total, a 5.7% YoY increase
  • International made up 291,011 of the total, a 3.8% YoY increase. 
  • Helicopter passengers made up 87,050 of the total, a 15.3% YoY increase. 

LEISURE LETTER (07/24/2015) - MPEL, MGM, CCL - McCarran June Numbers

Takeaway: McCarran continues to exhibit strong visitation numbers.


Louisiana GGR June - SSS: (8.25%) YoY 

Takeaway: Smoking ban taking its toll. June overall was a little softer than expectations but we are projecting a strong July comeback, potentially up 5% in same store regional gaming revenue.

 

South Korea Visitation- The number of foreign tourists visiting South Korea fell 41% YoY in June, due to fears about an outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in that country, statistics showed and officials confirmed.  South Korean casino operator Paradise Co Ltd – which runs venues catering only for foreign players – saw a 50.2% YoY decline in casino sales in June, the firm had said in a filing to the Korea Exchange on July 6.  The June 2015 inbound tourism numbers showed approximately 750,900 arrivals, compared to 1.27 million in the year-prior period, said the Korea Tourism Organization.

ARTICLE HERE 

 

Malta Cruise Traffic - Cruise passenger statistics published for the second quarter of 2015 show a 66.4% YoY increase for Malta.  The number of cruise ships calling in the Maltese Islands grew from 89 calls in April to June 2014 to 108 calls this year. For the first six months of the year, traffic is up 39.9% YoY.  Malta’s cruise sector is on a growth curve particularly as a result of a number of positive initiatives, said the tourism authority, ranging from strong performance by MSC and Costa, along with TUI homeporting.

ARTICLE HERE 

 

UBER in Las Vegas - Cab company owners attending Thursday's Nevada Taxicab Authority session called it the most important meeting in the board'€™s history.  An industry proposal that deregulates several aspects of cab licensing won approval, setting the stage for a more competitive environment between cabbies and contracted Uber and Lyft drivers.  

  • Owners applauded after the board's 4-0 vote that will eliminate time and geographic restrictions on cab medallions and convert them to around-the-clock use in any location in the county. The board also approved the addition of 20 new medallions per company, 10 immediately and 10 more effective Nov. 1. That'€™s 320 more cabs between the 16 companies.

  • The move effectively allows cab companies to convert 791 time-restricted medallions and 433 geographically restricted medallions to unlimited use.

  • The end result is that there will be nearly twice as many unrestricted cabs, 2,730 compared with 1,443, on the road once every restriction is lifted.

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: Taxis trying to remain competitive with Uber.

MACRO 

Hedgeye Macro Team is incrementally bearish on U.S. consumption growth, based on the consumer's continued efforts to deleverage their household balance sheet combined with the peaking of consumer confidence and stagnating labor productivity.   

Takeaway:  For now, US regional gaming slowed in June but North American cruise pricing still doing well.


CHART OF THE DAY: The Russell “Value” Index vs. The Russell “Growth” Index

Editor's Note: The chart and excerpt below are from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. If you would like to stay a step ahead of consensus we invite you to learn more and subscribe.

*  *  *  *  *

...For your “value” friends who don’t do macro cycle work, please send them my way. I have a very basic lesson I learned a long time ago about thinking a cyclical that is tied to commodity #deflation is “cheap”: it’s going to get cheaper.

 

As Darius Dale shows in today’s Chart of The Day, the Russell “Value” index is underperforming the Russell “Growth” index by almost 1,100 basis points (that’s the most since, well, global growth really slowed in the summer last time = 2011).

 

CHART OF THE DAY: The Russell “Value” Index vs. The Russell “Growth” Index  - z dd Chart of the Day

 

 

 


Got Aretas?

“Aretas  meant that competing had shaped you into a better person.”

-Po Bronson

 

No, the highly competitive nature of this profession hasn’t made everyone a “better person.” The fact is that if you want to see someone’s true character, either give them lots of money and power – or hold their #process to account when they are losing.

 

This week was a humbling one for me on that front as many men and women who have a lot more money than I’ll ever have gave so graciously to our growing Hedgeye Cares charity. On behalf of my team, thank you for your Aretas. It matters.

