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REPLAY: MACAU MAY CONF CALL

View our video replay from our conference call earlier.

 


Cartoon of the Day: Six Flags Over the Economy?

Cartoon of the Day: Six Flags Over the Economy? - Jobs cartoon 06.05.2015


OC: Adding Owens Corning to Investing Ideas

Takeaway: We are adding Owens Corning (OC) to Investing Ideas today.

Please note that we are adding Owens Corning (OC) to Investing Ideas today.

 

We will send out a research note written by Industrials Sector Head Jay Van Sciver for content on the "why" in this weekend's edition of Investing Ideas.

 

According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough:

 

"I’m ready to get people to invest in this one longer-term before I see the company report everything that will take it to higher prices."

 

OC: Adding Owens Corning to Investing Ideas - z oc


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SHAK: Removing Shake Shack from Investing Ideas (As a Short)

Takeaway: We are removing SHAK from Investing Ideas as a short.

Please be advised that we are removing Shake Shack (SHAK) from Investing Ideas today as a short.

 

According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough:

 

Longer-term short, yes – but we really wanted to signal as much between $85-95 to stop individual investors from chasing momentum up there. Now it looks range bound.

 

SHAK: Removing Shake Shack from Investing Ideas (As a Short) - z shak

 



Caution: The Current U.S. Expansion is Late-Cycle. Here’s Why

 

On The Macro Show this morning, Director of Research Daryl Jones explains Hedgeye's quarterly Macro Themes and highlights some slides from the Q2 Themes presentation about economic cycles.

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

 

 

 


THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT

Has a policy maker ever said that “strength” was transitory and “we expect conditions to worsen away from target over the medium term”?.  Anyway, the May employment report was strong pretty much across the board.

 

As always - we’re not big on adding to the noise of manic data reporting on employment Friday but below are some quick highlights.  If you have any specific questions or would like to dig/discuss a particular dimension of the labor market in more depth, let us know.

 

  • Payrolls: RoC Solid -  NFP & Private payrolls improved both sequentially (MoM and 3M/6M MA) and in RoC terms.  March/April get net positive revision of +32K
  • Unemployment Rate & LFPR : Off the Lows - Unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5% but the internals were largely positive with labor participation rising for a second month and the chg in employed > chg in unemployed.
  • Wages: Golf Clap - Both Total Private & Nonsupervisory Worker wage growth accelerated sequentially (from sub-middling to more discretely middling).  ECI and NFIB data continue to suggest forward wage inflation but that been true for a while; material BLS reported wage acceleration has remained a panglossian phantasm. 
  • Slack: Paint Still Drying -  The U-6/Underemployment rate held at 10.8%.  From a Trend perspective every slack chart looks basically the same (charts at bottom below): The labor markets painfully slow march towards tautness remains ongoing.  
  • Housing = Mojo Extends to May:  Residential Construction employment growth re-accelerated (suggesting ongoing health in demand trends) while 25-34YOA employment again accelerated to a new cycle high - headship rates/HH formation will benefit on a lag.
  • Energy Sector: Broad Strength > Concentrated Weakness -  The bleed in Energy sector employment continued in April/May but the concentrated weakness continues to get swamped by the broader labor mkt strength.  
  • (Firm) Size Matters:  Small Firm employment (1-499) growth is carrying the load (+2.5% YoY) according to the latest May ADP data.  Large & Extra-Large Firm employment remains in multi-month deceleration mode currently.   
  • Income/PCE: Its Just Math - The net of rising employment + rising wages + flat hours worked should = another solid month of reported aggregate income growth in May.  Whether that income actually gets spent is a different question but rising income + rising savings remains a positive for the aggregate household PnL/BS. Salary and wage income remains of particular import as it has been the primary source of funds for households as credit growth has remained somewhat muted.  We’ll get the April consumer credit figures this afternoon
  • Policy = Don’t Call it a Comeback:  The May data is probably irrelevant for direct policy action in June but it will likely serve as a backboard in the framing of the June meeting statement (i.e. 1Q probably represented transitory weakness and ‘we expect employment/inflation to trend toward target over medium term’) 

A visual tour of the data is below.  Have a great weekend. 

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - Empl Table

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - Housing Demand 25 34 YOA employment

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - Resi Empl

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - Oil   Gas May

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - Oil Industry April

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - Payroll Growth vs Earnings Growth

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - NFP TTM gains

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - Empl diffusion Indices

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - Available Workers per Job

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - ST Unemployed

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - JOLTS Quits

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - Employment By Firm Size

 

THE SLOW MARCH TO TAUTNESS | MAY EMPLOYMENT - NFIB Jobs Hard to Fill

 

Christian B. Drake

@HedgeyeUSA

 


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