 

In many ways, Homer’s The Iliad and The Odyssey are paeans to aretas. Both Achilles and Odysseus who hone their aretas over the duration of the epic poems. In The Iliad, the questions of why we fight, whom we fight for, and how we maintain honor while fighting help define the aretas. The Odyssey portrays sports prowess, endurance, self control…

 

The Ancient Greeks did not fear that competition bred immoral behavior. They believed that competition taught it.”

(Top Dog – The Science of Winning and Losing, pg 14)

 

Got Aretas? - z km golf 1

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

So forget that it’s a summer Friday and fire yourself up for some competition this morning! Last I checked, Mr. Macro Market doesn’t take vacation. In many ways, this summer is starting to feel a lot like the summer of 2011.

 

But why do we “feel” anything about markets? Can’t we just turn our emotions off and not thirst for victory or cringe at the prospect of defeat? I can’t. And unless you were one of these machines just chasing price momentum, you probably can’t either.

 

What we feel is generally driven by the score of this game. That’s why we play it. Whether you were long SBUX or AMZN into their earnings prints, it’s #timestamped right there in front of you. Yesterday’s Global Macro score was one that left a mark:

 

  1. Most things #Deflation (Commodities and countries/sectors linked to them) have been smoked this week
  2. Credit markets linked to inflation expectation expectations (Energy Junk Bonds) are back at their YTD lows
  3. Dammit, they even sold off the SP500 for a 3rd straight day!

 

#NoWorries though, you can buy Amazon (AMZN) on the Barclays upgrade this morning (+18% pre-market) for 1,000x earnings, or something like that. Heck, that’s cheaper than something biotech that has no earnings at all.

 

I wrote this yesterday and I’ll write it again – in Style Factor terms, if a stock has:

 

  1. SIZE (big cap)
  2. LIQUIDITY (you can get in/out of your position in 1-3 days)
  3. NICE CHART (i.e. price momentum machines can chase)

 

You are all set. That’s why I kept Starbucks (SBUX) on the long side of Real-Time Alerts. Is there a legitimate debate on why the stock shouldn’t trade at 55x earnings if people are willing to chase it at 35x?

 

C’mon, let’s get real here. This has nothing to do with your business school “valuation” models. This has everything to do with what always happens when you can buy neither Global Growth nor Inflation – you have to chase the last growth you can find.

 

For those of you still keeping score on the GROWTH and INFLATION data, here it is this morning:

 

  1. CHINA: PMI slowed (again) in July to 48.2 from 49.4 in June
  2. EUROPE: Germany and France saw their PMIs for July slow (again) to 51.5 and 49.6, respectively
  3. JAPAN: PMI accelerated (again) in July to 51.4 from 50.1 in June

 

Pardon? Buy Japan as both the absolute (rate of change) and relative momentum of its growth factor is beating China and Europe? Yep. That’s the really cool kids’ portfolio – long AMZN, SBUX, and Nikkei!

 

Oh, did I mention that Japan’s rate of change in growth will be accelerating in the 2nd half of 2015 as the beloved navel gazer market (USA) slows? What the un-cool kids own are basically US cyclicals (I think they’re now called “value” stocks):

 

  1. Industrials (XLI) down another -0.9% yesterday (down -4.4% in the last month)
  2. Dow Transports down another -2.1% yesterday (down -4.1% in the last month)
  3. Russell 2000 down another -1.1% yesterday (down -3.0% in the last month)

 

So much for the “global growth is back, buy reflation” idea…

 

For your “value” friends who don’t do macro cycle work, please send them my way. I have a very basic lesson I learned a long time ago about thinking a cyclical that is tied to commodity #deflation is “cheap”: it’s going to get cheaper.

 

As Darius Dale shows in today’s Chart of The Day, the Russell “Value” index is underperforming the Russell “Growth” index by almost 1,100 basis points (that’s the most since, well, global growth really slowed in the summer last time = 2011).

 

I guess that’s why I’m feeling something this morning. I’m all fired up, taking a few shots at the competition (is that impolite while they’re revising GDP growth from 4.0 to 3.0?). Bob, weave, jab – it’s ok to compete. This isn’t Ancient Greece, but it is Wall St.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.24-2.36%

SPX 2093-2130
RUT 1
Nikkei 209
VIX 11.88-14.37
USD 96.62-98.45
Oil (WTI) 48.03-50.95

Gold 1068-1121

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Got Aretas? - z dd Chart of the Day


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

next